Who Should Advance In Eliminator Round?

By ryanpritt on October 23, 2014

If NASCAR‘s new Chase for the Sprint Cup format has proven anything, it’s that anything can happen. Who’d have thought after the regular season each had that neither Jimmie Johnson nor Dale Earnhardt Jr. would make the final eight? If not for a miraculous win Sunday at Talladega, Brad Keselowski would have likely joined them as well.

Certainly, any driver  is one wreck, engine failure, or blown tire away from elimination after the next three races, but all things being equal, four of the eight remaining drivers seem to stand out as favorites to make the next cut. Yes, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and the aforementioned Keselowski seem to be a cut above the other four remaining.

The numbers don’t lie. In a format that was set up to be more about winning, Logano, Harvick, Gordon and Keselowski seem to be perfectly suited, at least this year. Consider that the four have combined to win 18-of-32 Sprint Cup races so far this year, including all six of the Chase races so far with Logano and Keselowski each winning two. The other four drivers remaining, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Carl Edwards, have combined to win just three races this season, with Newman and Kenseth still winless.

In terms of average finish this year, Gordon (10.3), Logano (11.5), Keselowski (12.9) and Harvick (13.4) rank first, second, third and fifth, respectively, among the eight remaining, with Newman (13.3) just edging Harvick for fourth. However, Harvick has arguably had the strongest car of anyone on a week-to-week basis, and has run into some bad luck and pit-road issues that have skewed that number quite a bit.

Phoenix, Martinsville and Texas make up the Eliminator round, and the four happened to win at two of those tracks earlier, with Harvick picking up a win at Phoenix and Logano winning at Texas. A win for any of the remaining Chasers will automatically earn a spot in the Championship race at Homestead in the season finale.

Finally, each of these four would seem to have added motivation outside of just winning a championship. For Harvick, it would be his first and would give his already solid career, the one thing it seemingly lacks.Harvick started his Sprint Cup career as the immediate and sudden replacement for Dale Earnhardt after his tragic death in the 2001 Daytona 500. It’s hard to imagine a title meaning more to any driver.

For Gordon, it would a fifth, and perhaps final, championship and the ultimate proof that even now, as an older driver, he still has what it takes to get it done. With or without a title, it has been quite a comeback season for Gordon, who has more wins this year (four) than any season since 2007. He could take a championship and ride off into the sunset, or take it and shoot for another to tie his Hendrick teammate Johnson at six.

Logano could finally live up to the moniker he was given and probably unfairly held up to — sliced bread. Still, just 24 years old, Logano made his Sprint Cup debut in 2008 and struggled through five full-time seasons since, winning a combined three races. But he has blossomed this year with Penske racing, winning five races and setting career-bests in virtually every measurable statistic. A first championship would put quite the exclamation point on his statement season.

Finally, there’s Keselowski, breathing new life as well as a sigh of relief after Sunday’s heroics. Keselowski would like nothing more than to prove his 2012 championship wasn’t a fluke, and he’s seemingly had the speed all year to do just that. Sunday’s was just the latest example of what Keselowski is capable of when he has a fast car and his series-leading six wins also speak volumes of his ability. The other seven Chasers may regret dearly letting the No. 2 car cross the line first at Talladega.

Ryan Pritt is a NASCAR writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on twitter @RPritt, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.