What Exactly Is Brian Shaw’s Plan for Denver Nuggets?

By Court Zierk @courtzierk on November 9, 2014

Entering Friday night’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets, concern and skepticism was abound. Neither team had played up to the level they were purportedly capable of, and although early in the season, this game had become unexpectedly important for both teams.

On one side of the court stood the consensus best player on the planet, and a cast of incredibly talented NBA players, alongside of a head coach with four games of NBA coaching experience. On the other, a second-year coach with a mismatched unit of relatively anonymous players. The two teams really couldn’t have been much different. I was fascinated to watch how this game unfolded. One team responded to the situation, while the other crumbled, and all I could attribute the poor play of the Nuggets to was highly questionable coaching.

Since Brian Shaw’s introduction as head coach in June of 2013, the biggest question surrounding him has been what his system will look like. What style of basketball does he want to play? One year and four and a half months later, and we still are no closer to knowing the answer to this question.

As I watched the Nuggets struggle through their loss to the Cavaliers on Friday night, a couple of things crystallized for me. One, these players don’t fit together. Two, Shaw doesn’t seem to have an actual offensive system.

Countless times throughout that game, the Nuggets had two players standing on the wings, while the point guard dribbled the ball aimlessly at the top of the key waiting for the bigs to get open in the post. Once that didn’t happen, the point guard — either Randy Foye or Nate Robinson — attempted to drive to the basket, throwing up a terrible shot in the process. Since the SG and SF were still standing on the wings, and the PF and C were outside of the paint, there was nobody in position for the offensive rebound.

This doesn’t even remotely resemble any type of organized basketball system I am familiar with. Now, to give Shaw the benefit of the doubt, I assume he is trying to run his offense through the post, making Kenneth Faried or Timofey Mozgov responsible for looking for a cutting player, putting the ball on the floor, taking the mid-range jumper, or passing the ball back out to the perimeter. This would be similar to how the Los Angeles Lakers used Pau Gasol during his time as an assistant coach, or how David West was used by the Indiana Pacers during his tenure there.

But, I also recall as part of his presser during Nuggets media day, he specifically acknowledged that this team doesn’t have the type of bigs that can make that style of offense work. So while I understand what he may be trying to do, the fact that he is doing something he explicitly stated he would not do is a bit concerning.

The other part that is frustrating about watching the Nuggets offense is the lack of ball and player movement. By running their offense through the post with such frequency, the paint is often clogged, and there are few lanes for Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Danilo Gallinari to drive through to get to the rim. This has resulted in their heavy dependence on the outside jump shot, and through five games, they are among the league’s worst in terms of field goal percentage (42%).

Another point of contention since Shaw took over the reigns from the ousted George Karl, is the Nuggets’ comparatively low reliance on the fast break, a hallmark of their offense for years. Again, in the preseason, coach Shaw paid lip-service to his desire to pick up the offense’s pace and take advantage of the altitude, and of his team’s depth, to tire out their opponents.

So far, the fast break appears to have been completely deemphasized, and the ball is being walked very deliberately up the court on nearly every possession. That isn’t to say, there haven’t been opportunities. The Nuggets are ranked eighth in the league in fast break points, but I believe this number is deceiving, as the majority of those points have come once the Nuggets have fallen significantly behind on the scoreboard.

The Nuggets’ average biggest lead is 3.2 points, by far the smallest in the NBA — The Houston Rocket‘s average biggest lead is 22.5. Their average scoring margin through three quarters is -13.4, again the worst in the league. Once down by a large margin, the offense opens up a bit and the team is able to secure their fast break points, and claw their way back into the game. Their average fourth quarter margin is +6, which by the way is the best in the NBA.

All of this, when taken in aggregate, tells me that the system that Shaw is attempting to implement, one which he adamantly insisted he wouldn’t, is ill-suited for this roster, and is failing miserably. Once the Nuggets get behind in the first quarter, which they do by a league worst 9.2 points per game, any semblance of coaching goes out the window, and chaos ensues.

Through the first two weeks of the season, there have been no adjustments made at halftime, or in-game, to alter the plan in any meaningful or strategic way to counteract what their opponent is trying to do. For instance, when the skeleton-crew Oklahoma City Thunder came out in a zone defense, the Nuggets failed to adjust and were embarrassingly defeated, handing the Thunder their only win on the season.

To me, it boils down to a matter of how invested this organization is in Shaw. If they want to extend him a greater deal of trust and control, the front office is going to have to overhaul this roster to fit with what it seems like he is trying to implement. If the front office believes in this core of players, they would have been better off not getting rid of Karl in the first place. But, since that hand can’t be re-dealt, they would be wise to search elsewhere for a coach who can operate within the construct of the current roster.

If neither of these happen, Nuggets fans could be in for a long and tumultuous ride. On the bright side, those 2015 mock drafts could become meaningful very soon. In ping pong balls we trust.

Court Zierk is a Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter@CourtZierk, “Like”him on Facebook or add him onGoogle