Rant MLB Columnist Roundtable (1/26): NL West Preview

By Thom Tsang @ThomTsang on January 26, 2015

Like its AL brethren, the NL West wasted little time this MLB offseason getting busy, although it has been mostly a two-team show thus far with Spring Training looming quickly. The quantity of moves alone would have provided more than enough talking points for one offseason, but how much were truly quality moves that changed the outlook of the teams involved? Here to give you an NL West rundown are Rant MLB columnists Drew Jenkins (@DrewJenkins77) and Brad Faber (@Brad_Faber).

Thom: Interestingly enough, the team with the most to lose, the defending champ San Francisco Giants, swung and missed on a number of guys they were reportedly after and stayed relatively quiet after that. Are they destined to continue the “every other year” pattern of their burgeoning dynasty?

Brad: I can see them doing quite well on an odd year this season, actually. I like the rotation with Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy, but I do think that they will feel the losses of Pablo Sandoval and even Michael Morse in their lineup. After all, that duo combined for 32 homers last year. As long as they still have Buster Posey and Hunter Pence to lead the way, though, you can’t count this team out.

Drew: Like it has been for many years, the Giants are not really the hottest team on paper going into the season, but they still have a chance to compete and be right in the middle of things. Losing Sandoval hurt, but they did bring in Casey McGehee, who put together a 2.0 fWAR season in 2014. He’ll be serviceable even when the BABIP comes back down to earth. A bounce-back year from Cain could go a really long way too.

Thom: Speaking of the rotation, I think that could actually end up being more of a concern than the lineup in 2015. Currently Steamer projects only one pitcher worth over 1.3 fWAR for the Giants in 2015 — Bumgarner at 3.6. Realistically, everyone else on the staff has question marks surrounding them; who has the most to prove in the starting five?

Drew: You can plug in a number of names here, but Cain has the most to prove. He was one of the better pitchers in baseball for a few years, but two subpar years have to make you wonder if he’s lost it a little. Still, he’s not a dinosaur at 30, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he can still be a top-flight pitcher considering his track record.

Brad: It’s gotta be Cain. There are a lot of question marks with the rotation, but the track record and pedigree are there; if the stars can line up for this team as they have in the past, I really do think the starting five could also be very good. It starts with Cain proving he can still be the guy he was from 2009-2012, though.

Thom: While we’re on the topic of redemption, where do you see Hunter Strickland in 2015? Despite his brutal 2014 postseason, he’s still arguably the most talented arm in the Giants’ bullpen, and Steamer actually has him projected to be the team’s best reliever at 0.7 fWAR in 2015. Will he get a chance to close?

Drew: I mean, it’s hard to put much faith in a guy who has 15.1 innings of experience above the Double-A level. He has talent, but I’m not 100 percent sure he will even start the year with the big league team, let alone end up as their closer. I think Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla will both be ahead of Strickland all season on the ninth-inning depth chart.

Brad: I think that they are going to go with Casilla in that role for now, but based on the promise that he showed during the regular season, I wouldn’t doubt the closer job going to Strickland at some point in 2015. I know it was a small sample size, but I mean, that’s basically all relievers have to work off.

Thom: This team has developed a bit of a habit of surprising others that are perhaps better on paper. What do you think is the biggest thing about the 2015 Giants that will catch the division off-guard?

Drew: I think if everything clicks, the bullpen has a chance to be very good. Romo has been good in the past, Jean Machi, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Yusmeiro Petit and Casilla were all good in 2014, and Strickland has promise.

Brad: Aoki will surprisingly prove to be the perfect fit for that team. He doesn’t bring back much of the power that the Giants lost, but he is a high-average, high-OBP guy, and is also a defensive upgrade over Morse. I think he could help them win a few games.

Thom: A team that probably won’t catch anyone by surprise are the Colorado Rockies, who are projected to finish second-last in the division with a 77-85 record in 2015. Do they have any chance at even a Wild Card spot? Should they have better defined the direction of the franchise this offseason?

Drew: I just do not see the pitching being good enough this year, even if Eddie Butler and Jon Gray factor in. In many ways, this offseason was oddly quiet for them. If they think they can compete, they should have added talent; if not, then they have pieces that they could have dangled in trades in order to get younger.

