Rant MLB Columnist One-On-One (2/9): NL Central Preview

By Thom Tsang @ThomTsang on February 9, 2015

Does signing the best player on the free agent market and win a team the MLB offseason? Baseball fans in the Windy City’s North Side are sure hoping that’s the case, and at least one burgeoning first baseman is buying in. That said, the NL Central is a daunting division stacked with stars personnel both on and off the field, and while things have certainly changed to create more parity, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the perennial favorites aren’t necessarily going anywhere just yet.

As we’ll face our own winds of change here, moving from a roundtable discussion format to a one-on-one chat, Rant MLB columnist Brad Faber (@Brad_Faber) is here to help break down one of, if not the tightest division in the game going into 2015.

Thom: I think it’s going to be impossible to frame the 2015 season for the NL Central without starting with the team that. by many accounts, won the offseason. Have Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs completed their rebuild project? How good is this team going to be in 2015?

Brad: They are clearly going to be significantly better this year, though I am still not quite ready to say that they are contenders. That said, I do expect them to be the best they have been since the first few Lou Piniella year. Obviously, the Jon Lester signing was huge, and he’ll head what should be a great rotation with Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood. I also feel the Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler acquisitions could give them the veteran leadership they have been seeking.

Thom: At the very least, they have the Fangraphs stamp of approval. Right now, the projected divisional standings has the Cubs in a dead heat at 84 wins with the St. Louis Cardinals (86) and Pittsburgh Pirates (85). I’m thinking they’re not quite at the top of the mountain yet, but they’re real close. The were supposedly in on James Shields, and I think if they can land a Cole Hamels via trade, I think they’re right there. The NL Central lacks offense, and the Cubs have the potential to boast one of the best in MLB.

Brad: I agree with that. Another ace-type pitcher would a good rotation the depth it needs to compete in the long haul, and I like the offense as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big seasons from Starlin Castro and especially Anthony Rizzo.

Thom: One of the things that is a little surprising about that offense, at least from a projections standpoint, is that Steamer seems very high on both Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Obviously, a guy like Rizzo is an established quantity at this point, so another 32-HR, 4.7 fWAR season wouldn’t be overly surprising; but Baez, with his 41.5 percent K rate and -0.8 fWAR 2014 cup of tea, is expected to be a 1.4 fWAR guy. Bryant, who hasn’t played at all, is projected to be a 3.0 fWAR rookie.

Brad: Baez being projected at 1.4 fWAR is a little surprising considering his -11.5 Off from last season, but he is still very young and showed plenty of promise in the minor leagues. For me, Bryant’s combined 43 homers in the minors last season were a clear sign that he is ready to do some impressive things at the big league level. The Steamer projection is obviously very optimistic, but the skills are there for him to be considered the ROY favorite.

Thom: Bryant isn’t even projected to play a full season in both Steamer and FG fan projections. 3.0 fWAR in 97 games basically puts him in the upper tier of the position right away and I wouldn’t put that kind of expectation on a 23-year-old, although he has nothing left to prove in the minors. The interesting thing about Baez is that with his all-world bat speed, he’s still not projected as a plus offensive player even with 27 homers. The 1.4 fWAR projection comes mostly from his defense, which is an eye-opener.

Brad: I found that a little bit interesting as well, especially with the -28.7 UZR/150 he had last season. Perhaps they’re banking on his athleticism to compensate for rawness on the defensive front. Recall that Brett Lawrie also faced questions about whether he’d be a defensive liability prior to coming up to the bigs, and now he’s turned into quite the defensive third baseman thanks to his athleticism.

Thom: I think we can say that if the Cubs are going to surprise the NL Central, or win it as Rizzo has claimed they would, those two are going to play very pivotal roles. Really, as you briefly mentioned, I think inexperience is probably this team’s biggest weakness right now. Do you see anywhere else where they could use some work?

Brad: I’m with you on inexperience, but they took steps to alleviate that, and I think that everything else looks pretty good. The Cubs have a solid lineup, a great rotation, and I think that Hector Rondon really solidifies the back end of their ‘pen. There are tweaks to be made, and pieces that can be added, but they’ll at least be competitive. Speaking of young players, I also think that Arismendy Alcantara will be one to watch. FG’s crowdsourced projections have him at 2.3 fWAR.

Thom: Alcantara brings up a good point about the depth this team has as far as young talent goes. One thing that Cubs fans have to be excited about is that while they’ll be good going in 2015. they still have pieces to move for that veteran if they choose to. It might seem blasphemous for many fans, but you know, I would gladly move a Baez for a Hamels or Carlos Gonzalez, and shift Addison Russell into the mix right away. There’s depth to burn in that middle infield right now.

