Detroit Tigers' Nick Castellanos May Be Primed For A Breakout Season In 2016

+Read full article
CastyvsRoyals
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Ever since being drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the first round back in 2010, fans have been expecting big things from Nick Castellanos. After two full MLB seasons, those big things haven’t exactly happened yet, but he has certainly shown flashes of promise.

Castellanos had a pretty solid rookie season at the plate in 2014, hitting .259/.306/.394 with 11 homers, 66 RBIs and an AL-best 28.5 percent line drive rate. However, he struggled in the field, posting a -19.1 UZR/150 with -30 defensive runs saved at the hot corner. He graded out as a below replacement-level player, posting a -0.5 fWAR and a -1.4 bWAR, but was still able to finish eighth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

This season, Castellanos got off of to a bit of a rough start, and by the time June rolled around, many thought that it might be time to send him to the minors. However, the Tigers stuck with him, and their decision ultimately payed off.

After a strong second half in which he slashed .269/.322/.478 with nine homers and 35 RBIs, Castellanos ended his season with an overall slash line of .255/.303/.419 with 15 home runs and 73 RBIs. In the home run and RBI departments, he ranked ninth and seventh (tied with Evan Longoria) respectively among all qualified third basemen in the AL. Castellanos still had a negative fWAR (-0.1), but had a positive bWAR (0.5).

Although his line drive rate fell to 23.3 percent, he began getting a little bit more air underneath the ball this year, which might signal that he is getting ready to transition into more of a power hitter. His fly ball rate rose from 36.5 percent last year to 40.4 percent this year, and his HR/FB went from 7.5 percent to 9.2 percent. Furthermore, his ISO jumped from .135 to 164.

The other element of Castellanos game that stuck out this season was his defense. Although his glove work was hardly great, he was better than he was last year, posting a -11.2 UZR/150 with -9 DRS. He may never be a Gold Glove-caliber defender, but he does appear to be creeping closer towards becoming a league average third baseman.

Lastly, it is sometimes easy to forget that Castellanos will not even turn 24 years old until next March. Based on the strides he made this past season, he may indeed be ready to put together a breakout season at the plate in 2016. One shouldn’t exactly expect MVP-type numbers, but in a perfect-world scenario, he should be able to get to 20 homers and 80 RBIs while playing adequate defense.

Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google

Share On FacebookShare StumbleUpon