The Los Angeles Lakers are eyeballs-deep in the craziest, most competitive conference the NBA has ever seen. No, I’m not breaking any news with that statement, but fans anxious for a sustainable rebuild should be thankful for the arms race currently taking place out west.
As teams get better, so do the Lakers’ chances of keeping their first-round draft pick in June.
It comes down to simple mathematics. The Lakers will play 82 games – 52 against the Western Conference, 30 against the east. Last year, the west boasted an overall record of 674-556 for a winning percentage of .547. This year should follow that trend, and the Lakers will play higher quality teams on a nightly basis compared to those in the East.
An important disclaimer is that the Lakers are nowhere near as bad a team as the dregs of said Eastern Conference. The Philadelphia 76ers are actively trying to lose, and the New York Knicks can’t seem to do anything else. That being said, their schedules are the reverse of a Western team. The majority of their games are against other mediocre-to-outright-bad Eastern teams.
For comparison, they’ll play each other a total of four times, and smart money would have those team splitting those games. Would any smart money ever have these Lakers splitting the season series with any of their division foes? Yeah, me neither.
Without a significant injury (Kobe Bryant being shut down, for example) or a couple trades to turn assets like Ed Davis, Jordan Hill or Jeremy Lin into draft picks and financial flexibility, it’s hard to imagine the Lakers will pile up enough losses to contend for the league’s worst record.
Conference’s worst record is another story.
As it stands now, the Lakers sit four games ahead (or behind, depending on your inclination toward tanking) of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who’ve played much of the season without starters Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic. Those three are rumored to return within the next week or two and, combined with Andrew Wiggins’ recent stellar play, could potentially win more frequently. The other side of that coin, however, is they could extend the injuries as long as they can and continue to lose. If they go that route, I just can’t see the Lakers “catching” them.
That bottom spot in the conference is important because that would all but guarantee the top-five pick they need. Since 2010, the worst team from the Western Conference has finished with at least the fourth-worst record every year, which would give the Lakers roughly an 80 percent chance at keeping their pick and jumps to 96 if they can manage the third-worst record.
Rooting for losses might be below the Lakers’ royal Buss family, but that’s their best bet to significantly improve the roster. Trade speculation and rumors of shutting Kobe down and even early retirement all seem connected to losing, don’t they? Fortunately, because of the conference they play in, this might be the only season fans will have to trudge through this kind of mediocrity.
Anthony F. Irwin is an NBA, NFL, MLB and NCAA Football contributor for www.Rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google. Send him an email at .
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