Brad: They certainly have a few nice offensive pieces in Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado, but I just don’t think that they have the pitching to go anywhere. I thought they would go into full rebuilding mode this offseason, but it didn’t happen. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Charlie Blackmon swapped for some pitching before Spring Training, though.

Thom: I think there would have been good trade partners for the Rockies this offseason if they wanted to engage in trade talks for their big names. There’s still plenty of time for that to happen, though — do you think we will see either Tulo or CarGo, or both, be traded this season? Is there any chance of them making a major trade prior to Opening Day?

Brad: I would be really surprised to see either of those guys moved before Opening Day. Obviously, salary and injury history have been two of the biggest issues here, and a trade involving either is more likely to happen this summer. Even then, I still expect teams to be hesitant to bite.

Drew: The way the Rockies have been, I doubt either will be traded until next offseason at the earliest. It makes sense because both had their injury problems in 2014, and a healthy year from the pair could help boost their trade value.

Thom: It almost sounds like the team might be forced into a hold pattern of mediocrity, at least for 2015. What do you think will be the Rockies’ biggest bright spot this season?

Drew: I really like Arenado, and at 23 years old, I can see him really coming into his own in 2015 and establishing himself as one of the better third basemen in the league.

Brad: They definitely have the potential to have an explosive offense. I also think that Nick Hundley will prove to be a great addition — I think that a lot of teams would have liked to have had him.

Thom: I think the team will really be hoping for a bright spot to emerge in the rotation considering all of the issues they’ve had finding consistently good arms who can pitch at Coors. With the likes of young pitchers Jordan Lyles, Butler and Gray being in the mix now, do you see anyone emerging as a potential leader for that rotation down the line? Do you think they’ll eventually have to throw Tulo-type money at a free agent SP in other to truly compete?

Drew: I think Gray and Butler have the ability to form a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. I’m not sure if they’ll necessarily need to throw a huge contract at one pitcher, but I can definitely see them signing at least a mid-tier starter or two down the road.

Brad: I have a hard time seeing a clear-cut candidate to emerge as the Rockies’ long-term ace, but I do see potential in Gray and Butler. Chad Bettis did have some nice numbers in the minors, too, even though he’s being used as a reliever now. As far as FAs go, it can be pretty difficult to get a pitcher to go to Coors Field.

Thom: While we’re at potential rotation woes, the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ bunch sit at a projected combined 6.7 fWAR by Steamer, which would make them one of the worst in MLB. The team has some veteran win-now pieces, a spiffy new young Cuban star, but also a ton of question marks. Are they bound to fight the Rockies to stay out of the NL West basement in 2015?

Brad: There are definitely too many unknowns in the rotation. Josh Collmenter may have been too good to be true, Jeremy Hellickson has had a couple of rough years, and who knows what they’ll get with Trevor Cahill. I think Patrick Corbin being out really hurts that staff. James Shields would have been a great fit if the DBacks want to make a run, but they are reportedly out of the running. That said, the Arizona offense could be special in 2015.

Drew: I don’t see them being a serious competitor, but I do think they are improved from 2014. They did a good job of adding controllable pieces like Yasmany Tomas, Hellickson, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa that could definitely help in 2015 and beyond.

Thom: With all the controllable young talent but not enough depth to compete, I’m thinking this team will have to turn a bit of the roster over. Do you think a mini-fire sale is looming for the DBacks and guys like Mark Trumbo, Aaron Hill and perhaps Addison Reed?

Drew: While I definitely could see them trying to add more young talent via trade, I do think that the problem here is that their movable pieces like Trumbo, Hill and Reed are all coming off down years. I think if they are going to get traded, it will be in-season or next offseason after they’ve had a chance to re-prove themselves.

Brad: Hill and Reed, maybe. I still think that they will hang on to Trumbo for now, though. Even though they still have plenty of offensive pieces, Trumbo’s power is still special and is a perfect fit for Chase Field. With a surplus of outfielders, I would actually anticipate someone like Ender Inciarte or David Peralta being on the move first.

Thom: When do you think is this team’s window will open, and what do the Diamondbacks have to do to make sure it happens?

