Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night at Nationals Park. Both teams come into the series on a bit of a hot streak, as the Nationals have won four out of five and the Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games, including five in a row. The Cardinals have had the Nationals’ number in recent years, as illustrated by their 14-6 record against the team from Washington since the beginning of the 2012 season. The glaring difference between the two teams in the past few years has been the Cardinals’ ability to produce with runners in scoring position.
The Cardinals’ lineup is the best in baseball at shortening their swings with runners in scoring position. The Nationals, on the other hand, are one of the worst teams in baseball with runners on base because of their unwillingness to change their approach at the plate. It’s hard to believe that the Nationals players can’t look at the fact the Cardinals have been in the National League Championship Series four years in a row and realize that is one of the biggest reasons why.
In Game 1, the pitching matchup is Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez against Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn. The key for Gonzalez will be to throw strikes, as the Cardinals’ lineup is extremely patient and will take walks. If he can locate his fastball and throw his curveball for strikes, then he could have success against the Cardinals. If Gonzalez falls behind in counts, struggles to locate and walks four or five hitters, then it will be a long night for the Nationals.
The Nationals’ lineup will have their hands full with Lynn. He is coming off of a career year where he finished with a 15-10 record and a 2.74 ERA. In his first two starts this season, Lynn has a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings and carries a 13-2 strikeout-walk-ratio. He will throw a lot of strikes, and the Nationals may be better off trying to be aggressive early in the count if they see a fastball instead of getting behind in the count, where Lynn has a nasty curveball as his out-pitch.
Game 2 pits Nationals right-hander Doug Fister up against Cardinals righty John Lackey. This could not be a more even pitching matchup. Fister and Lackey have the same type of repertoire. Both pitchers use sinkers the majority of the time and almost never throw a straight four-seam fastball. They will throw any of their pitches in any count, move location up, down, in and out and are not strikeout pitchers, instead trying to create weak contact and get quick outs. The only noticeable difference between the two pitchers is their work rate. Fister wants to get the ball and throw it. Lackey is a little more methodical and works at a slower pace.
Game 3 has the marquee pitching matchup of the series, as the Nationals will have early Cy Young front-runner Max Scherzer on the hill against the Cardinals’ young stud Michael Wacha. This game should be the best of the series and will almost assuredly be a pitchers’ duel. Scherzer possesses a 0.83 ERA in three starts this season, and he has the ability to stymie any lineup. The Cardinals will be his biggest test so far of this young season, and it will be interesting to see how he matches up against one of the best teams in the National League. If the Nationals believe that they have the ability to represent the National League in the World Series this season, then winning this series will go a long way towards gaining the confidence that they need for the rest of the season.
Wacha is coming off of an injury-plagued season, but when healthy, he has the potential to shut down any lineup. He is not going to allow many runs, so it will be key for the Nationals to capitalize with guys on base. The team can’t afford to leave eight or 10 runners in scoring position like they’ve done in almost every game to this point in the season. The Nationals must play a little small-ball in order to beat a pitcher like Wacha.
In the end, I believe the Cardinals will win the first game of the series 5-3, but the Nationals will come back to take the second and third by scores of 4-3 and 2-1, respectively, to win the series two games to one.
