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After a drought that lasted for more than two decades, the Pittsburgh Pirates have now had a taste of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, making it into October as a Wild Card team in both years. Heading into 2015, the Pirates may have a strong chance to win their first division title since 1992.
Before the Pirates can embark on a new season and become NL Central champions, however, they do need to sort out a few things in Spring Training. One of the biggest questions the Bucs will need to answer is the issue of who will be their No. 5 starter.
As it stands today, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett appear set to make up three-fifths of the Pirates’ starting rotation. Although Charlie Morton is coming off of hip surgery, reports regarding his status for Opening Day appear to be quite optimistic, meaning that 80 percent of the Bucs’ rotation may already be spoken for.
When it comes to the final spot, the top two candidates competing for the job are Vance Worley and Jeff Locke. Although Brandon Cumpton may have been able to earn a certain amount of consideration with a strong spring, it was reported over the past week that he has been bothered by discomfort in his elbow. He is now expected to meet with Dr. James Andrews, making his chances to crack the starting staff even more slim.
Barring something unusual happening, the Bucs’ No. 5 spot seems to be down to a two-man race. In all honesty, they couldn’t really go wrong with either Worley or Locke. While both pitchers have experienced their share of ups and downs, they are each only 27 years old and carry considerable upside.
When it comes to Worley, the former third-round draft pick had immediate success when he came up with the Philadelphia Phillies, going 18-13 with a 3.50 ERA (3.57 FIP) and a 1.35 WHIP while racking up 4.3 fWAR between 2010-12. But after being traded to the Minnesota Twins, Worley had an abysmal 2013, going 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA (5.53 FIP) and a 1.99 WHIP in a -0.2 fWAR campaign.
Acquired by the Pirates the following spring, Worley began the season in Triple-A Indianapolis and did not make his first start until June 15. Upon joining the team, he ultimately became a steady force in the Bucs’ rotation down the stretch, going 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA (3.44 FIP) and a 1.21 WHIP in a 1.4 fWAR campaign.
According to Brooks Baseball, Worley’s four-seam fastball was only coming in at an average of 90.45 mph, so he was hardly featuring overpowering stuff. It is interesting to note, however, that the pitch was given a PITCHf/x value of 4.6 runs above average by Fangraphs. Although Worley’s four-seamer was given an impressive PITCHf/x value of 7.3 back in 2011, which was a year in which he posted a career-best 2.3 fWAR, it had fallen to -3.1 and -7.8 in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Worley had a 6.42 K/9 in 2014, which wasn’t exactly jaw-dropping, but it was certainly solid enough to get the job done. When he was going strong for the Phillies back in 2011, he posted a 8.13 K/9, so perhaps he may be turning into a slightly different type of pitcher.
Rather than racking up the strikeouts, Worley posted a career-high 49.4 percent ground-ball rate in 2014. As the following chart shows, Worley was able to generate a significant number of ground balls per BIP with the four-seamer, especially as the season progressed. Obviously, his sinker and slider generated quite a few grounders as well.
Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Perhaps most interestingly, Worley had much better control in 2014, posting a career-best 1.79 BB/9. His 62.7 percent first-pitch strike percentage was a career-high as well, so he was clearly better at finding the zone. It seems reasonable to expect a certain amount of regression, but more success could easily be in store for him, especially with his improved command.
For what it is worth, Fangraphs Steamer is projecting Worley to regress to a 7-7 record with a 3.98 ERA (3.81 FIP) and a 1.28 WHIP through 113 innings in a 0.9 fWAR campaign. While those numbers would hardly make him an NL Cy Young candidate, that would still be a decent season from a No. 5 starter.
Thus far in Spring Training, Worley is off to a bit of a rough start, posting a 9.00 ERA through 2.0 innings of work, but that should obviously be taken with a grain of salt.
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Locke is a pitcher who has shown shades of promise as well, albeit taking a slightly different path.
Much like Worley, Locke is not necessarily a power pitcher. Brooks Baseball tagged his average four-seam fastball at a velocity of 90.93 mph last season, and keeping the ball on the ground has been a big part of his recipe for success too.
The 27-year-old southpaw had his best season back in 2013. Locke was particularly dominant in the first half of that year, going 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA (3.80 FIP) and a 1.13 WHIP, earning a place on the NL All-Star team. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off in the second half, and he was optioned to Double-A Altoona in late August.
Overall, Locke went 10-7 with a 3.52 ERA (4.03 FIP) in a 1.0 fWAR campaign in 2013. Yes, he led the NL with 84 walks and his 1.38 WHIP and 4.55 BB/9 were certainly higher than one would like, but his final numbers will still show that he was a fairly dependable arm over 166.1 innings. He also had a stellar 53.2 percent ground ball rate.