Drew: I think you can draw up a scenario where they compete in 2016 if guys like Hellickson, De La Rosa and Webster pan out in their rotation.

Brad: I can actually see their window opening relatively soon, maybe in 2016. With that offense and Corbin returning to the rotation, they may not be too far off. Really, the offense is already there with Trumbo capable of another 30-homer season, and A.J. Pollock putting up 3.3 fWAR in only 75 games in 2014. Tomas is an unknown right now, but I think he’ll make a difference when the Diamondbacks have the pitching to make a run.

Thom: I think the team that gets the most points on the “trying to open a compete window” front, at least effort-wise, has to be the San Diego Padres. Do you think they’ve done their job as far as addressing their biggest weaknesses? Will they be competitive in 2015?

Drew: I really don’t think they are much better than they were before the offseason. The Justin Upton addition was a solid one, but Matt Kemp is a liability defensively and Wil Myers has a flaw in his swing that got exploited big-time last season. Plus, their infield is not good, and I’m not a fan of their pitching staff.

Brad: They’ve made arguably the most noise of all MLB teams this offseason, but there are still quite a few question marks. How will Upton and Kemp hit in Petco? Can Myers play center field? Can Will Middlebrooks bounce back? I think there is a lot that could potentially go wrong. I do think Cashner and Tyson Ross are a solid 1-2, though.

Thom: I was just going to mention Cashner, actually. He’s projected by Steamer to put up a mediocre season in 2015, though his 2014 was solid by both ERA estimators and counting numbers, and he’s still developing his slider. Do you think he’ll take a step forward, and if not, what do you think is holding him back?

Drew: I see Cashner as a very good pitcher, and even an ace when he’s at his best. What holds him back is his health — you can’t produce when you can’t stay on the field.

Brad: Injuries were a major problem for him last year, but at just 28, I think that he could have a few really nice seasons ahead of him. Plus, he has the advantage of pitching in Petco.

Thom: Speaking of injuries, another “name” that generates some intrigue is Josh Johnson. Do you think he’ll be a factor at all in 2015?

Drew: I find it hard to believe that he can do much of anything for the Padres. He just can’t stay healthy, and even when he did pitch in 2013, he was awful. Looking back at it, he wasn’t particularly great in 2012 either.

Brad: It’s possible, but it has been five years now since he was last at the top of his game. He’ll still only be 31, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

Thom: After all the big names they brought in, who is the most overrated player on the 2015 Padres? On the other hand, if they are to compete, who do they need to lead the way?

Drew: Kemp is the most overrated player. He’s a good hitter, but he’s so bad defensively that his value is poor. He was only worth 1.8 fWAR despite a 145 wRC+ last year. In terms of a guy leading the way, Myers could do a lot for the lineup if he reaches his full potential.

Brad: I’m using Kemp for both answers here. He is still a very good player, but it has been four years since he was the elite, 8.4 fWAR superstar. Upton is also a great hitter and serious talent who can make an impact, but if Padres are to seriously compete, Kemp will need to rediscover at least some of the magic he had back in 2011.

Thom: Well, you’re certainly not alone in your lack of love for Kemp in 2015 — just ask the Los Angeles Dodgers, who made just as much, if not more noise than the Padres this offseason. Considering the resources they’ve devoted to building a winning franchise, are the Dodgers now the de facto favorites in the division?

Brad: I certainly consider the Dodgers the class of the NL West. It is hard to go wrong with a team that has Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as their 1-2 punch. I also think that the bullpen is improved, and am curious to see how the new double-play combo of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick will work out.

Drew: I definitely see them as the team to beat in the division. They did a nice job by adding Kendrick, Rollins and Yasmani Grandal, and it is not a stretch that Joc Pederson could outpace Kemp in the outfield, though that’s more because of defense than offense. Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson make a good rotation even better if they can stay healthy.

Thom: It seems like with juggernaut on-paper teams like the Dodgers, the only thing to really discuss is whether something could go wrong. So, let’s go there. What is this team’s Achilles’ heel?

Drew: Age is definitely their Achilles’ heel. Crawford, Rollins, Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Uribe and a host of others are all getting up there age-wise.

