Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
On June 10 of last season, Gregory Polanco made his highly-anticipated MLB debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Following his promotion, Polanco was quite solid over his first month in the big leagues, but it would suffice to say that the young right fielder stumbled to the finish line.
Playing in a total of 89 games with the Pirates, Polanco slashed only .235/.307/.343 with seven homers, a .293 wOBA and a 87 wRC+ in a 0.2 fWAR campaign. Considering the fact that he put up a .328/.390/.504 triple-slash with a .397 wOBA and a 146 wRC+ for the Pirates’ Triple-A club in 2014, Polanco’s production at the big league level was quite disappointing to say the very least.
Part of his struggles can likely be explained by the immediate jump in the level of pitching he faced. Although Polanco’s 18.9 percent K rate was not particularly bad and was actually below the league average of 20.4, it was up from the 16.1 mark he posted in Triple-A, so he was in fact striking out a bit more frequently while facing higher-caliber arms. This alone is not really a knock against him, and he still appeared to have a decent eye, posting a 9.6 percent walk rate, which was quite similar to the 9.2 mark he posted in Triple-A.
The fact that he was still able to draw his walks is quite interesting to note, especially when considering his low OBP and wOBA.
When it comes to the high batting average that Polanco posted on the farm last season, some of his success was aided by a .377 BABIP. He wasn’t quite as fortunate on balls in play during his time in the majors, posting a mark of only .272. Furthermore, although his .175 ISO at Triple-A indicated promising power potential, he didn’t show much extra-base pop in Pittsburgh, posting an ISO of only .108.
The 6-foot-4, 220-pound lefty also struggled mightily against big league southpaws, putting up a batting line of .171/.222/.244 with an .073 ISO, .212 wOBA and a 32 wRC+. He didn’t seem to have much trouble hitting lefties in Triple-A, however, putting up a batting line of .329/.400/.408 over a small sample size of 76 at-bats, which at least suggests that he may be capable of making an adjustment going forward.
As a player who once stole 40 bases in the minors, one element of Polanco’s game that did not disappoint was his speed. He ultimately finished the season with 14 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a 3.6 BsR and a 3.0 UBR. When it comes to Polanco’s defense, he showed a strong arm from the outfield, which was given a rating of 83 by Fangraphs Fans scouting report. However, his -6.7 UZR/150, -3 DRS and -6.4 Def rating did leave plenty of room for improvement.
Heading into the 2015 season, the Pirates do not have much of a safety net for Polanco in right field, especially when considering the fact that they have now dealt Travis Snider to the Baltimore Orioles. They do have Andrew Lambo, who slugged a combined 32 home runs across two levels in the minor leagues back in 2013, but he has accumulated a mere 69 at-bats in the big leagues.
The Pirates also have former Milwaukee Brewers All-Star Corey Hart and Jose Tabata in the mix, but there is some uncertainty surrounding those two heading into the upcoming season as well.
By the look of things, it appears that Polanco will be given every opportunity to live up to his potential in his age-23 season. If he can manage to show some of the promise that he displayed throughout his minor league career, Pittsburgh’s outfield is going to look very special as they already have two very talented players out there.
In center field, the Pirates have 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen. In 2014, McCutchen posted a 6.8 fWAR, marking four straight years he has accrued a mark of at least 5.4. According to advanced metrics, his defense was not as sharp as it was in his MVP season, as his UZR/150 and Def rating fell from 8.4 and 9.3 to -13.7 and -8.6 respectively. However, he was once again a tremendous offensive force, slashing .314/.410/.542 with 25 home runs, a .412 wOBA and a 168 wRC+.
McCutchen continued to be a presence on the basepaths as well, stealing 18 bases in 21 tries while posting a 1.5 BsR. Perhaps it wasn’t the best overall season he’s put up, but the Pirates should expect an MVP-caliber performance in 2015.
Moving over to the other corner spot, the Bucs have Starling Marte. In 2014, the left fielder slashed an impressive .291/.356/.453 with 13 homers, a .358 wOBA and a 132 wRC+. He crossed the 4.0 fWAR barrier for the second consecutive year, posting a mark of 4.1.
Marte once again gave the Pirates a great deal of value with his legs, swiping 30 bases while posting a 5.8 BsR and a 4.5 UBR, even though all of those numbers were actually down from 2013. Although his defensive numbers may have also been down a bit and he only had an overall Def mark of -4.5, he still played an adequate left field, posting a 2.9 UZR/150 with 10 DRS.
