After sitting out the entire 2014 season following Tommy John surgery, New York Mets pitcher Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA over 26 starts (189.1 innings) last season on his way to earning National League Comeback Player of the Year. Including the postseason Harvey pitched a total of 216 innings, so any talk of an innings limit quickly went by the wayside as the Mets made a run to the World Series.
Harvey’s base peripherals in 2015 (8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 46 percent ground ball rate) were close to his 2013 form (9.6 K.9, 1.6 BB/9, 48 percent ground ball rate), with differences in home run/fly ball rate (10 percent, five percent in 2013) and being vulnerable to left-handed hitters (15 home runs, .676 OPS in 2015).
Harvey showed improvement as last season went on, with a 2.22 ERA, an uptick in ground ball rate (49 percent) and strikeout proficiency (9.3 K/9) over his final 13 regular season starts. That carried over mostly to the postseason, with a 9.1 K/9 rate over four starts (26.2 innings), though Harvey’s strikeout rate did drop to 7.1 over two World Series starts against the whiff-allergic Kansas City Royals.
Now further removed from Tommy John surgery, any talk of an innings limit for Harvey should be gone. The next thresholds for him to cross are 30 starts and 200 innings pitched, and under the assumption of full health those should not be difficult for Harvey to reach in 2016. Add 15 wins (give or take a few on either end), a sub-3.00 ERA and good peripherals to support consistent results, and there’s a lot to like.
There is some health risk to be considered, but I see Harvey as a legit ace for his fantasy baseball owners this year. There’s also real potential to get him at a great value in a draft or auction once the top-tier fantasy starters are gone.