Predicting Toronto Blue Jays' 2016 Record Going Into Spring Training

After a season full of hot and cold streaks, the Toronto Blue Jays ultimately finished 2015 with a record of 93-69, propelling them into the postseason and all the way to the ALCS. If the Blue Jays expect to repeat as AL East champs in 2016, they may need to match or exceed their win total from last season. However, are those reasonable expectations for Toronto?

On the one hand, there’s no doubting that Toronto has one of the most potent offenses in baseball. The likes of Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Russell Martin are all back with the Blue Jays, with the added benefit of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki being around for the entire season. However, the outfield production outside of Bautista is somewhat questionable, Tulowitzki has a long history of injuries that could prevent him from contributing over the course of 162 games, and Donaldson is coming off a season that far surpassed anything he had done previously with no guarantee he can replicate his MVP performance.

The Toronto offense will be powerful, but with those concerns and age potentially becoming a factor for certain players, it may not be quite as good as it was a year ago. Thus, the Blue Jays may need to get more out of their pitching staff this season. With a healthy Marcus Stroman and the addition of JA Happ, the Toronto rotation does appear to be stronger than it was a year ago, even if David Price left in free agency. If nothing else, the rotation will be deeper than it was in 2015. With the addition of Drew Storen, the Blue Jays may also have an improved bullpen this year, with Storen and Roberto Osuna forming a powerful 1-2 punch at the end of games.

Of course, Toronto’s record will also be affected by the strength of their division. The other four teams in the AL East all had positive offseasons and begin the 2016 campaign with a realistic chance, some more than others, of winning the division. This means the Blue Jays are in for a fight in every single game they play against a divisional opponent this season, especially since they are the defending champions the other teams will have extra incentive to take down.

So where does that leave Toronto in 2016? The Blue Jays have a team that’s capable of repeating as AL East champs, but that doesn’t mean they will. A strong AL East and Toronto’s streakiness last season are a concern, even for a team with such a dynamic offense and an improved pitching staff. The Blue Jays will take a step back in 2016, winning 10 fewer games than in 2015. Toronto will finish the season at 83-79, which will not be enough to return to the postseason.