Saves are probably the most unpredictable category for fantasy baseball owners at this time of the year, with a few top-tier closers having the role locked down and flexible situations widely around. That of course leaves out injuries, which shuffle bullpen roles and lead to unexpected closers becoming fantasy assets in-season.
Ken Giles started the 2015 season in a setup role for the Philadelphia Phillies, and after Jonathan Papelbon was traded he took over the closer role. Giles ran off 13 consecutive saves for a bad Phillies team from July 28-Sept. 13, and he wound up converting 15-of-20 save opportunities for the season (15 out of 17 after Papelbon’s departure).
Giles definitely has closer-worthy stuff, with an 11.2 K/9 rate last season, along with solid control (3.2 BB/9 last year) and a good ground ball rate (45 percent). That prompted the Houston Astros to trade for Giles in December, and he immediately became the likely closer for a playoff contender.
But Giles has struggled this spring, with a 8.59 ERA over seven appearances (7.1 innings), and Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated Monday that he was not ready to name a closer. Luke Gregerson had 31 saves for Houston in 2015, and he struck out the side on nine pitches in his spring debut after being sidelined by a left intercostal strain.
It’s been easy to anoint Giles as a top-10 fantasy closer for 2016, with more save opportunities pitching for the Astros and legitimate 40-save upside. Spring training results should not be overblown, but Gregerson was going to be a threat to re-take the ninth inning.
There’s now a question about how Hinch will deploy the back end of his bullpen, which could fluctuate all season even in the best of circumstances, and it’s easy to forecast leaning toward the familiarity Gregerson has from last year. While Giles has something to offer fantasy owners this year, based on strikeouts and holds even without consistent save chances, he has significant bust potential that makes it hard to recommend a significant investment during drafts and auctions.
