Taking The Over/Under On All NBA Eastern Conference Team Wins
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The NBA season is nearly underway and the over/unders for total wins have been released. I will walk you through the Eastern Conference team by team, and tell you whether you should take the over/under, also predicting the total number of wins you can expect for each team. I am using projections from sportsbook.com.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (16.5)
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15. Philadelphia 76ers (16.5)
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Under - 12
This Sixers team, which was absolutely terrible a year ago, got even worse over the summer losing Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young. Of course, this is all part of their tank to rebuild strategy, but the bottom line is they will not even win the 19 games they won a season ago. They are really, really bad.
14. Milwaukee Bucks (24.5)
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14. Milwaukee Bucks (24.5)
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Under - 20
Some people are really high on this Bucks team as a sleeper team this season, but please don’t forget this is virtually the same team that won 15 games a year ago. Sure, Jabari Parker will help (I think he will be really good), Antetokounmpo has a year under his belt, but that isn’t enough to have any confidence in the over. They are good for 20 wins tops. This team is bad.
13. Orlando Magic (28.5)
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13. Orlando Magic (28.5)
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Under - 24
This team will be better than last year, but looking at that roster, figuring out who is going to score the basketball is a bit perplexing. Adding Fournier and Frye will help, but this team will continue to struggle to score. They will be better, but only by a game or two. I’d be pretty confident taking the under here.
12. Indiana Pacers (34)
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12. Indiana Pacers (34)
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Under - 25
The Pacers, more than any other team, will experience a monumental drop off from a season ago. Between Lance Stephenson walking, losing Paul George to a horrific injury, and extending an overwhelmingly mediocre coach, not much looks good for the upcoming season. I couldn’t be more emphatic in taking the under.
11. Boston Celtics (26.5)
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11. Boston Celtics (26.5)
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Over - 32
I think the Celtics could make some noise in a very unpredictable Eastern Conference. The additions of Thornton, Zeller and Turner will pay off. Smart can’t shoot a ball into the ocean, but will immediately be an elite defender. Rondo will miss the start of the season most likely, but once he returns, watch for them to be a competitive team. I think the over is easy here.
10. Brooklyn Nets (42)
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10. Brooklyn Nets (42)
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Under - 35
I really don’t know how the Nets even get back to the level they were last season. I think they are a team that regresses significantly. Even if Lopez stays healthy and Deron Williams returns to a moderately respectable level, I’m not sure this team has enough to make the playoffs again.
9. New York Knicks (41)
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9. New York Knicks (41)
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Under - 37
Really, did the Knicks do anything to get noticeably better in the offseason? Sure, adding Calderon is an upgrade, but he only makes one of the worst defensive teams in the league even worse in that category. I’ll just say this. The Knicks will have Stoudemire and Bargnani protecting the rim. Enough said. Take the under here all day.
8. Detroit Pistons (36)
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8. Detroit Pistons (36)
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Over - 38
I’m high on the Pistons this season. I really like their roster. Adding Jodie Meeks and Cartier will drastically improve their shooting. Augustin might be the best backup point guard in the league. Looks like they will also be moving Josh Smith back to his natural power forward position and bring Monroe off the bench, which will be huge. I like the over here, but not by much.
7. Miami Heat (43.5)
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7. Miami Heat (43.5)
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Under - 42
I think people are too bullish on the Heat. They did a nice job pulling together a respectable roster, but I’m not convinced that Wade can stay healthy, nor am I convinced that Bosh can carry the burden he will be expected to. They will remain competitive though and I have them pegged at 42. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them more towards the 45-mark. I’d stay away from this over/under.
6. Toronto Raptors (49)
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6. Toronto Raptors (49)
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Under - 44
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Raptors, but I see them regressing from last year. Following the Gay trade, this team really gelled and came together, becoming one of the hotter teams in the league. Hard to see them carrying that forward in an improved conference. I think the under is a lock here.
5. Atlanta Hawks (42)
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5. Atlanta Hawks (42)
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Over - 45
I like the Hawks to take a step forward this year, assuming Horford can stay healthy. This team is well constructed and well coached. I also like the addition of Sefolosha and Bazemore. This is honestly one of the biggest locks in the East in terms of over/under. Take the over all day.
4. Washington Wizards (49.5)
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4. Washington Wizards (49.5)
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Under - 46
I initially had the Wizards with more wins, but I think Beal’s injury will cost them some games early on. Still, this team is really good. I love the addition of Pierce. It may cost them a bit in terms of perimeter defense, but they gain so much in terms of a veteran presence and true grittiness, it more than makes up for it. That said, they definitely won't hit the 49-win mark. Take the under.
3. Charlotte Hornets (46.5)
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3. Charlotte Hornets (46.5)
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Over - 49
I am really, really high on the Hornets as contenders in the east. They improved an already good team significantly. Stephenson will excel on this squad. MKG looks poised to take the next step, assuming his “fixed” jumpshot sticks. Jefferson could emerge as a dark horse MVP candidate. Bet the over.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (59)
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2. Cleveland Cavaliers (59)
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Under - 55
I actually think this is one of the easiest decisions in the East. The Cavs stock is so overly inflated right now. There is an inevitable learning curve this team will go through that will cost them some wins early on. They should gel by the end of the year, but 59 wins is WAY too high. They will be really good, but the under is a very easy choice here.
1. Chicago Bulls (55.5)
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1. Chicago Bulls (55.5)
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Over - 60
I love the Bulls to be the best team in the East, but with a huge caveat -- that Rose remains healthy all season. If he does, this is a 60 win team. If not, this could be a 45 win team. He makes that much of a difference. I love the over here, but counting on Rose to remain healthy could be risky.