Brad: I would probably make that move for CarGo as well. Seeing as how Fowler is in CF and Baez is at 2B, it will certainly be interesting to see how much playing time Alcantara gets this year. Considering Russell is on the way, would you rather have Baez or Alcantara?

Thom: It’s a no-brainer talent-wise, but considering where this team is at, that’s a tough one. Baez’s bat speed is mesmerizing and he’ll bash homers, but my personal take is that Ks are a hard habit to fix, and he’s been a free swinger more often than not in his career so far. I’ll take Alcantara because I think he’ll provide more actual plus value in 2015, but I’d also do it because Baez’s trade value might have already peaked, and you can get a very good known quantity for him right now.

Brad: Good call — I tend to lean the same way. Baez’s 41.5 percent K rate last season will probably drop as he adjusts, but will it get to a point where he’s a viable plus player on offense? If I can get a sure thing now, I don’t see why I wouldn’t pull the trigger.

Thom: Right. I would love to see him make that adjustment, and he has the talent and time to do so, but the fact is that his floor is a below replacement guy who strikes out 35 percent of the time is a little scary a for a team looking to compete in the next couple of years. Right now, he’s a nice-to-have rather than a necessity. Prospects are currency for this type of situation, and the Cubs are no longer playing for that breakout season a few years down the line — not with a 31-year-old Lester.

Thom: Let’s move on to the “bottom tier” by FG projections starting with the Cincinnati Reds, who are projected to finish last in the NL Central with 76 wins. They aren’t getting a lot of love on paper, and it’s not really hard to see why. Is this team ready to start a full-on rebuild? If so, what happens to guys like Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto?

Brad: I’m not sure if the Reds are ready to go into rebuilding mode yet, but in order to get back to winning, they will need guys like Votto and Jay Bruce to bounce back in a huge way. I liked the Devin Mesoraco extension, and also think that they picked a good time to avoid arbitration with Frazier.

Thom: With the years that are left on Votto’s contract, I don’t exactly blame them for not starting a rebuild ahead of 2015. There’s still plenty of talent on this team, and I mean, you don’t trade for Marlon Byrd if you’re not going to give it a shot.

Brad: Right. Plus, I think Billy Hamilton is going to be a really exciting player, and the rotation is still pretty good with Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey — depending on his health.

Thom: “Depending on his health” might end up being the motto for the 2015 Reds, really. Votto is the big one, but Phillips didn’t play a full season either. Meso dealt with injuries at the beginning of the year and in the summer, then you go down the list to Bailey, Tony Cingrani … One very key guy for me is Cueto, who pitched a prime Justin Verlander-like 243.2 innings — coming off an injury shortened season. There is no doubt in my mind that the Reds aren’t going to be able to keep him in FA.

Brad: He is certainly going to be an interesting player to watch. I am curious to see how well he will perform after last year’s workload. He has had a couple of really nice years, but I wonder what, if anything, his 2011 and 2013 seasons might say about his durability going forward. That said, he has made at least 30 starts in five of his seven seasons. If the Reds fall out of it, he could be a huge trade chip this summer.

Thom: I think this team is facing a similar situation as the Texas Rangers. We talked about how that team could be on the cusp of a fire sale if the early parts of 2015 doesn’t go well, and I just don’t see the Reds being buyers to try to fix things if they’re say, 7-8 games back by the end of June. For the future of the franchise, they can’t just let Cueto walk away for nothing. The trade watch will be on him all year.

Brad: For sure. The Reds need to get more for Cueto than a compensatory draft pick unless they’re in position to make a deep run.

Thom: I’m not particularly high on this team at this point, but with all things being equal going into 2015, I think they have the talent to contend in this tough division on paper — even if more stars will have to align for this team and some others. Who do you think will be the Reds’ biggest difference-maker in 2015?

Brad: With all of the uncertainties regarding this team and players coming back from injuries, etc., I think that Marlon Byrd continuing his late-career resurgence would be huge. I can see him having another 20-25 homer season in that park. Aroldis Chapman is obviously a major stabilizing factory as well.

Thom: If anything, just having an extra steady body is going to be a nice change of pace for the Reds in 2015. I’m going with Cingrani both for now and for the future. He’s got the strikeout potential to be a top-two guy in the rotation, and considering that he was a below-replacement player in 2014, even mini-breakout over Steamer’s 1.4 fWAR projection would give the Reds a few extra wins. In tight division with the extra Wild Card spot, that could be the difference.

