The Philadelphia Phillies are a team in transition. They are transitioning from the Jimmy Rollins–Chase Utley era to the era of Maikel Franco–Freddy Galvis. Whether this new era will last or be as successful as the previous one is yet to be seen.
The Phillies ended the 2015 season 63-99, leading the National League in losses. Since then, they have focused on retooling their pitching rotation. They acquired Jeremy Hellickson from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Charlie Morton from the Pittsburgh Pirates in separate trades. They also acquired Vincent Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer in the deal for closer Ken Giles. Those two will battle holdover Jerad Eickhoff for the last two spots in the rotation. Add four of those five to top prospect Aaron Nola and the Phillies have rebuilt a rotation that was built around Cole Hamels last year. This rotation has a good chance to be decent. In trading Giles, though, they downgraded the bullpen substantially.
David Hernandez will step in as the closer after signing a one-year contract. The other expected high leverage relievers are signed to minor league contracts. Andrew Bailey, Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri and James Russell are all non-roster invitees with late inning MLB experience. They have other promising pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jeanmar Gomez that the Phillies hope are ready to progress in 2016.
Offensively, the Phillies are a team full of questions. Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, and Peter Bourjos provide a nice floor for the team. Howard will provide power, while Ruiz will provide OBP support backing up Cameron Rupp. Franco and Galvis will lead a cadre of youngsters who will provide a nice ceiling for this team.
With the strong rotation in place the Phillies will win at least 71 games. With a young offense the Phillies will lose at least 65 games. My money is on the offense pulling the pitching down with it. The Phillies will improve 8 games to end 2016 with a record of 71-91, even in a weak NL East.