Overall, the Pirates’ outfield accumulated 16.7 fWAR in 2014, which led the NL and ranked second in all of baseball behind only the Orioles, who posted a mark of 20.2. Pittsburgh’s outfield ranked near the top in all of baseball in a number of offensive categories including Off (98.9 — first), batting average (.287 — first), on-base percentage (.352 — first), wOBA (.353 — second) and wRC+ (128 — second).
As far as defense goes, however, they were quite a ways behind the Kansas City Royals‘ outfield and their 17.9 UZR/150, posting a collective mark of -6.3 in that department. However, Marte has certainly played good defense over the past two seasons, McCutchen posted stellar marks in the field as recently as 2013, and Polanco is getting ready to play in his first full season in the majors, so the Bucs certainly have the youth and athleticism to be a better defensive unit in 2015.
Going into 2015, the issue of whether or not the Pirates have the best outfield in the game may very well hinge on how Polanco’s fares. Obviously, two-thirds of the Bucs’ outfield is certainly in good hands, but McCutchen and Marte alone may not give Pittsburgh the best outfield in the game, even when considering everything they have already accomplished.
After all, there are other outfields out there that are pretty good as well.
Some are quite intrigued by the San Diego Padres‘ new-look outfield that consists of Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp, but it remains to be seen if potentially shaky defense will be their downfall. At least from an offensive standpoint, the Arizona Diamondbacks may be a deep sleeper in this department with players such as Mark Trumbo, A.J. Pollock, and some combination of David Peralta, Ender Inciarte, Cody Ross and potentially Yasmany Tomas roaming left at Chase Field.
Moving over to the AL, the Boston Red Sox certainly have an outfield that is jam-packed with talent, even if they may have more than a few question marks. The Orioles and Royals have each lost players and may have taken a slight step back from where they were at in 2014, but they could both find their way back into the conversation as well.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The team that may very well give the Pirates the biggest challenge for the best outfield in baseball, however, might be the Miami Marlins, who figure to make at least some noise out of the NL East this coming season.
The Marlins have a trio of talented youngsters in Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and $325 million man Giancarlo Stanton. Considering the fact that all three have each already proven themselves at the big league level, they may have a leg up on the Pirates as it stands right now. Obviously, Yelich and Ozuna don’t have the longest track records, but the Fish still have three players who are coming off of stellar 2014 seasons in all three outfield spots. The Pirates only have two.
Everything could change, however, once Polanco has his breakout season. It could very well happen in 2015, but there is a chance that the Bucs may have to wait longer.
For what it is worth, Steamer isn’t projecting much improvement for Polanco in 2015, penciling him in at a .250/.306/.383 triple-slash with 13 homers, a .306 wOBA and a 96 wRC+ in a 0.8 fWAR campaign. Although McCutchen and Marte are projected to be worth 6.1 and 3.3 fWAR respectively, they would still most likely need to get more out of Polanco in order to be considered the best in the business.
That said, fans should rest assured that there is still plenty of time for this potentially legendary outfield to come to fruition. Given Polanco’s impressive pedigree, he is bound to do great things sooner or later.
Plus, Polanco is under team control through 2020, and Marte is signed through 2019 with team options for 2020 and 2021. McCutchen is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018, and there has been recent talk of the Pirates being open to signing him to a big extension. This is a unit that will likely be sticking together for at least a few more years.
It is not inconceivable to imagine the Pirates’ outfield reaching the 20.0 fWAR barrier, which would certainly put them in elite company. It is something that has only been done 23 times since 1901, the most recent team to do it being the Orioles just last year. Last season, the O’s entire outfield posted a 20.2 fWAR without having a single player break the 6.0 mark, which is something that McCutchen has done with ease over his past three campaigns.
While the Pirates’ trio may certainly have the talent to achieve this feat, they will still likely need a fourth outfielder who can chip in with above-replacement level performance. That is, of course, unless Marte, McCutchen and Polanco can each average roughly 6.7 fWAR a piece.
At any rate, if it doesn’t happen in 2015, expect the Pirates to have the best outfield in the game before too long. Don’t be shocked if it turns out to be one for the history books.
*All statistical information courtesy of Baseball Reference, ESPN.com, Fangraphs and MiLB.com
Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.