Brad: Good pick. He was certainly impressive enough back in 2013 that you can see him stepping up, especially if Cueto gets moved.

Thom: Let’s turn our attention to the Milwaukee Brewers, who are projected by FG to finish just ahead of the Reds at 77 wins. This has been a bit of a confusing offseason from them. They partially answered the first base issue with Adam Lind, who will probably see some sort of platoon with Jonathan Lucroy; but on the other hand, they traded away de facto ace Yovani Gallardo … and now they’re being linked to Francisco Rodriguez? What’s the deal with the Brewers?

Brad: It’s been a perplexing few months, for sure. I speculated that the Gallardo trade may have been to clear the way for a Shields signing, but they’re at least one SP short. That said, the rotation has the potential to be decent — Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Wily Peralta are a good 1-2-3. Lind can’t really hit LHP, but things have been quite rocky for the Brewers at first ever since Prince Fielder left, and the Brewers could do worse. I’m not sure why they would want K-Rod back, though.

Thom: I get the feeling that maybe they did try to get in Shields, but eventually found themselves being out-priced. As for K-Rod, even with plenty of help from the baseball gods, he was still a below-replacement guy per fWAR — just look at that unsightly 1.85 HR/9 rate. At best, I think he’ll be slightly above replacement in 2014 at his age, and I think this is a classic case of a team falling in love with the “established closer” tag. The guy had 44 saves, but he was just not a good reliever in 2014.

Brad: In addition to the HR/9, his HR/FB was 23.3. The guy was getting hit hard, even though it didn’t always hurt his counting numbers. The -0.6 fWAR should be enough to make any team steer clear.

Thom: Speaking of the rotation, it’s interesting that the team has not a single starter projected to put up at least 2.0 fWAR in 2015 … that is, except for Mike Fiers. This is a guy who was best known, perhaps, for hitting Giancarlo Stanton in the face, but he sneakily put up fantastic numbers through 71.2 IP, and actually had considerable success as a starter back in 2012. Could he be the reason why the Brewers decided to move a potentially declining Gallardo?

Brad: He certainly did put up good numbers at 2.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP, and his minor league track record was pretty impressive as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was at least part of the reason why Gallardo became expendable. If Jimmy Nelson can also step up, the two of them could really solidify the back end of this staff. That said, a guy like Garza will also need to carry his weight as well.

Thom: This team’s pitching might be its biggest question mark, and some guys are going to need to beat their projections for the Brewers to contend with the other star-laden rotations in the division. But of course, we can’t really talk about the Brewers contending without going through Ryan Braun, who certainly didn’t provide a lot of reasons for optimism in 2014 coming off the suspension. Baseball is often a cruel game to its brightest stars — do you think he’ll get back to that MVP level of play?

Brad: His 1.2 fWAR was certainly a far cry from when he was in 7.0-plus territory in 2011-12. I am not sure that we are going to the the MVP Braun again, but I think that he still has enough talent to give the Brewers a 3.0-plus fWAR season in 2015.
Speaking of Brewers outfielders, though, I have been very impressed with where Carlos Gomez has taken his game over the past couple of seasons.

Thom: I think Gomez is one of the main reasons why the Brewers can look past a potential Braun decline and still feel optimistic. At 29 years old, I think Gomez is a legit MVP candidate going into 2015 and will beat his 4.4 fWAR projection from Steamer handily.

Brad: It seems fair to suspect that the .339 BABIP may come down. Still, Gomez showed a lot of raw talent early on with the Minnesota Twins, and it seems that it has all finally clicked for him in his late 20s.

Thom: Steamer is probably right about a slight BABIP drop, but consider that his breakout seasons came with highs in LD rate, which I see it as the result of a legit power growth. He’s not going to hit 40/30, but he’s fast enough to turn some grounders into single, some singles into doubles, and he lines the ball well enough to hit above .275. He’ll put up 20 homers and 30 steals, and  with his defense, he’ll be up there with the best OFs. That’s saying a lot, considering how good the NL crop of outfielders are.

Thom: Of course, we can’t really talk about elite outfielders without giving props to the Pirates and their perennial MVP candidate, Andrew McCutchen. This team didn’t make a whole lot of noise in the offseason, but you could make the argument that the Bucs didn’t need to. What do you make of them going into 2015?

