In 2014, the Texas Rangers were expected to be a force to be reckoned with. After all, they were coming off of five consecutive winning seasons and made a flurry of offseason splashes such as trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo. Unfortunately for the Rangers, however, they were bitten hard by the injury bug and finished the year with a record of 67-95, which ranked dead last in the AL.

Considering the fact that they share a division with the resurgent Los Angeles Angels, the suddenly-formidable Seattle Mariners and the everpresent Oakland Athletics, the Rangers were already expected to have their work cut out for them heading into the 2015 season. While there may have still been a glimmer of hope, Texas was dealt a devastating blow in recent days as it was reported that three-time All-Star Yu Darvish will likely require Tommy John surgery.

It might seem obvious given that expectations weren’t high to begin with, but Darvish being out for the season would dash any dreams that the Rangers had of contending in 2015, even if everything else works out.

Since coming over from Japan in 2012, Darvish has gone 39-25 with a 3.27 ERA (3.17 FIP) and a 1.20 WHIP over 83 starts. His 13.9 fWAR over that time span ranks eighth among all qualified starting pitchers in MLB, and his 11.22 K/9 ranks first, placing him one spot ahead of $210 million man Max Scherzer. To put it simply, the 28-year-old right-hander is going to be tough to replace, if not impossible.

With Darvish on the sidelines, Derek Holland would likely be one of the front-runners to become the team’s new ace — if he is healthy. Holland has reportedly been dealing with a sore throwing shoulder, but his outlook certainly looks more promising than Darvish’s at this particular point in time.

Back in 2013, Holland was very impressive, going 10-9 with a 3.42 ERA (3.44 FIP), a 1.29 WHIP and a 7.99 K/9 in a Darvish-like 4.8 fWAR campaign. Despite being limited to only 37 innings in 2014, he continued to impress, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.46 ERA (2.19 FIP), a 1.05 WHIP and a 6.08 K/9. Even though he only appeared in six games (five starts), Holland managed to post a 1.3 fWAR.

For what it is worth, Steamer has Holland at a rather modest 12-11 record with a 4.09 ERA (4.02 FIP), and a 1.29 WHIP in a 2.5 fWAR campaign for the 2015 season. In a perfect-world scenario, if he stays injury free, Holland could most likely outperform that projection and help pick up a considerable amount of the slack that the loss of Darvish would create.

However, even if he has a career year, it still most likely wouldn’t be enough to keep the Rangers in the race as there would be too many question marks behind him.

After Holland, the Rangers next-best pitcher is the newly-acquired Yovani Gallardo. Between 2009-12, Gallardo was doing great work for the Milwaukee Brewers, accumulating a record of 60-38 with a 3.68 ERA (3.64 FIP), 1.30 WHIP and a 12.5 fWAR. He was an All-Star in 2010 and twice crossed the 200 inning plateau during the 2011 and 2012 campaigns. He also finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in 2011.

However, Gallardo has only been worth 1.8 and 1.7 fWAR over the past two seasons respectively. He can still make a difference, but it certainly seems that he has taken a step back from where he was just a few short years ago.

Of course, at only 29 years of age, it is still quite possible that Gallardo could return to being a 3.0-4.0 fWAR pitcher, but it is not a guarantee either. Steamer has him at a 10-12 record with a 4.61 ERA (4.26 FIP) and 1.38 WHIP in another 1.7 fWAR campaign for this season.

Given the fact that Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is not exactly known for being a pitcher-friendly park and Gallardo has posted an HR/FB of 11.9 percent or higher in each of the past four seasons, he can certainly be expected to surrender a few long balls as well.

Next up is Colby Lewis, who now appears likely to be the No. 3 starter. Although Lewis had an impressive 4.9 fWAR campaign all the way back in 2010, he dipped down to a 10-14 record with a 5.18 ERA (4.46 FIP) and a 1.52 WHIP in a 1.6 fWAR campaign last season. Steamer is projecting him to be worth only 1.0 fWAR in 2015, and it is tough to see the 35-year-old being much of a difference-maker at this point in his career.

