Predicting Pittsburgh Pirates' 2016 Record Going Into Spring Training

The 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates are caught in the middle of a bad situation. The Saint Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are in the Pirates’ division. This means that aside from having to be their best, they must beat the Cardinals and Cubs in the standings and head-to-head. While the Cubs and Cardinals are looking to battle for the division crown, the Pirates will be looking to earn the second wild card.

The Pirates finished 2015 with a record of 98-64. Since that time, they lost outfielders Jeff Decker and Travis Snider to free agency, along with first baseman Pedro Alvarez. They also traded starting second baseman Neil Walker to the New York Mets for Jonathon Niese. In their starting rotation, they lost A.J. Burnett to retirement and J.A. Happ to  free agency, while trading Charlie Morton to their in-state rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies. In addition to Niese the Pirates added cast-off Ryan Vogelsong for a second trip through Pittsburgh.

In the bullpen, Joe Blanton, Antonio Bastardo and Joakim Soria will be replaced by Eric O’Flaherty, Neftali Feliz and Juan Nicasio. Meanwhile at first base, they traded for Jason Rogers and signed John Jaso as the uber sub, backing up first, left and right. Jaso’s offense is slightly better than Alvarez’s, but his defense is unknown.

So where are the Pirates now? They have downgraded basically everywhere. Their pitching rotation is a step down and has less depth. Their bullpen is still steady and well above average, but every offseason move was a slight downgrade. On the offensive side of the ball, the Pirates didn’t upgrade anywhere while losing Walker. If they’re lucky, they’ll get to 91 wins. They are not lucky.

The Pirates are looking at a mediocre third-place finish this year. They will be 79-83. They will allow more runs and score a handful less. Signing Andrew McCutchen should be the front office’s priority this season, so they can reload for 2017.