Brad: I really think that the Pirates’ outfield has the potential to be the stuff of legends with McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. I think the offense appears to be in great shape, but a bounce-back from Pedro Alvarez will still be key, and they might have to deal with some regression from Josh Harrison and Neil Walker. There are some questions in the rotation, such as what they will get out of Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett, but I think that Gerrit Cole is a legit ace.

Thom: I think Alvarez brings up perhaps the team’s biggest weakness: Depth.

Brad: Right. They did add Corey Hart for bench help, but he is far from a sure thing.

Thom: It’s the same with the outfield, really. There is the potential for these guys to be the best OF group in the division, if not the NL, but … they just moved Travis Snider, who was a great option for a fourth OF. If anything goes wrong, the Bucs will have to rely on question marks like Jose Tabata and utility man Sean Rodriguez do you think they could still add before ST?

Brad: I wouldn’t rule it out. Although they would be trading inside of the division, I could see a guy like Ryan Sweeney being a good fourth OF in Pittsburgh if the Cubs decide to make him available with the depth that they have. The Bucs do have Andrew Lambo as well, but he has hardly played in the big leagues.

Thom: You mentioned regression with Walker; there are injury concerns there, and the Bucs going to arb with him isn’t necessarily going to bode well for a long-term contract. They do have a potential utility man in Jung-ho Kang, who could play in the middle infield and third base. Is he the long-term replacement for Walker? While we’re on the subject. We don’t know a whole lot about Kang except his 40-homer season in Korea. How do you think his skillset will translate to the bigs?

Brad: That is a very real possibility. I still think that they’ll try him at short, but I think that Kang could slide into second base with ease. By the sounds of things, I think that he is going to be a bit of a role player when he gets to the big leagues in 2015, playing a few different positions to see where he sticks. I am not sure he will hit 40 homers, but I certainly do expect him to hit for power.

Thom: For me, Kang’s numbers are nice until you consider that Eric Thames hit 32 homers and 1.090 OPS in the same league. He’s interesting because he’s an unknown at a premium position, as least right now, and I get the feeling that the Bucs will be happy if they can get 20 homers out of him in 2015 with replacement level defense. He’s going to need to be good enough not to be a liability with the glove at any position that he’s plays, because I think his offensive numbers won’t blow anyone away.

Brad: It will be interesting to see what kind of a challenge he will give Jordy Mercer at short as well.

Thom: We saved the Cards for last, but in a sense, there’s not a whole lot to talk about here for 2015 because there hasn’t been an significant overhaul to the core; and more importantly, until a team dethrones them, I consider the Cardinals to be the class of the NL Central. What’s your take?

Brad: I think that the Cards are as good as ever going into the season. There aren’t any glaring weaknesses, really; the starting rotation is great, and they have a good lineup as well. I think the Jason Heyward addition is going to work out great, and I also think that this is the year Matt Adams hits for more power.

Thom: Adams is an interesting case here. Even though his triple-slash might not have looked so different year-to-year, his batting profile does say he was a significantly different hitter in 2014 compared to 2013, when he hit 17 homers in 319 PA. What stands out to you about him in terms of being a potential breakout candidate?

Brad: For me, it’s more of an eye test. His has the size, and was a guy who hit 36 home runs in the minors only a few years ago. It is, however, interesting that his fly ball rate was a career-high 41.2 percent, but his HR/FB was only 8.7 percent. I think that as he matures as a hitter, more of those fly balls will begin to make it out of the park.

Thom: His power is legit, and for me, a career-high LD rate (24.3 percent) is always a good sign that he’s seeing the ball well. His swing rate on balls in the zone in 2014 at 69.3 percent suggest that he’s being more confident as well, and he is making more contact than ever at 80.4 percent. The growth is real, and I think it all leads to a strong potential for him to outperform his .268/.312/.455, 19-homer Steamer projections.

Brad: Imean, even if his impressive 21.8 HR/FB from 2013 was an outlier, more line drives is never really a bad thing.

Thom: More than Adams though, the biggest power breakout candidate on this team for me is probably Heyward. He’s shown prodigal power in his skillset even though the numbers haven’t always backed it up. I think he is in a fantastic spot to break that 30-HR barrier for the first time in his career, and could put up an MVP-worthy performance.

Brad: I certainly expect him to hit for the type of power he did back in 2012. Part of his “power outage” can be explained by being moved up to the leadoff spot and seemingly changing his approach to hit for contact rather than power, which the advanced numbers reflect.

Thom: For teams that are as strong as the Cardinals, the biggest question that we’ve been putting forth is “what can go wrong?” So, what is the Redbirds’ Achilles’ heel?

