NASCAR

Which Chase Drivers Will Remain After Phoenix?

By Ryan Pritt on November 7, 2014

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After the chaos of last week’s race at Texas brought the eight remaining Chase drivers to within 18 points of each other, anything and everything could happen this week at Phoenix, the last race of the Eliminator round. Somehow, four drivers will separate themselves from the other four and will vie for the NASCAR championship at Homestead the following week.

One thing we know for sure is that at least three drivers will get to Homestead on points alone after non-Chasers Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson won the first two races of the round at Martinsville and Texas. A win still gets a driver in on Sunday, and there are certainly a few guys left who can do just that on Sunday.

All told, the eight remaining Chasers have combined to win 12 races at Phoenix, with everyone but Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano having won at least one race. However, it’s no secret that the Penske cars have shown strength at all tracks this year, and the two finished third and fourth respectively at the spring race in the desert earlier this year.

Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick have each won multiple races, with Harvick taking a whopping five races at the track, including three of the last four and two in a row. Edwards and Gordon each have two wins at Phoenix, but the view from here is that Harvick is the man to beat and with his back against the wall currently in eighth in points, six points behind Gordon in fourth, expect Harvick to win his third straight Phoenix race and make the championship round at Homestead.

With Harvick winning, that would leave three drivers to race in on points. While 18 points may not seem like much separating the top from the bottom, Denny Hamlin and Logano each sit at 12 points ahead of Gordon, giving them a bit of cushion. In fact, if either finish 11th or better or 12th plus a lap led, it would be enough to punch their ticket to Homestead.

Logano has probably had the best Chase of anyone, and given his current cushion and performance at Phoenix earlier this season, one would have to think he is safe as well. Go ahead and put the No. 22 car into the Homestead field.

That brings us to Hamlin, who finished 19th at the spring Phoenix race. Another performance like that would likely leave Hamlin on the outside looking in. But he has finished in the top 12 in 12 of his 18 races at Phoenix, and after back-to-back finishes of 28th and 19th, the thinking here is that he’s due for a solid finish. Expect Hamlin to contend for the win, finish in the top 10, and find himself racing for a championship a week from Sunday.

With three in, that leaves Gordon, Edwards, Keselowski, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman vying for one spot. A case can be made for any of the five, and all of them finished in the top 12 at the spring race this year. We’ve already seen Keselowski pull a miracle win at Talladega to advance in the chase, and Newman is quietly in a prime position in third, 10 points ahead of Gordon and needing only a ninth-place finish or better to clinch a spot. He finished seventh in the spring race, for the record.

However, it’s just hard to imagine that the racing gods don’t owe Gordon one after last week, no matter who you blame his late crash on at Texas. Gordon has had a fairytale comeback season and has been the sentimental favorite all season, but aside from the story lines is the fact that Gordon has had one of the best cars week in and week out.

So on Sunday, Gordon will finish second and Newman will struggle just enough to allow Gordon to sneak through the door, becoming the fourth and final driver to advance.

Expect anything on Sunday, and fans should see as competitive a race as we’ve ever seen. But in the end, expect Harvick, Logano, Hamlin and Gordon to do just enough to get by.

Ryan Pritt is a NASCAR writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on twitter @RPritt, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.