Nathan Karns Set Up To Claim Last Spot In Seattle Mariners' Rotation

One of the biggest competitions in Seattle Mariners camp this offseason is for the last spot in the starting rotation. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Wade Miley form the first three spots in the rotation, which should come as no surprise. The Mariners have said the last two spots are up for grabs, but excluding Taijuan Walker from the rotation is not only foolish, it’s not going to happen. That leaves the last spot open to a large list of candidates that includes Joe Weiland, Vidal Nuno and Mike Montgomery. When it comes down to it, though, the two with the best chance of cracking the rotation are James Paxton and Nathan Karns.

Paxton has been a bit of a hometown favorite, with fans hoping that the injuries that have plagued him the last few years are finally behind him. Paxton definitely has the ability to be a middle of the rotation starter, but there are still a lot of question marks around him. For Paxton, the biggest indication that he might be starting the season in Triple-A and not in the majors is the recent release of the scheduled starters for the first games of spring training.

It could seem like it’s a bit early to assume so much off of spring training starts that haven’t even taken place yet, but when you look closely it becomes quite clear. Scott Servais, new manager of the Mariners, said after the schedule release, “It’s all [pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre‘s] plan to work back from Opening Day and try to make sure everybody is in a good spot.” With Paxton slated for the first game and Karns for the second (followed by Walker, Miley and Iwakuma) that statement would seem to imply that Paxton is the one on the outside looking in.

This should come as no surprise considering the price the new Mariners regime gave up to acquire Karns from the Tampa Bay Rays. Trading Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Danny Farquhar in the Karns deal put Karns in a spot where it was his position to lose. He performed above average in 2015 as well, posting a 3.67 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 147 innings with the Rays.

The ceiling on Paxton is a bit higher, although Karns still lines up to be a middle of the rotation starter in his career. Hernandez, Iwakuma, Miley and Walker make a very strong starting four, so whether Karns does get the last spot in the rotation or Paxton surprises and snags it, the Mariners should be in a good position when it comes to their starting rotation.