Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE
Besides the odd facial hair decisions and stirrup socks, Derek Holland is a very good pitcher for the Texas Rangers. He has a 4.42 ERA in 2012, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. In his last eight starts, he has a 2.93 ERA. The last of those eight starts came Wednesday night in a 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO performance against the Los Angeles Angels. He finished strong in 2011 as well, posting a 3.06 ERA in the second half of the season. Prior to the 2012 season, he signed a five-year extension with the Rangers that also had two additional team option years for 2017 and 2018. He is a 25-year old left-handed pitcher that has proven he can be a stud, and the Rangers are betting on that to continue.
There is one way, however, that I think Holland could improve and sustain his success beyond what he has accomplished to this point in his career: throw his change-up more often.
It’s not that Holland’s change-up is his best pitch. His best pitch is actually his fastball, which he has thrown 77% of the time over his career, and done so quite effectively. However, Holland does have a very good change-up. It was one of the reasons that he scaled the Rangers’ minor league system so quickly, as his change-up showed signs of being a plus pitch in the minors. During his time in the major leagues, though, Holland has thrown his change-up the least of any of his pitches. After the majority fastballs, he has thrown 13% sliders, 10% curveballs, and 9% change-ups.
The change-up has the potential to be one of the most effective tools for a pitcher to have in his bag. Obviously, its main attraction is that it appears to be a fastball, only it keeps a hitter off balance by coming in slower, and so it disrupts the hitter’s timing. This makes a change-up work on its own, but also makes the fastball more effective, as hitters can’t only time the fastball with no respect for the change of speed. A slider and curveball can also disrupt hitter timing, but not to the same degree as the change-up, as the spin and breaking action of a slider and curveball make it easier to recognize.
Some of the best pitchers in baseball are so effective because they have the best change-ups in the game. Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, and James Shields possess some of baseball’s best change-ups, and they aren’t shy about using them. Hernandez throws his change-up 15% of the time, Strasburg 16% of the time, and Shields a shocking 26% of the time. As far as effectiveness goes, Hernandez gets whiffs on his change-ups 20% of the time, Strasburg 30%, and Shields 21% of the time; all higher than the whiff rates of any of their other pitches by far.
One of the reasons the change-ups of Hernandez, Strasburg, and Shields are so good is that they significantly adjust when they throw their change-ups, based on what the count is and from what side of the plate the hitter stands on. For example, against right-handed hitters, Felix Hernandez throws his change-up just 4% of the time when the batter is ahead in the count, and just 8% of the time when the count is even. Once Hernandez is ahead in the count, or has two strikes on right-handed hitters, he throws his change-up 22% and 28% of the time respectively. Shields and Strasburg follow similar patterns. The usage patterns against left-handed hitters follow a similar pattern for all three pitchers, but aren’t so extreme. Holland, as a left-hander, rarely throws his change-up to left-handed batters, just 2% overall. His usage patterns against left-handers doesn’t change much based on the count, either. He uses his change-up more against right-handers, but he actually uses it less when he is ahead in the count or has two strikes on the hitter than when he is behind in the count. Essentially, Holland currently uses his change-up backwards from how Hernandez, Strasburg, and Shields do.
Because that is a lot of words that may not help as much as a picture would, here is a handy little table that better illustrates the point. You can see the difference between how Holland uses his change-up compared to the other three very good change-up pitchers I have selected.
Holland’s change-up can be very good. It could be made even better if he used it similarly to how these three change-up artists do. Throw it more often, especially to left-handed hitters, and especially more when ahead in the count. While Holland’s whiff rate on his change-up is just 8% and pales in comparison to Hernandez, Strasburg, and Shields, perhaps that whiff rate would increase if he threw his change-up in more advantageous situations.
If Holland’s change-up becomes a more effective pitch, and is used more judiciously, it would round out his arsenal of pitches, and possibly improve his fastball, slider, and curveball as well. That could provide Holland with that extra step to becoming a permanent stud in the Rangers’ rotation, and perhaps plant him at the top of the Rangers’ rotation.
Thank you to brooksbaseball.net and their easily accessible and readable PitchF/X data, which is a crucial tool to this kind of analysis.
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