Charles LeClaire- USA TODAY Sports
The St. Louis Cardinals have a great problem on their hands: they have too much pitching. The Cardinals’ rotation was a big strength in 2014, and it will benefit them again in 2015. Given their plethora of quality pitchers, how will the club sort out their rotation heading into 2015?
The top three of the Cardinals’ rotation is a lock, as Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and John Lackey will occupy these spots. Both Wainwright and Lynn were among the best pitchers in the National League in 2014, each posting sub-3.00 ERAs. Lackey, meanwhile, had a 4.30 ERA since coming over from the Boston Red Sox via a mid-season trade, but his $500,000 salary for 2015 makes him a great value nonetheless.
For the last two spots, there will be a competition. Michael Wacha might seem like a lock for the fourth spot, but he is not a sure thing. After suffering an injury and missing part of June and all of July, Wacha did not have a successful return to the rotation, posting a 5.40 ERA in four September starts. Wacha certainly has the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation, but he will need to have a good spring training to alleviate worries that he has lost his form.
Shelby Miller seemed like one of baseball’s up-and-coming pitchers after posting a 3.06 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in his 2013 rookie season. But in 2014, he regressed, throwing to a 3.74 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Last year Miller looked like he would be a big part of the Cardinals rotation for years to come, but after his disappointing 2014 season there is a chance he could be passed up in favor of other options.
Miller and Wacha will compete for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, and they will be joined by a trio of less experienced arms. Carlos Martinez was one of the top prospects in baseball before making his big league debut in the Cardinals’ bullpen in 2014. He was inconsistent in that role, posting a 4.03 ERA, 8.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, but he turned things on at the end of the year, posting a 1.71 ERA in August and September. Martinez could remain in the bullpen because of inconsistent command, but he has the best pure stuff of any Cardinals’ pitcher not named Wainwright, and keeping him in the bullpen long-term is wasting his talent.
Also competing will be left-hander Marco Gonzales, a 2013 draftee who shot through the system to end up on the Cardinals’ playoff roster. He posted a 2.43 ERA in the minor leagues this season, and while he will not be dominant in the big leagues, his good command and pitchability makes him a solid bet to be a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation arm soon.
The last competitor is a fairly unheralded player in lefty Tim Cooney, who has a legitimate shot to crack the rotation soon. Cooney was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft, and he’s risen up in the system quickly, spending all of this season at Triple-A. He posted a solid 3.47 ERA, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 at the level in 2014. Cooney does not have quite the stuff that Gonzales does, but he has plenty of polish, and he is ready to be a back-end starter in the big leagues.
So with all of that in mind, the Cardinals have plenty of decisions to make. In the end, the rotation will be as follows: Wainwright, Lynn, Lackey, Wacha and Martinez. Their amount of pitching will give them the ability to flip an arm for a much-needed bat, and the pitcher most likely to be dealt is Miller. He disappointed in 2014, but he has enough intrigue given his past success and age, and he will bring a solid return in a trade. Martinez would take his spot in the rotation, and though some development is still needed, he could turn into a topflight starter before too long.
Meanwhile, Gonzales and Cooney will return to Triple-A, and they will be available when an inevitable injury or two occurs. Jaime Garcia could also end up factoring in, but given his health issues he cannot be trusted to do so. Overall, this is a solid bunch of starters for the Cardinals, and it will be what puts them in the middle of contention once again in 2015.
Drew Jenkins is an MLB writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrewJenkins77, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.
