Dwayne Bowe Is Valuable–But How Valuable?
The statistical mavens at Football Outsiders have weighed on what the biggest offseason needs are for the Kansas City Chiefs. In an overview of the AFC West published on ESPN.com, Outsiders essentially had a very conservative approach to the offseason lined up. They identify signing Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Carr—the receiver and corner can become free agents on March 13 if not re-signed by KC. And then just let Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki get healthy. Is that sufficient?
If the goal is to win the AFC West then the answer is yes, considering the Chiefs only missed by one game this year while not having any of the injured players around for the duration. A return to the playoffs would certainly be the benchmark goal for the 2012 season, but this Kansas City team does have a chance to do more. As such, making proper use of the cap money available is imperative.
Re-signing Carr should be a no-brainer. He’s a good number two corner behind Brandon Flowers and it’s unlikely anyone would want to pay him more than that. Bowe, on the other hand, is going to be a trickier case. He’s just good enough that teams hungry for a top wideout can drive his market value up. The Washington Redskins are said to be looking for a receiver and Daniel Snyder’s mere presence in a room probably increases a free agent’s value by 50 percent.
With Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson having been franchised, Bowe and Marques Colston are the top receivers who might potentially be available in free agency and that means the odds of it taking big money to sign Bowe goes up exponentially. And I have deep doubts that the receiver is worthy of #1 money. He’s very good in the middle-to-short passing game, and his ability to break tackles makes him even more effective. But is it unreasonable to think that a big-time receiver should be a real deep threat? I don’t think so.
I would classify Bowe somewhere in between a #1 and #2. He’s good enough to be the first option on a playoff team, but in an ideal world he would be the second target behind a speedy deep threat. If someone overpays him on the open market, it leaves Kansas City with a tough choice—do you let him walk and cause short-term problems on a team that can win the AFC West? Or do you take a longer view and bet that having more resources available and a cadre of young talent will, over time, produce a team that’s even better?
My instinct is to always go with the latter, but given KC’s possibilities for next year with Bowe in the lineup it’s enough to give one pause. Perhaps the ultimate decision on Bowe’s true value will come by looking at what’s available in the draft. And that will be RantSports’ focus here tomorrow.
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[...] is a free agent—or at least will be by March 13—if the Chiefs don’t sign him to a deal. In yesterday’s post we looked at whether Bowe should be retained if the bidding treated him like an elite receiver [...]
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