Gio Gonzalez Is Washington Nationals' Key To Success In 2016

A lot will need to happen for the Washington Nationals to bounce back from a disappointing season and return to the postseason in 2016 by overtaking the New York Mets atop the NL East. However, the fate of Washington’s 2016 may rest in the hands, or more accurately the left arm, of pitcher Gio Gonzalez.

If the Nationals are able to stay healthy in 2016 — and granted that’s a fairly big “if” considering the age of some key players and the injury-plagued 2015 season they had — Washington should be able to put together a formidable offense that will score enough runs to compete for a playoff spot. But if Washington expects to finish ahead of the Mets, owners of the best rotation in baseball, the Nationals need a starting rotation that can stack up to what New York has. That’s when Gonzalez becomes the team’s key figure.

The top of Washington’s rotation with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg is certainly comparable to New York’s, but matching the incredible rotation depth the Mets have is what the Nationals need to keep up with the reigning National League champs. At some point, the Nationals could get a boost from prospects A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito, but in the meantime, Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross will have to be at their best. Ross showed great promise last year and looks to have a bright future, while Roark is solid if unspectacular at the back end of a rotation. But the Nats need a proven veteran like Gonzalez to be a No. 3 starter who pitches like an ace.

Unfortunately for Washington, Gonzalez has seen a decline in his performance in recent years. After pitching brilliantly between 2010 and 2012, Gonzalez has seen his ERA rise noticeably in each of the last three years: from 3.36 in 2013 to 3.57 in 2014 to 3.79 last season. If that trend continues, Gonzalez would have an ERA slightly above four in 2016. That’d be fine for most teams, but it won’t be good enough for the Nationals to match what the Mets have in their arsenal.

If Washington’s rotation has a chance to rival the Mets’ pitching staff in 2016, they’re going to need better from Gonzalez. The Nationals don’t want to have to rely on youngsters like Ross, Cole and Giolito when they have a pitcher like Gonzalez they can lean on.

If Gonzalez can return to the form he had in past years, the Nationals will have a three-headed monster in him, Scherzer and Strasburg leading their rotation, with talented youngsters there to complement the proven veterans. But without a strong season from Gonzalez, the Nationals won’t be able to keep pace with New York’s rotation and may not be able to overtake the Mets atop the NL East.