One year ago, many Detroit Tigers fans were counting on Anibal Sanchez to be a huge part of the team’s 2015 starting rotation. Sanchez quite arguably elevated his game to an elite territory in 2013, leading the American League in categories such as ERA (2.57), ERA+ (162) and FIP (2.39). He had another good, albeit injury-shortened season in 2014.
This past season, however, may have been the worst of Sanchez’s career. The right-hander ended up going 10-10 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 25 starts. In seasons in which he has thrown at least 100 innings (he threw 157 last year), his 79 ERA+ and 4.73 FIP were his worst ever. He made his final start of the year on Aug. 18 against the Chicago Cubs and was later shut down for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.
Most strikingly, Sanchez had an extremely difficult time keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering a tied-for-AL-worst 29 home runs. Between 2013-14, he allowed only 13 home runs combined across 308 innings.
Going into 2016, it is truly difficult to know what to expect out of the soon-to-be 32-year-old Sanchez. Yes, he has been a tremendous pitcher in the past, but his injury history and struggles from last season raise legitimate concerns.
For what it is worth, Fangraphs Steamer is projecting that Sanchez will indeed have a productive season in 2016, giving him a 10-9 record, a 3.87 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP through 28 starts in a 2.3 fWAR campaign. If those numbers turn out to be relatively accurate, he will give the Tigers a solid No. 3 starter behind Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann — which is what most fans are hoping for.
Still, it remains to be seen how everything will work out. The Tigers have a few other uncertainties, such as whether or not veteran slugger Victor Martinez can bounce back and what to expect out of promising youngster Daniel Norris in his first full year, but one could argue that Sanchez and his health are the biggest question marks of all.
If Sanchez can’t anchor the middle of the rotation, the Tigers might find themselves in a tight spot. Hopefully he can stay healthy and new pitching coach Rich Dubee can help get him back on the right track.