Signing Michael Cuddyer Is A Worthwhile Roll Of The Dice For New York Mets

By Brad Faber @Brad_Faber on November 17, 2014

Last week, the New York Mets addressed their outfield situation by signing Michael Cuddyer to what was reported to be a two-year, $21 million deal. While Cuddyer cost the Mets their first-round draft pick (No. 15 overall), inking the grizzled, 14-year MLB veteran could in fact turn out to be a great move.

Yes, signing Cuddyer is a bit of a risk, too, and it is fair to raise concerns about his age, recent history of injuries and fading defense. Cuddyer will turn 36 years old in March, and he has not played in 140 or more games since 2010. Admittedly, advanced metrics have not been kind to Cuddyer’s glove work for quite a while now either.

Cuddyer has posted a negative UZR and UZR/150 in the outfield in four of the past five seasons. He has received marginally better marks at first base, however, where the Mets may want to consider playing him against left-handed pitching. After all, power-hitting Lucas Duda slashed only .180/.264/.252 against LHP in 2014, indicating that the big lefty could indeed use a righty-swinging platoon partner when a southpaw is on the hill.

If Cuddyer can remain healthy and give the Mets roughly 125 or more games, the career .279 hitter may very well be able to provide the thunderous type of right-handed bat that New York has reportedly been coveting, which would help make his defensive woes tolerable.

Since leaving the Minnesota Twins for the Rockies back in 2012, Cuddyer has put up a line of .307/.362/.525 in 1139 plate appearances over the past three seasons. His best year came in 2013, when he won a batting title while slashing .331/.389/.530 with 20 home runs, 84 RBIs, a .396 wOBA and 138 wRC+ through 130 games. He was also worth 2.4 fWAR in 2013, which tied the third-highest mark of his career.

Although he was limited to 49 games in 2014, Cuddyer continued to put up very good numbers, posting a line of .332/.376/.579 with 151 wRC+ and a 1.5 fWAR. He also batted a robust .412 in limited action against southpaws.

Obviously, when a player goes to Colorado and finds success or experiences something of a career renaissance, many immediately point to the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field as a contributing factor. It may indeed be fair to note that Cuddyer never hit .300 before putting on a Rockies uniform. However, while he certainly hit well in Colorado, batting .329 at home over the past three seasons, he was pretty solid on the road as well.

Through 70 road games in 2013, Cuddyer batted .311 with an .852 OPS. He also batted a respectable .282 with a .734 OPS on the road this year, which should prove that he is more than capable of providing steady offense away from Colorado.

Another valuable factor that Cuddyer will be bringing to the Mets is his ability to make consistent contact. His career strikeout rate of 17.8 percent is not exactly as spectacular as say, Don Mattingly‘s 5.8 mark, but it is certainly nothing to sneeze at either. As seen in the following chart, Cuddyer has been striking out at a rate of around or below the league average for a number of years now, and he has seemingly been improving with age.

Certain Mets such as Duda and Curtis Granderson are not strangers to the strikeout, posting K-rates last season of 22.7 and 21.6 percent respectively. Therefore, the team should surely appreciate the presence of a player like Cuddyer who has the ability to put the ball in play with greater regularity.

There is also some evidence to show that Cuddyer has become a little bit more of a line drive hitter as he has grown older, posting a line drive rate of over 20 percent in each of the past three seasons, according to Fangraphs. The ability to drive the ball in the gaps will indeed be important when moving to Citi Field, which is known for being a pitcher’s park.

Throughout his career, Cuddyer has also shown the ability to get on base at an above-average clip as well, posting a .347 career OBP and a .352 wOBA. Duda led the Mets with a solid .349 OBP in 2014, but Ruben Tejada was the only other player with a minimum of 200 plate appearances to post an OBP north of .340.

It should also be noted that Cuddyer has posted an OPS higher than .800 in each of the past four seasons. He has also hit 30 or more doubles five times since 2006, and he has an above-average career ISO of .188 as well. Although the Mets will most likely not be getting the player who belted 32 homers and drove in 94 runs for the Twins back in 2009, they will be getting a guy who can get on base frequently and still has plenty of extra-base power to boot.

While there may indeed be a few Mets fans who are less than thrilled about losing their first-round draft pick to sign an injury-prone player, New York’s window to compete may be right now. Any potential 2015 first-round draft pick will most likely not be able to contribute at the big-league level until 2018, when Granderson’s contract will be up and David Wright will be 35 years old himself.

It should further be noted that the Mets finished the 2014 campaign in third place in the NL East with a respectable 79-83 record. With Matt Harvey returning to complete a solid yet crowded pitching rotation, many felt that the Mets might be in pretty good shape heading into 2015 if they could find a shortstop and upgrade their outfield.

With the exception of center fielder Juan Lagares, it is not a secret that the Mets’ outfield scuffled a bit in 2014. Granderson had a bit of a disappointing first season with the Mets, batting only .227/.326/.388 with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and a BABIP of just .265. The Mets also signed Chris Young to a one-year deal last winter, but he was released in mid-August after a rather poor showing with the Mets, batting only .205/.283/.346 through 88 games. If Cuddyer can avoid the injuries, he should be able to provide an easy boost.

Considering how thin the remaining crop of free agent outfielders is this winter, it is hard to fault GM Sandy Alderson for taking an interest in Cuddyer. Sure, Nelson Cruz might fit the description of a right-handed, power-hitting corner outfielder, but he received the majority of his at-bats in 2014 as the Baltimore Orioles‘ DH, which is a role he obviously couldn’t have had with the Mets in the NL.

Like Cuddyer, Cruz would have cost the Mets a draft pick too, as he turned down the O’s qualifying offer.

Lastly, at two years and $21 million, Cuddyer’s contract is rather team-friendly. Considering the type of bat he can bring to the table when healthy, signing him should prove to be a worthwhile gamble. Cuddyer may be getting a little bit long in the tooth and the Mets surely know it is a roll of the dice, but they also know how high the potential reward might be.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and ESPN.com

Brad Faber is a Detroit Tigers writer and Sabermetrics columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.