Moving To Bullpen Could Save Chicago Cubs’ Edwin Jackson

By Brad Faber @Brad_Faber on January 8, 2015

More than two years ago, the Chicago Cubs inked veteran pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal. The Cubs had previously been rumored to have heavy interest in Anibal Sanchez, who ultimately remained with the Detroit Tigers after signing a five-year, $80 million deal. Bringing the journeyman Jackson aboard appeared to be the North Siders’ plan B.

At the time, Jackson was in the middle of his prime at 29 years of age, and he was coming off of a respectable season with the Washington Nationals, going 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in a 2.3 fWAR campaign. His 3.85 FIP and 3.79 xFIP indicated that he may have been an even better hurler than his traditional numbers might otherwise lead one to believe. Plus, he also posted a career-best 3.82 SIERA.

While the contract still seemed like somewhat of an overpay and it would be fair to say that no one was expecting Jackson to do what Sanchez did for the Tigers in 2013, it appeared that he would be a guy who could chew up innings and post middle-of-the-rotation-type numbers.

Since joining the Cubs, however, Jackson’s career has taken a turn for the worst. In 2013, Jackson went 8-18 with a 4.98 ERA and a rather inflated 1.46 WHIP. An above-average BABIP of .322, which was up from his mark of .278 in 2012 with the Nationals, suggested that luck simply may not have been on his side that year.

The good news, however, was that he still had a 3.79 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP while managing to muster a 1.9 fWAR. That being said, bWAR was harsher on the right-hander, pegging him at -1.3 wins.

Last season, things went from bad to worse for Jackson as he posted a record of 6-15 with a 6.33 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He also saw his BABIP rise all the way up to .352. Although his FIP and xFIP were each lower than his ERA once again, they were elevated as well at 4.45 and 4.12 respectively. While he was still worth 0.5 fWAR, he dropped all the way down to -2.3 bWAR.

Throughout his career, Jackson has had his share of good luck and bad. Many still consider his 2009 season, which he spent with the Tigers, to be one of his best campaigns to date. While he did throw a career-high 214 innings and had a very respectable 3.62 ERA while posting a career-best 3.7 fWAR that season, a close look at his advanced numbers will reveal that he may have been getting a bit fortuitous.

In 2009, Jackson had a 4.28 FIP and 4.32 xFIP, and some of his success may have quite arguably been aided by a .276 BABIP. As seen in the chart below, it is quite interesting to note that Jackson posted a FIP (and xFIP for that matter) under 4.00 in four consecutive seasons after leaving the Tigers, when he bounced around between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Nationals and Cubs.

The streak, of course, finally came to an end last year.

The Tigers were a rather strong defensive team in 2009 as evidenced by their 32.6 Def rating and 26.5 team UZR, so Jackson may have benefited from that. While the Cubs posted positive defensive ratings in 2013, their collective glove work took a step back last year. For whatever reason, while Jackson’s struggles over the past two years cannot be blamed entirely on luck, his fortune seems to have done a 180 since joining the Cubs.

So, where does that leave Jackson goes forward? Well, there has been a certain amount of trade speculation surrounding the now 31-year-old, but there is also a rumor that he may be permanently relegated to relief duty in 2015.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Jackson is still owed $26 million over the next two years, so the Cubs might as well try anything they can think of to see if they can get something out of their investment in the second half of the deal. Obviously, an annual salary of $13 million over the next two years may seem a little lofty for a reliever who is not a Jonathan Papelbon-caliber closer. Unless the Cubs can move him, however, there may simply be no other place to put him.

Naturally, the newly-signed Jon Lester figures to be the team’s ace, and it is likely that some combination of Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood will round out the remaining four spots. If this is the case, Jackson would be the odd man out.

Just because he could be pitching out of the Cubs’ bullpen in 2015, however, does not mean that he won’t be valuable in that capacity. In fact, the move may just save Jackson’s career.

Jackson finished out the 2014 campaign in the bullpen, and he also spent plenty of time there earlier on in his career. He received a little bit of work out of the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ bullpen as a youngster, and before becoming immersed in the Tampa Bays Rays‘ starting rotation, he made 22 relief appearances for the then-Devil Rays in 2006, which is his most extensive experience as a reliever to date.