In 2014, Locke divided his time between Class-A Advanced Bradenton, Triple-A and the big league club. During his time with the Pirates, he went a respectable 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA (4.37 FIP) and a 1.27 WHIP in a 0.1 fWAR campaign. While the numbers were not earth-shattering, he showed better control, posting a much improved 2.74 BB/9.
He also induced ground balls at a clip of over 50 percent once again. As seen in the chart below, his curveball was consistently one of his better ground-ball coaxing weapons in 2014.
Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
For the 2015 season, Steamer has Locke at a 9-10 record with a 4.09 ERA (3.96 FIP) and a 1.37 WHIP through 160 innings a 0.9 fWAR campaign. Although Locke’s projection looks quite similar to Worley’s, it is somewhat interesting to note that Locke is projected to throw 47 more innings.
Although the sample size is incredibly small, Locke had a great spring debut, throwing two scoreless innings against the New York Yankees, allowing only one hit and recording a pair of strikeouts. He is certainly off to a good start, and he will likely need to string together quite a few more solid outings in order to win the job.
One of the biggest factors to point out in the competition between Worley and Locke is that they are both out of options. Therefore, they would need to clear the waiver process before being sent to the minors, leaving manager Clint Hurdle with a bit of a predicament.
One option that some have discussed is the possibility of trading Worley or Locke, possibly in an effort to shore up other areas of their club. That being said, Pittsburgh doesn’t have too many holes on its roster other than the possible exception of a thin bench. Of course, everyone is excited to see how Jung-ho Kang will fare in a utility role after hitting 40 home runs last season in Korea, but many have raised concerns about their depth in the outfield following the trade of Travis Snider.
While the Pirates could possibly have one of the best outfields in all of MLB, they do not have much of a backup plan in the event right fielder Gregory Polanco continues to struggle. They do have Corey Hart and Andrew Lambo, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty.
While the Pirates could look to add a quality fourth outfielder via trade, finding a way to retain the depth that they currently have in the starting rotation certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea either.
On that note, another possibility that has been suggested is to relegate the loser of the contest to relief duty, which some believe to be the most likely scenario.
Since the Pirates became contenders again in 2013, a big part of their success over the past two seasons has been their stellar relief pitching, and they are expected to have a strong relief corps once again in 2015. Obviously, there are a few players who are already pretty safe bets to be part of the Pirates’ bullpen such as Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Jared Hughes, Antonio Bastardo and likely John Holdzkom, but there is expected to be some competition for the final spot or two.
Players who will be part of that mix might include, but are not limited to, guys such as Stolmy Pimentel, Bobby LaFromboise and Radhames Liz. The advantage that Worley or Locke would give the team, however, is the ability to make spot starts, or immediately step into a full-time starting role if the need arises.
They may not be strikeout artists per se, but Worley and Locke can induce ground balls and certainly have the stuff to get MLB-caliber hitters out. Plus, having a swingman in the bullpen would be a nice insurance policy for the Pirates to have as well.
After all, while Cole appears to be growing into a legitimate ace and the rest of the staff is very good on paper, there are more than a few things that could go wrong. Liriano wasn’t quite as sharp last season as he was when he posted a 3.1 fWAR in 2013, Morton has never been worth more than 1.6 fWAR, and the issue of what to expect from Burnett may be one of the biggest question marks.
After having two great seasons with the Pirates from 2012-13, Burnett was roughed up with the Phillies last season, going 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA (4.14 FIP) and a 1.41 WHIP in a 1.0 fWAR campaign. Now in Pittsburgh once again, the 38-year-old has already hinted that this will be his last season in professional baseball. Clearly, it would make sense to have a back-up plan in place in the event that Burnett doesn’t work out.
Another factor to keep in mind is the Cumpton situation. If it turns out that the Bucs are going to be without his services for a while, they would further be depleting their pitching depth by dealing Worley or Locke.
So, if this is indeed the direction the team chooses to go, who will be the one that ultimately heads to the pen?
Well, by all accounts, Worley appears to be in the driver’s seat to make the rotation. While Locke could certainly make this interesting if he continues to pitch well this spring, the simple fact is that Worley had a great season for the Bucs in 2014. Ignoring the season he spent in Minnesota, Worley also has a longer track record of success.
If it is in fact Locke who ends up in the bullpen, one might worry about his history of control issues, so it will be important for him to continue displaying the same type of improved command that he did a season ago.
At any rate, while dangling Worley or Locke out as trade bait wouldn’t be a nonsensical move, finding a way to keep both of them on the 25-man roster would likely be the better idea. It would also make sense to keep both pitchers in Pittsburgh as the team looks beyond 2015 as well.
*All statistical information courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, ESPN.com, Fangraphs and MLB.com
Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.
