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2015 Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 Bust Candidates

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By @bradberreman24

Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 Busts For 2015

Jose Abreu fantasy baseball
Ed Zurga Getty Images

Digging deeper, and finding what's hiding beneath surface stats, is vital for fantasy baseball owners when trying to determine if a player's top-notch performance from one season is repeatable the next year.

Fortunately I've done some of that work for you, faithful fantasy owner, and here are my top 10 bust candidates for fantasy baseball in 2015.

10. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Carlos Gomez fantasy baseball
Jake Roth USA TODAY Sports

10. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Carlos Gomez fantasy baseball
Jake Roth USA TODAY Sports

Gomez was the only player to top 20 home runs (23) and 30 stolen bases (34) last year, and he hit .284 for the second straight season with a career-high 95 runs scored. His BABIP has been above .330 in back-to-back seasons (.316 career), and it's worth wondering if Gomez's aggressive approach (287 strikeouts, 84 walks over the last two seasons) will begin to erode his numbers at some point. There are a lot better ways to use a first-round pick.

9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

Jonathan Papelbon fantasy baseball
Brett Davis USATODAY Sports

9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

Jonathan Papelbon fantasy baseball
Brett Davis USA TODAY Sports

Papelbon had another good season in 2014, with 39 saves and a 2.04 ERA, but there are signals of downside apart from pitching for the Phillies. Papelbon's fastball velocity is in decline, and his K/9 rate has been 8.5 or lower in each of the last two seasons. If fortune (.247 BABIP allowed, 2.7 percent home run/fly ball rate last year) does not smile on him again this year, Papelbon is set to disappoint fantasy owners even if he is traded soon.

8. Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners

Nelson Cruz fantasy baseball
Christian Petersen Getty Images

8. Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners

Nelson Cruz fantasy baseball
Christian Petersen Getty Images

Cruz was the major league leader in home runs last year with 40, and he has at least 22 round trippers in six straight seasons. Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field is his new home park now though, after spending 2014 in the hitter's haven of Camden Yards, so regression in the power department is all but certain. Cruz is a one or two-category fantasy producer that is likely to decline in both this year, so he looks like a prime bust candidate to me.

7. Fernando Rodney, RP, Seattle Mariners

Fernando Rodney fantasy baseball
Steven Bisig USA TODAY Sports

7. Fernando Rodney, RP, Seattle Marines

Fernando Rodney fantasy baseball
Steven Bisig USA TODAY Sports

Rodney led the big leagues and set a Mariners' franchise record with 48 saves in 2014, and he has at least 37 saves in three straight seasons (133 total). But poor control (3.8 BB/9 last year, 4.4 BB/9 for his career) brings a constant tightrope walk, and it would only take a few disastrous outings to wreck anything else positive Rodney does this season. Don't chase saves here.

6. Zach Britton, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Zach Britton fantasy baseball
Joy R. Absalon USA TODAY Sports

6. Zach Britton, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Zach Britton fantasy baseball
Joy R. Absalon USA TODAY Sports

Britton found a place as Baltimore's closer last year, finishing fourth in the American League in saves (37). He should keep the role and pile up saves this year, but Britton's peripheral numbers (.215 BABIP allowed, strand rate over 80 percent) show a strong likelihood of big regression potential in his ERA (1.65) and WHIP (0.90). There's more than enough downside risk to be hesitant to call Britton's name at the draft table.

5. Torii Hunter, OF, Minnesota Twins

Torii Hunter fantasy baseball
Rick Osentoski USA TODAY Sports

5. Torii Hunter, OF, Minnesota Twins

Torii Hunter fantasy baseball
Rick Osentoski USA TODAY Sports

Hunter maintained fantasy utility all the way through his 30s, averaging 17 home runs, 86 RBI and 81 runs scored per season over the last three seasons, and he is going back to where is career started this year. I think Hunter clearly benefited from having some great hitters around him in Detroit over the last two years, and his counting stats stand to suffer along with his fantasy value with fewer proven hitters around him.

4. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

Francisco Rodriguez fantasy baseball
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

4. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

Francisco Rodriguez fantasy baseball
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

2014 may be called "The Return of K-Rod", as Rodriguez had 44 saves, a 3.04 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 for the Brewers. He was recently re-signed by Milwaukee to be their closer again, but a fortunate BABIP allowed (.216), an elevated strand rate (93 percent, per Fan Graphs), a concerning finish (4.21 ERA from July 8 on) and age (33) say last year will be a pleasant fantasy surprise that is not going to be repeated.

3. Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Russell Martin fantasy baseball
Jonathan Dyer USA TODAY Sports

3. Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Russell Martin fantasy baseball
Jonathan Dyer USA TODAY Sports

Aging catchers are to fantasy baseball what aging running backs are to fantasy football, and Martin fits the former bill at 32 years old. Having a lot of games in Toronto and other AL East parks is good news, but Martin had not hit better than .250 since 2008 before last year (.290, .336 BABIP) and his runs scored total (45) did not matchup with his on-base percentage (.402). Unfortunately for Martin, there's no fantasy category for intangibles.

2. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu Fantasy Baseball
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu Fantasy Baseball
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Abreu made an immediate impact in 2014, hitting .317 with 36 home runs and 107 RBI on his way to American League Rookie of the Year. But an inflated BABIP (.356), a remarkable home run/fly ball rate (26.9 percent) and a ground ball rate (45.5 percent) closer to Ichiro Suzuki's than you'd like would make a full repeat basically unprecedented. Anyone that uses an early first-round pick on Abreu is courting disappointment.

1. Victor Martinez, DH/1B, Detroit Tigers

Victor Martinez Fantasy Baseball
Rick Osentoski USA TODAY Sports

1. Victor Martinez, DH/1B, Detroit Tigers

Victor Martinez Fantasy Baseball
Rick Osentoski USA TODAY Sports

In the PED testing era, it's rare for someone to set a career-high in home runs in his mid-30s. But that's what Martinez did last year with 32, while hitting .335 with 103 RBI. He is working his way back from February knee surgery, which is a concern even though he is on track to be ready for Opening Day. Leaving durability risk aside, Martinez's key batted ball peripherals from 2014 are not likely to be repeated and he belongs atop this list.

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