Brad: Obviously, health is going to be important. I think that the team felt it when Yadier Molina was out last year. I know that the Cards were talking about adding another SP but I think their rotation is in fine shape as long as Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn are all healthy and ready to go. John Lackey had a pretty nice 2014 as well.

Thom: One interesting thing about the rotation is that while the names are all there, Wainwright is actually projected rather conservatively by Steamer, who thinks the ace will only pitch 173 innings in a 2.4 fWAR season. On the other hand, Lackey is projected to be a 2.5 fWAR pitcher over 182 IP. Obviously health is a concern with Wainwright, Even so, that projection is probably a bit off. I see Wainwright as a 4.0 fWAR guy in 2014 at 200 IP, even though he might not put together a Cy-worthy season again.

Brad: I certainly see Wainwright beating the 2.4 fWAR projection if he stays healthy. I think that the 2.5 fWAR for Lackey will turn out to be pretty accurate though. It will also be interesting to see if they can finally get a full season out of Jaime Garcia.

Thom: So, you think Garcia will get the nod over Carlos Martinez?

Brad: If I had to choose, I think I would give the nod to Martinez right now, but I think that Garcia is certainly an interesting wildcard considering what he was able to do earlier on in his career.

Thom: If there is one weakness on this team, I think it’s the potential for the rotation to see multiple injuries and fall apart, which is why I can see them going after another starter like Hamels. All things being equal though, they’re in great shape going into 2015 like you said, and I think the offense is good enough that they can take a hit on the pitching and buy as needed.

Thom: Let’s finish up with the fictional divisional awards. Your 2015 NL Central MVP is …

Brad: Andrew McCutchen. The 2013 NL MVP is right up there with Mike Trout as one of the game’s best all-around players.

Thom: It’s hard to argue with that one, and he would be my pick as well. Your 2015 NL Central Cy Young is …

Brad: Johnny Cueto — I know he had a big workload and threw a lot of innings last season, but I think that he is going to have another big season in his contract year. Assuming the Reds don’t trade him next summer, he is my NL Central MVP. I’ll go with Jon Lester as my runner-up.

Thom: I’ll switch things up here and go with Lester as the Cy Young front-runner for the division. He’s shown the talent before, and the move to the NL will help him significantly. The Cubs care about his postseason record as much as his regular-season performance, but he should be right up there even if they don’t make the playoffs. Your NL Central Comeback Player of the Year is …

Brad: I have to give it to Pedro Alvarez. I think that the move to 1B will do wonders for him. I also thought about giving it to Jaime Garcia; even if he is finally healthy, I am not sure what he role will be with Martinez in the mix … still, he was too good back in 2010-11 to just fade away. Plus, he is only 28.

Thom: My guy here is Joey Votto. The power might not be there anymore because he’s changed his approach, but health is the only obstacle for him to put together another 4-5 fWAR season. He’s still the best 1B in the division for me, at least until Rizzo repeats his performance. Your 2015 NL Central Breakout Player of the Year is …

Brad:  I am going to be unconventional here and give it to Brennan Boesch. I also considered him for Comeback Player of the Year, but there isn’t much for him to “come back” to, except for maybe his 2011 campaign. The Reds brought him in on a minor league contract after he absolutely tore it up in the PCL last year. If Bruce continues to struggle, I think that they will find at-bats for him. I know Boesch has struggled mightily at times, but as far as raw talent goes, I think that he can hit a ball as far as anyone.

Thom: Tony Cingrani is my guy here. Love the repertoire and the strikeout ability — health is the biggest thing holding him back. Your 2015 NL Central Bust of the Year is …

Brad: Miguel Montero. I still think that he is a good catcher and will have a semi-productive bat, but I don’t quite see him hitting like he did in 2011-12.

Thom: It’s A.J. Burnett for me. I know he’s got a track record of success with the Bucs, but his skillset saw a significant decline in 2014 in terms of control, and his average fastball velocity dropped below 92 mph for the first time in his career. He’s aged much better than expected, but it may catch up on him in 2015. Finally, your projections on how the division will play out …

Brad: STL, PIT, CHC, MIL, CIN

If you made it through this whole discussion with us, I think one thing will have become apparent is that this division has perhaps more talking points than any other in the league simply because it is projected to be very tight. The Cards, Bucs and Cubs might be in a “tier” on their own and somewhat interchangeable on paper, but really, the Brewers and Reds aren’t too far off either and might be one impact player away from joining the mix.

The most exciting part? These teams still have the means with which to improve, meaning that there could be more shuffling in your expectations yet.

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