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Wait. What? The Houston Astros should trade for Joey Votto? Okay, someone has clearly lost their mind.
Except I haven’t. The Astros’ success last year was no joke, and I expect them to contend once again for a playoff spot. They really need a quality left-handed bat in the middle of their lineup, and Votto hits every single one of their offensive needs while playing quality defense at first base. Plus, who better than the perennial All-Star?
The rumors were flying all winter that the Astros were really interested in Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves. The Braves could likely hold him for another few years due to his age, and they are much further along in the rebuilding process. It’s not out of the question for the Braves to compete by 2018-2019 with Freeman still being in his prime.
Votto, on the other hand, is on the wrong side of 30. The Reds have to pay him massive money, and they’re clearly trying to rebuild. The Astros not only have the farm depth, but the need for an offensive anchor. So again, while this trade scenario might seem unlikely, I’d be stunned if the Astros wouldn’t even consider it.
The offer I’d make?
1B Jonathan Singleton
SS Alex Bregman
RHP Francis Martes
RHP Riley Farrell
1B A.J. Reed
Meanwhile, the Reds would pick up 65 percent of the money owed to Votto, which would be roughly $125 million over the life of his contract. The Astros could always sweeten the deal to the Reds financially, but upping the prospect package in exchange for cash makes the most sense here. It’s a perfect situation for both parties to get something significant for one of the best hitters in baseball.
The prospects-cash balance is obviously the trickiest part in the scenario because Votto’s extension was insane. Obviously you can play with numbers here, but the Astros’ payroll is going to be quite reasonable, and adding $10-14 million for Votto is going to be arguably a steal — even if he declines from being a 7.6 WAR player to say, 6.5 WAR. (As it stands, it’s roughly $7 million per win in terms of money to value)
Look, the Astros’ window is about as open as the Chicago Cubs‘. They’re primed with young talent all over the board. Adding Votto to a lineup that already has George Springer, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Correa? Hello. Why wouldn’t they want this?
Most Reds fan will likely hate me for saying all this because Votto is the face of the franchise. Yes, I understand it. It hurts. It sucks. Believe me, I feel your pain as a die-hard Cubs fan who has seen guys like Greg Maddux leave.
The thing is, the Reds’ window is not only closed, there’s bars and cement over it. There is no hope. By the time the Reds might be able to compete in the NL Central, Votto will be really old. He’ll be so old, paying him $25 million a season will be like a stapler to the eye. Every year the Reds hold him, they’ll be losing value.
Wait, let’s rephrase. Every month they hold him, they lose value. This kind of package could catapult the Reds’ rebuild. If they draft well for three straight seasons, they’ll competing again in 3-4 years opposed to 5-6 (or longer).
Let’s look at the package. I’m not a huge Singleton guy, but he’s got power from the left side, which bodes well for a hitters’ park. He can play right away, get 500 ABs and likely not have to worry about success since the Astros threw him a ton of money, locking him up through arbitration. He would have nowhere to go in Houston, so I think it’s a good piece.
Bregman is a shortstop the Astros don’t need as they have a guy named Carlos Correa who has only drawn Alex Rodriguez comparisons — no big deal. Currently, Bregman is the No. 1 prospect in the Astros’ system, and he’s still got plenty upside to be realized in the minors. He’s still developing power (which also bodes well in a hitters’ park), and I really love his ability to make solid contact with really strong plate discipline. His ceiling might only be 15 homers, but if he gets on base at a high clip and continues to improve defensively, you’d have a very good major league player who can do good things sooner rather than later. I see him debuting in 2017.
Francis Martes is a right hander who throws hard. Hard throwers aren’t easy to find and they can’t be taught. He’s only 20 and is a big boy. He’s going to have to clean up his mechanics a bit (higher leg kick, less rush at the end) and might end up being a power reliever, but his star potential is really hard to ignore. I’d probably change his curveball to a slider based on his arm slot, but again — he’s only 20.
Riley Farrell is another RHP ranked high in the Astros’ system and throws 93-97. I definitely see him as a late-inning reliever who has to improve his command, but he’s definitely going to be a big leaguer. He gets guys out and has a ton of big-game experience since he came from TCU. He’s only 22, so there’s no real rush to bring him up. If he can improve his power slider command and throw it for a strike more consistently, his arsenal could get nasty. He’s a quality guy in this kind of deal.
The big prize here, as least from my perspective, is A.J. Reed. He’s another first baseman, and a top prospect in all of baseball. He’s a 22-year-old with an okay glove who can mash, and has really strong contact percentages, which is more rare for a power hitter. He’s a guy who can potentially hit third at the big league level in 2016 or 2017. Throw him in the Great American Ball Park, and yeah — have fun.
In all, the Reds would be getting very good talent for an aging vet who is owed a ton of money, and who is playing for a team that isn’t going to compete for years. It’s time for the Reds to get something of value here before it’s too late.
The Astros’ lineup would be awfully nasty with Votto in the middle, so will be interesting to see if things heat up — because they definitely should.
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