Kansas City Royals’ Alex Gordon Is Most Underrated Player In Baseball

By Drew Jenkins @DrewJenkins77 on November 5, 2014

In baseball front offices, the key today is not necessarily getting the best player, but getting the most value out of a player for the lowest cost.

It all started with the Moneyball movement in which the Oakland Athletics figured out that on-base percentage was an underrated quality, and thus it did not cost as much as batting average and slugging percentage despite being more valuable than both. On-base percentage is now valued how it should be, but that does not mean that teams still cannot find a way to win with underrated qualities.

Look no further than this year’s Kansas City Royals. If you look at the club, it was not star-studded by any means. James Shields is the most recognizable name, but after that, you get into the likes of Billy Butler and Salvador Perez, both quality players, but neither of whom have established themselves as superstars. Still, the Royals had success because they found underrated qualities in players, and they ultimately lost in Game 7 of the World Series by just one run.

A huge part of this success was due to left fielder Alex Gordon. Though he is a decently respected player, Gordon does not get nearly the amount of credit that he should, and the average baseball fan would not consider him a superstar. However, Gordon is the most underrated player in baseball, and his value was a big reason why the Royals were so successful in 2014.

Gordon’s bat is solid, and that adds to his value. He is a career .268/.345/.425 hitter, showcasing a nice mix of contact, on-base and power abilities. His career wRC+ is 112, meaning he has been a 12 percent above league average hitter, and he also has a solid .342 career wOBA.

In 2014, Gordon was solid once again with the bat, posting a .266/.351/.432 line with a 122 wRC+ and a .346 wOBA. Gordon’s .310 BABIP on the year may seem high and is above league average, but it is actually lower than his career .320 mark, so it is not something to read into. Because of his year at the plate, Gordon was worth 21.3 runs above the league average hitter (5.9 of these runs account for Gordon’s solid baserunning) according to Fangraphs’ Off stat.

This means he was worth approximately two wins for the Royals on offense alone, a solid mark in and of itself and certainly a valuable one to the Royals.

Defense is still an underrated quality in baseball, and that is where Gordon makes up most of his elite value. The problem with defense it that there are still many old-school thinkers in baseball. These folks have not fully accepted that defense can be just as valuable as offense, and thus defense can still go unnoticed. It certainly gets more credit than it used to, but it remains an undervalued quality. Thus, Gordon is undervalued in large part because he does not get enough credit for his defense.

Gordon came up with the Royals as a third baseman, but first ventured into the outfield in 2010, becoming a full-time outfielder in 2011. The move was of huge benefit to Gordon, and he quickly went from a defensive liability at third to plus defender in left field. In his first season as a full-time outfielder, Gordon posted a solid 12.2 UZR, and he was sixth in baseball among all positions with 20 defensive runs saved.

Gordon’s defensive prowess has continued since his initial transition to the outfield. From 2011-2014, his 87 DRS is second in baseball behind Andrelton Simmons‘ 88 mark, and his 13.5 UZR/150 ranks sixth in MLB over that time. Gordon’s defense has not necessarily gone unnoticed either, as he’s won an AL Gold Glove award in each of the last four seasons.

In 2014, however, Gordon’s defense reached a whole new level. He posted an unreal 25.0 UZR, which was tops in baseball among qualified position players, and also had 27 DRS, good for fourth in the league. Thanks to that, Gordon was worth 17.9 runs above the average defender according to Fangraphs’ Def stat. Clearly, Gordon is among the best defenders in baseball.

Put Gordon’s above-average offense and plus defense together, and he was worth 6.6 fWAR and rWAR in 2014. His 6.6 fWAR tied him for third in baseball, and his 6.6 rWAR put him sixth in the league. This is not the only success he has seen though. From 2011-2014, Gordon has posted a 5.6 fWAR or above in three seasons, and he still had a more than respectable 3.5 mark in the other.

Over that time, Gordon’s 22.3 total fWAR ranks him seventh among baseball. Still, rWAR ranks him even better, giving him a 6.3 mark or better in three of four seasons, and valuing his 2013 season at 3.9 wins above replacement.

Because of how great Gordon has been over the past few years, his salary has been of huge value to the Royals. In fact, Gordon’s career $28,793,000 earnings (per Baseball Reference) seem measly considering how much value he has produced. Even the $10 million he made in 2014 seems like a great deal.

How much money that one win above replacement is worth is a bit up for debate, but it is generally agreed to be worth between $5 and $7 million. Even when using the lower end of this range at $5 million, Gordon was worth $33 million of value in 2014, which results in a surplus value of $23 million.

It looks even crazier if you put it in the context of 2011-2014. Using fWAR, Gordon has created $85.1 million of surplus value in that timeframe. Simply put, the Royals are getting an incredible amount of production for a great cost.

It is clear that Gordon is the most underrated player in baseball. Even after the Royals advanced to a World Series, he is not a household name among baseball fans. Yet, various metrics rank him as one of the best players in baseball thanks to a solid bat and outstanding defense. Gordon is under contract with the Royals for 2015 at $12.5 million, and he has a club option for 2016 at the same value. Barring injury, he will continue to represent one of the best values in all of baseball.

Drew Jenkins is an MLB writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrewJenkins77, “Like” him on Facebook, add him to your network on Google, or contact him at [email protected]