Brad: There was a lot of talk about the bullpen headed into the offseason, but I think that they have taken the necessary steps to fix it. Still, if there is one less-strong area than the rest, it’s probably there. I agree with the age factor as well, and Andre Ethier is yet another guy who is starting to get up there.

Thom: Do you see either Carl Crawford or Ethier traded? Or would you rather keep the outfield depth if you’re LA?

Brad: I still think that an Ethier trade is possible, but they will probably hang on to both guys. They would be selling really low on Ethier at this point.

Drew: I think the Dodgers will hold out until one rebounds and they don’t have to eat a ton of money just to make a trade. That could be early this season, it could be next offseason … or it could be never.

Thom: You’ve both mentioned age — how many years do you think this current core has to break through and win a World Series? Are they built for the long run? Does the tradition compete window cycle even apply to LA if they can just dole out money for free agents?

Drew: I think a combination of available funds and a strong farm system means that they can compete in the long haul. They won’t be as reliant on throwing money around with Andrew Friedman running the show, so you won’t see the NL version of the New York Yankees, but they’ll find a way to be relevant for a while.

Brad: With the current group of players, the window is probably about 2-3 years. However, they still have the best pitcher in the game in Kershaw, who will only be turning 27. They will be able to bring in new players and build around him for years to come.

Thom: Let’s finish off with our fictional divisional awards. Your 2015 NL West MVP is …

Drew: Clayton Kershaw. He’s simply in a class of his own right now.

Brad: Paul Goldschmidt. He’s come close enough to it before, and with health on his side, he’ll take home the hardware in 2015.

Thom: I’m also going with Goldschmidt here. He’s easily the best hitter in the division, and one of the best in the game. He’ll be in MVP form all season long. Your 2015 NL West Cy Young is …

Drew: Kershaw, for obvious reasons.

Brad: You just can’t doubt Kershaw here. He’s won the thing three times in the last four years.

Thom: Well, I don’t think I’m necessarily doubting Kershaw, but I’ll go with Bumgarner just to change things up. The playoff performance already launched him to superstardom, and he has the savvy to build on that to give Kershaw a good run for the Cy Young in 2015. Your 2015 NL West Comeback Player of the Year is …

Drew: Wil Myers. It might sound like I’m pretty down on him, but really. he’s a special talent. One with a big hole in his swing, yes, but if he can fix it … watch out.

Brad: Patrick Corbin. It’s going to be tough to come back from a long layoff to make a big impact, but I believe in the skills that led to his breakout.

Thom: He’s basically been a perennial bounce-back candidate, but I’ll go with Brett Anderson.  There’s ace talent and stuff there, and his lack of a repeated injury still makes me believe that he’s just really. really unlucky. Your 2015 NL Breakout Player of the Year is …

Drew: A.J. Pollock. I agree with Brad’s sentiment from earlier — that 3.3 fWAR performance in 75 games is no joke.

Brad: Well, since Drew took my Pollock, I’ll go with his teammate, David Peralta. He was plenty impressive when he finally made it up to the bigs, and I think he’ll be another in a line of successful Arizona bats.

Thom: Brett Anderson again for me … yes, I really like him. Maybe it’s his strong Twitter game, I don’t know. Moving on, your 2015 NL West Bust of the Year is …

Drew: Brandon McCarthy. The talent is there, but I just don’t think he’ll stay healthy in 2015.

Brad: Will Middlebrooks. He has power, but not enough talent with the bat to truly take advantage of it. San Diego will not be a nice place for him to play.

Thom: Matt Kemp for me, if only because expectations are probably a little too high for him. He’ll be an above-replacement player, but not necessarily the great one that the Padres think they’re getting. Lastly, how do you think the NL West will shake out at the end of the 2015 season?

Drew: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies.

Brad: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies.

So, it looks like Dodgers fans will have much to look forward to, while the Padres might not be quite good enough to compete yet, at least on paper. The Giants, of course, could care less about the paper, and you can never count them out … unlike the Rockies, who will need a miracle to break through in this strong division with their pitching. As for the Diamondbacks? Well, it won’t be much better for them in 2015, but at least they know they’ve got a strong preseason MVP candidate handing around.

Follow Thom on Twitter @ThomTsang, or add him to your network on Google.