Dominick Cruz takes on Demetrious Johnson tonight in the 1st title fight on cable TV since UFC 75. Here’s a look at the betting lines:
Odds from BetUS Sportsbook. Accurate as of 0800 October 1, 2011
Dominick Cruz (-450) vs Demetrious Johnson (+325)
Pick: Cruz
Cruz has posed a riddle that no one has been able to solve at bantamweight. Additionally, he has a significant length/reach advantage over Mighty Mouse that his style will exploit. Johnson must take Cruz down to win, and that is unlikely.
Stefan Struve (+160) vs Pat Barry (-200)
Pick: Barry
Struve has been KO’d multiple times. Until we see evidence that he can really use that length/reach to his advantage, he isn’t going to be winning many fights at the UFC level.
Charlie Brenneman (+190) vs Anthony Johnson (-240)
Pick: Johnson
Johnson is fully prepared for this fight unlike Rick Story. Johnson is a good wrestler with power who is the biggest/stronger guy in the division.
Matt Wiman (-220) vs Mac Danzig (+175)
Pick: Wiman
Danzig is the worst TUF winner. Wiman should win via control.
Yves Edwards (-180) vs Rafaello Oliveira (+150)
Pick: Oliveira
Edwards is a cool guy, but he’s clearly on the decline.
Michael Johnson (-200) vs Paul Sass (+160)
Pick: Johnson
Johnson’s wrestling should be the difference in this match. Sass is skilled but he’s got his triangle and not much else. Rashad Evans thinks highly of Johnson. Go with Johnson.
Mike Easton (-350) vs Byron Bloodworth (+250)
Pick: Easton
Bloodworth is making his UFC debut on short notice. Easton hasn’t fought in awhile, but has enough experience to win here.
Shane Roller (-200) vs TJ Grant (+160)
Pick: Roller
Roller is a pretty decent gatekeeper at lightweight. Grant’s game is wrestling, and he’s not as good as Roller.
Josh Neer (-260) vs Keith Wisniewski (+200)
Pick: Neer
Fight of the Night. Neer wins this via being a better fighter all around.
Joseph Sandoval (-115) vs Walel Watson (-115)
Pick: Watson
It looks like the style matchup favours Watson. Watson will have length/reach and is a good submissions guy with double the number of fights.
