David Robertson Is Not Worth Jonathan Papelbon Money

By Drew Jenkins @DrewJenkins77 on December 1, 2014

There is no question that the best reliever on the open market this offseason is David Robertson, who has been the New York Yankees‘ setup man for years before seamlessly taking over for Mariano Rivera as the closer in 2014. As such, it makes sense that Robertson would demand a sizable contract.

However, his reported demand for a contract similar to the four-year, $50 million deal that includes a $13 million club option signed by Jonathan Papelbon prior to the 2012 season is absurd.

First of all, Papelbon was a much better reliever than Robertson prior to signing his deal. From 2005 to 2011, Papelbon threw to a 2.33 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. His 2.60 FIP also attests to his dominance. Not counting his partial 2005 season, Papelbon was worth 15.3 fWAR over that time, an average of 2.55 WAR per season. According to Fangraphs, Papelbon produced $65.2 million worth of value on the mound in that time frame.

Robertson has been impressive in his Yankees career, but he has not been as good as Papelbon was. Since cracking the Yankees’ bullpen in 2008, Robertson has posted a 2.81 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 12.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He has been worth 8.9 fWAR (not counting a partial 2008 season), an average of 1.48 per year, which is well off Papelbon’s mark. Fangraphs estimates that he has been worth $43.8 million over that time, which is $21.4 million less than Papelbon was worth over a similar time frame.

Papelbon was also a better reliever in his last few years prior to free agency than Robertson has been. Over his final three seasons with Boston prior to signing with the Philadelphia Phillies, Papelbon was worth 6.6 fWAR and produced $28.8 million of value compared to Robertson’s 5.0 fWAR and $24.9 million of value over his past three seasons. Papelbon also posted a 3.2 fWAR the season before he hit free agency, while Robertson was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2014.

Also, Papelbon came with the added benefit of having spent more time in a closer’s role. He took over the Boston Red Sox’s closer job in just his second year in the big leagues, and prior to hitting free agency, he had racked up 219 saves. Meanwhile, Robertson has only spent one year of his career in a closer’s role, and he only has 47 saves to his name.

The number of saves is certainly not indicative of how a player is going to perform in the ninth inning, but the more experience the better, and Papelbon clearly had more experience.

Also, in terms of pure value, Robertson will not be worth that type of money. The four-year, $50 million deal that Papelbon signed comes with an average annual value of $12.5 million. According to Fangraphs, Robertson has never once in his career produced $12.5 million of value in a single season, and he has only even topped $10 million one time.

Even if everything goes perfectly, Robertson stays healthy and he does not lose his form with some age, he would be highly unlikely to produce even neutral value over the life of a contract valued similar to Papelbon’s. If anything went wrong, the deal would go from a bad contract to a disaster for whatever team signed him.

In fact, Papelbon himself is a cautionary tale that no reliever is worth “Papelbon money.” In the first three years of his deal, he has continued to pitch well, posting a 2.45 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. He has racked up 106 saves and has remained one of the better closers in baseball.

Despite that, Papelbon has been worth just 4.0 fWAR in those three seasons combined, and has produced just $20.4 million of value. Those marks are both solid for a reliever, but considering that Papelbon has made $37 million over the last three years, he still has not been able to come close to producing even value so far in his deal.

Also, Robertson’s age means that he could experience some regression. He will pitch almost all of 2015 at age 30, meaning that he would be 33 years old by the end of a four-year deal. Over the past 10 years, a reliever over 30 has posted an fWAR of 1.5 or above only 86 times. Meanwhile, relievers under 30 have put up that mark 124 times.

Papelbon has not seen a significant decline with age, but at the same time, Robertson is more prone to regression as he gets older. He has relied more on pure stuff than Papelbon over his career, as evidenced by his career 12.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. While Papelbon has great stuff too, he has much better control and command than Robertson, as evidenced by his career 2.3 BB/9.

Because of this, a decline in his stuff with age is likely to affect Robertson more. Papelbon can get away with lessor stuff because of his good control, and he has posted solid results over the last three seasons despite the fact that his fastball has seen a significant, consistent drop in velocity.

At what age Robertson begins to lose his stuff remains to be seen, and he may not see a decline until later in the deal he signs this offseason. However, the fact that he is so dependent on his stuff is just one more reason why he is not as desirable as Papelbon was prior to signing his deal.

Also, relievers are being valued less and less in recent years. To put it in perspective, three relievers signed for more than $25 million in the 2011 offseason alone. In the 2012 and 2013 offseasons, only one signed for that guarantee. Another indicator is that the average reliever made $2.1 million in 2010, compared to 2.2 million in 2013, an increase of just 4.8 percent despite a roughly 12.6 percent increase in the average big league salary over that time.

Robertson is the best free agent reliever and one of the better relievers in baseball, and he should be paid like it. However, even he is not worth the purported four-year, $50 million deal like Papelbon signed three years ago. Whether a team complies with that demand remains to be seen, but if one does, the deal will be destined to fail from the beginning.

Drew Jenkins is an MLB writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrewJenkins77, “Like” him on Facebook, add him to your network on Google, or contact him at [email protected].