When it comes to the rest of the Rangers’ starting rotation, there will be a wide range of candidates competing for the final two spots, and none of them are exactly sure things.

One of the top candidates to earn a job is the the newly-acquired Ross Detwiler, who has experience pitching in relief as well as in the starting rotation. His best season came back in 2012 when he went 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA (4.04 FIP) and a 1.22 WHIP over 33 games (27 starts) with the Washington Nationals. He also posted a career-best 1.7 fWAR that season.

Last season, however, Detwiler was a below-replacement level performer for the Nationals, posting a -0.2 fWAR while working exclusively out of the bullpen, making his prospects for 2015 look quite uncertain.

Other players fighting for a spot in the Rangers’ rotation include Nick Tepesch, Nick Martinez, Lisalverto Bonilla, Anthony Ranaudo and Alex “Chi Chi” Gonzalez. It is certainly a talented crop, albeit a largely unproven one at the major league level. While one of them could certainly step up and put together a surprise season, the Rangers’ chances still appear quite gloomy without Darvish.

A critical factor to point out is that even though Darvish had a 4.1 fWAR, the Rangers’ starting staff ranked last in the AL and 22nd in all of baseball in that department last year, posting a collective mark of 8.8.Without Darvish in the mix, it would hardly be shocking to see the Rangers’ rotation at or near the cellar in wins above replacement once again in 2015, even if they get full seasons from Holland and Gallardo.

One final X-factor to point out is that Matt Harrison and Martin Perez are still recovering from injures which sidelined them for most of the 2014 season, and while either one could certainly make a difference if they could make it back, it appears that they are both still a ways off.

While the Rangers could have a powerful offense, it is very hard to see them finding a way to compensate for the loss of Darvish with their current group of starting pitchers. Plus, there are more than a few quality starting pitchers in the AL West who the Rangers may have trouble matching up against. For instance, it is worth noting that Mariners ace Felix Hernandez was worth 6.2 fWAR alone in 2014.

So, does GM Jon Daniels decide that 2015 is a lost season, or does he make a move in an effort to keep the team’s already-distant hopes afloat?

Well, there have certainly been a few high-profile pitchers who have been rumored to be on the trading block over the past few months. There was talk of the Nationals perhaps being open to moving a starting pitcher after the earth-shaking signing of Scherzer, and the Philadelphia Phillies have a pair of front-of-the-rotation arms in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who they appear more than willing to move.

Lee, who spent part of the 2010 season with the Rangers after being acquired before the non-waiver trade deadline, might have been an interesting fit, but it was recently announced that he has a torn flexor tendon in his throwing elbow. Although he will reportedly attempt to work through the injury, teams will not exactly be lining up to trade for the 36-year-old’s services anymore.

Trading for Hamels, a perennial 3.0-plus fWAR pitcher and former World Series MVP, might make sense, but he would be quite costly. The Rangers would obviously need to decide whether or not he would be worth it. After all, even with Hamels on board, there is still no guarantee that they would be able to climb the arduous mountain that is the AL West.

Instead of making a risky effort in an attempt to patch this colossal hole, perhaps the Rangers would be better off considering the alternative: building for the future.

While players such as Fielder and Choo may essentially be unmovable, now may be a good time to see how much interest other teams may have in someone such as Adrian Beltre. Sure, the Rangers just picked up his option for 2016, but the package of talent that they could receive in exchange for the veteran third baseman would be something worth keeping in mind. Ridding themselves of Elvis Andrus‘ contract may turn out to be a decent idea after all as well.

Texas had a great run from 2010-13, which included a pair of World Series appearances, but the injury to Darvish may have just officially shut that particular window in Rangers history. Although it may still be worth seeing how things play out in the first half of the season, it would be wise for the Rangers to already start looking beyond 2015.

*All statistical information courtesy of Baseball Reference, ESPN.com and Fangraphs

Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google. 

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