Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
When will Kyle Gibson be ready for the bigs?
That’s a question that the Minnesota Twins have been asking themselves over the better part of last two months. Of course, ready is a bit of a loaded word here; obviously, the former top prospect has shown that he hasn’t been overwhelmed at the major league level … at times. Having allowed three or fewer runs in five of his nine big league starts, with all but one of them lasting as least five innings, he’s shown that he can at last hang around.
As to whether he’s actually ready in the sense that he can contribute to the team’s success, though … well, that’s a different story.
And that story depends on how you look at it, really. On one hand, there’s the right-hander who gutted out a relatively decent no-decision for the second time in a row on Wednesday, going 5.1 innings against the Cleveland Indians and allowing three runs on six hits, two walks, and one hit batter while striking out three.
In fact, until that sixth inning when he ran out of gas at 88 pitches, he’d allowed just two runs on four hits and a walk — not exactly too shabby.
Then again, there is the guy who’s still seemingly getting acclimated to his post-Tommy John surgery routine, getting the hook before he’d thrown his 90th pitch for the second time in his last three starts … the last one being a brutal three-inning, four-run nine-hitter against the lowly Houston Astros.
On that side of the picture, there’s a guy with a 6.27/1.63 ERA/WHIP, along with a .317 BAA that says he’s not fooling a whole lot of people in his first go in the bigs — 1.69 GB/FB rate or not.
In that sense, regardless of the positivity that he may have brought to the Twins in certain starts, the -0.1 fWAR says that he is by no means ready for his level. Not yet, anyway; he’s getting hit too hard, too often, and his 5.13 K/9, 3.42 BB/9 and 1.33 HR/9 on top of that are positively Kevin Correia-esque.
Now, that’s not to say that Minnesota can’t necessarily find value there even if that’s where he tops out, but that’s hardly the impact they expected from someone who’d been one of their top pitching prospects, yes?
That said, it bears repeating that 47.1 innings of work isn’t nearly enough of a sample to really evaluate a pitcher’s performance in earnest; having been set back by his arm troubles, Gibson’s development to the bigs has been delayed, and he undoubtedly has his share of time and innings to really start getting over that MLB learning curve.
Still, Tommy John survivor or not, time waits for no one; and at 25-years old, Gibson is either ready (or at least showing consistent signs that he is), or he’s going to end up treading into his age-26 season in that territory where prospects are no longer prospects, and that no good B word gets passed around.
And well … let’s just say he has his work cut out for him to do the former this season after his first nine starts.