At this point in his career, however, he does have a lifetime 5.56 ERA (4.38 FIP) in relief, which is not too encouraging. That being said, he has posted a 3.04 FIP, a .279 BABIP and a terrific 5.5 percent HR/FB in high-leverage situations according to Fangraphs, so that may well be an indication that he could do well if pressed back into full-time relief duty. He seems to be able to buckle down and get outs when the pressure is on.

Another important factor to point out is that throughout his career, Jackson has been a little bit rough out of the gate, posting a 4.88 ERA through innings 1-3. He has done his best work through innings 4-6, where he has posted a 4.37 ERA, and then he tails off again as he has a lifetime 4.50 ERA through innings 7-9. Perhaps this is a result of trying to pace himself, an issue he would not have to worry about if he were in the bullpen.

Recently, there has been an intriguing crop of players such as Andrew Miller, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, who have learned to excel in relief duty after encountering their share of struggles in the starting rotation. While Miller, Britton and Davis are each a bit younger and made the transition to relief sooner in their respective careers, there is some reason to believe that Jackson could be the next player to experience something of a career renaissance as a relief pitcher.

When it comes to the trio, moving to the bullpen did wonders for each of them. Britton was able to throw his sinker harder and more frequently, turning it into one of the best pitches in baseball, and Miller started airing out his fastball at a greater average velocity as well. Davis and Jackson, however, may be the best comparison as they are both hard-throwing right-handers.

Davis, of course, broke in as a starter with the Rays before spending 2012 in the bullpen. However, it wasn’t until he was traded to the Kansas City Royals along with James Shields when it became abundantly clear that he is most effective as a reliever.

In 2013, Davis had a rather mediocre year while making the majority of his appearances as a starter. In 2014, when he worked exclusively as a reliever, he too started letting his heater and slider fly at a harder average velocity than ever. To make a long story short, he had an elite 13.63 K/9 and ultimately earned an eighth place finish in last year’s AL Cy Young award voting. He clearly seems to have nastier stuff when working out of the pen, where he seems to be able to harness his ability to miss bats.

Jackson, on the other hand, is a little bit different, but comparable nevertheless. In spite of all of his struggles in 2014, his 7.87 K/9 was the second-highest mark of his career, as was his 10.8 swinging strike rate, trailing only the numbers he put up with the Nationals back in 2012.

Although Jackson’s four-seam fastball was not coming in as hard as it was in his younger days, it was still averaging 92.8 mph in 2014. His two-seamer was coming in at 92.2 mph on average. These are both starter numbers where he is pacing himself throughout outings, of course, and the good news for the Cubs is that he was still able to run the heater up to a top speed of 97.2 mph last season when he wanted to.

As seen in the chart below, ever since Jackson became a full-time starter in 2007, he has been the type to save his best gas for later in the game. In a relief role, he may be able to let loose immediately. A Jackson who comes in at 92 mph is a very different guy for batters to face than one who throws darts at 97 mph, and the Cubs should reap the benefits.

When it comes to Jackson’s arsenal, however, the most troubling factor of all may have been that his slider was given a rating of -5.8 in 2014, according to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value data. It was the first time in his entire career that his slider was given a negative value. During his aforementioned season with the Nationals in 2012, the pitch was given a rating of 10.0 runs above average.

Yet, somehow he was still able to rack up his share of strikeouts in 2014, even though he did not appear to have the stuff he once had. So what gives?

Well, the fact that he can still strike batters out is certainly a positive, and while moving to the bullpen may not make him Davis 2.0, it may help him get more out of his fastball and slider once again. If Jackson can prove that he can still run the fastball up there, rediscover his slider and recapture some of the luck that he had in his youth, that could be the formula that is needed to make him an effective reliever.

It is also worth noting that Jackson spent time on the DL with a lat strain in the second half of last season, so there is always the possibility that the injury may have been partly to blame for his struggles as well. After all, his numbers after the All-Star break were even more unsightly than they were in the first half, so staying healthy for the entire season may be another important variable heading into next season.

In 2015, Jackson will also be reunited with Joe Maddon, who he played for from 2006-08 when he was a member of the Devil Rays/Rays, so it will indeed be interesting to see what the renewal of that relationship may in fact bring. The Cubs would be wise to not give up on Jackson just yet.

All statistical information courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, ESPN.com and Fangraphs 

Brad Faber is a Detroit Tigers writer and Sabermetrics columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.