Predicting St. Louis Cardinals' 2016 Record Going Into Spring Training

Heading into 2016 spring training, the St. Louis Cardinals face more uncertainty than they have in quite awhile. They’ll be opening the season with two youngsters in their outfield and may even be without star catcher, Yadier Molina. In the pitching rotation the Cardinals are replacing John Lackey with Mike Leake.

On the surface, the changes the Cardinals made look to be that of a team trying to stay young and competitive. The issue with predicting their 2016 record is that two of their key free agent losses, Lackey and outfielder Jason Heyward, went to the Chicago Cubs. While this probably will only cause a game or two swing head to head, it makes the Cubs considerably more talented heading into 2016.

The Cardinals will be relying on Carlos Martinez and Leake this season to cover for Lackey and injured Lance Lynn. Lynn and Lackey have both been innings eaters while they have been with the Cardinals. Lynn has pitched 175 or more innings in each of the past four seasons. Lackey, meanwhile, has pitched at least 189 innings every year since he missed the 2012 season while injured.  While Leake has a history of being reliable, Martinez hasn’t even pitched 300 innings in his career yet, having made just 37 starts.  Starting pitching is just one component of the Cardinals’ issues heading into spring training.

Heyward is a whole other matter. The Cardinals are replacing Jon Jay and Heyward with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. The new combination has a chance to be as good offensively as the veterans that they are replacing, given how special Grichuk appears to be. However, Grichuk and Piscotty are not at the same level defensively as Heyward and Jay. Right now Heyward is projected to be the starting center fielder for the Cubs, while Jay is starting in left for the San Diego Padres. Losing that defense in combination with a downgrade in starting pitching will hurt the Cardinals in 2016.

This team will closely resemble the 2014 team that was carried into the NLCS by Adam Wainwright‘s arm. Unlike that team, the 2016 Cardinals will have trouble winning this division with the young Cubs. The Cardinals will go 92-70 which should be good enough to host the Wild Card game.