Dwight Howard’s Addition Signals Lakers are in “All In” Mode
I’ve had this piece planned out in my head for about a month now, but I’ve just been waiting for the Magic and Lakers to stop fooling around and get Dwight Howard a-stepping out of Florida.
Now that he’s gone, I’d like for all of you to understand what the Lakers have planned here by getting Dwight Howard. Getting Howard is just a fraction of the master plan that Mitch Kupchak has created. Kupchak has my vote as the best GM over the past decade for what he’s done with the Lakers and this trade just further proves his ability.
He traded a first-round pick and center Andrew Bynum to wind up with the league’s best center in Dwight Howard. He gave up nothing to get an upgrade at arguably the most important position on the court.
Anyone who thinks that the Lakers first-round pick is worth something is misinformed. The NBA draft talent is always thin at the top, so by the time playoff teams (like the Lakers) select a draft choice, they have basically nothing of really substantive value to choose.
The Lakers have lost Andrew Bynum, but Bynum isn’t that great of a player. Sure, he’s been amazing at times, but when Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal, and Kenny Smith all agree that he’s not being the player that he could be, then you know that Bynum isn’t going to be legendary like a Robinson, a Jabbar or a Shaq.
Plus, after the way Bynum cheapshotted J.J. Barea in the playoffs two years ago, I’d just want his unprofessional attitude gone if I was an LA fan. That kind of conduct is inexcusable. That play was so egregious that there was no question it was intentional. It looked like assault and battery quite frankly.
And it really was the worst way the Lakers could’ve played their last game under Phil Jackson. Of course Phil Jackson didn’t show that he was morbidly embarrassed, but anyone who has watched basketball knows that Phil Jackson is classy and loathes that kind of dirty play.
The best metaphor to describe this deal for the Lakers is they gave up bicycle and a lotto ticket for a motorcycle.
Enough about the great deal for the Lakers and onto the master plan that Kupchak has. This plan is what I’ll call the “All In” plan; an obvious reference to the Texas Hold’em phrase for when a players bets all their chips on one hand.
This plan is like a poker play because it is a gamble for the Lakers, but in this case, it is the best move they can make for their franchise.
The Lakers have won two titles in the last five years while they were considerably much younger than they are now. The team has done what all teams do; it ages and older declining players have to be replaced with younger talent while the team keeps winning.
The problem is the Lakers had to invest a lot of money into loaded contracts with players like Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, and Andrew Bynum. They didn’t want to overspend in free agency and their draft picks were low because they were a playoff team. They had minimal chance of acquiring an amazing talent at the 26-30th pick of any draft.
Thus, as the Lakers have aged, they have not, (and probably could not) get younger talent to replace their roster. Kupchak knows this and has planned accordingly to a strategy.
The Lakers are planning to go “All In” and try to win one or two more titles with a veteran roster of guys near the end of their careers to give them one final hurrah.
After that, they’ll start over with a brand new slate with virtually all of their fat contracts and aging players gone. When that happens, they will have more than enough salary room to sign younger stars in free agency. Maybe they’ll have a losing season and secure a high draft choice that can rebuild for the future.
It is the best move logically for a team that has Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have made their team about Bryant winning championships. That’s why they traded for Pau Gasol a few years ago. Any GM knows that a team that’s focal point is Kobe Bryant has a chance to win because Bryant is a top 100 NBA player ever and a clutch shooter.
The Lakers are not going to give up on chasing the golden trophy and waste Bryant’s last few years as a rebuilding team. They are going to go for it all now and prolong the reconstruction. Why shouldn’t they at their age?
The projected lineup is expected to be Steve Nash at Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Metta World Peace, and Pau Gasol. Gasol would shift from center to power forward with Howard in the lineup. The youngest of the starters is Howard at 26 now with a birthday coming up, and he is the only one under the age of 30.
Bryant will be 34, World Peace will be 33, Gasol is 32, Howard will be 27, with Nash fighting Father Time at age 38. All of these guys are great players. Most of them will have cases for the Hall of Fame, but they aren’t going to be the Lakers of the future. They won’t be the Lakers of the near future. They are going to be the Lakers of the extreme near future and that’s it.
In fact, no one on the team is signed beyond the 2013 season except Nash (through 2014). Of course, the Lakers will do their best to extend Dwight Howard obviously, but as of this moment, the grand majority of this team supposedly vanishes within two years.
If we assume that Kupchak does re-sign Bryant, Gasol, and World Peace for another year and extends Howard for however long they do, then the Lakers simply have three years to win with these five starters on the floor. Maybe just one if Howard is not extended.
Three years is a long time for a high school teenager. Three years is a long time for a child. Three years is not a long time for an NBA player.
Can this plan work? Absolutely. It will be hard because the Lakers are still aged and the Heat are a stacked team period, but I expect the Lakers to seriously contend for the next two-three years. Then they’ll have to rebuild around Dwight Howard should they sign him to a longterm deal.
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This ‘all in’ plan is brilliant because the Lakers have a strong chance of winning a title or two in the near future. And when Kobe/Gasol/Artest are off the books, they will have plenty of room to sign new stars. I believe Love is a FA when all this happens. I am also fairly confident D12 will resign with the Lakers, which leads to the Lakers building around him. Basically, Mitch Kupchak is an amazing GM.