Jim O’Connor-US PRESSWIRE
As it stands right now, any non-conference loss would be a bad loss for St. John’s in 2012-13.
Things can obviously change between now and December — a team could surprise and be better than expected — but the Johnnies’ schedule is packed with potential resume-killing games.
They open the season at home against a Detroit, a team that won last year’s matchup. The Titans still have Ray McCallum, but they lost some other pieces and won’t be as formidable this year — especially on the road. Still, St. John’s has a lot of new faces, and in the first game of the season, a loss is not out of the question.
Just two days later, St. John’s will participate in the Charleston Classic, opening the event against host Charleston. The Cougars are always a threat at home, but St. John’s should win. They’d play either Murray State or Auburn next, and Baylor, Colorado and Dayton are potential third round opponents. So the second and third rounds are really the only spots where St. John’s can afford to drop a game.
The rest of the schedule includes duds Holy Cross, Florida Gulf Coast, NJIT, Fordham, St. Francis (NY) and UNC-Asheville. Even South Carolina, in the SEC/Big East Challenge, isn’t intimidating. The Johnnies will visit San Francisco, a solid mid-major, but even a loss on the road to the Dons would not be evaluated favorably.
The importance of a strong schedule has been highlighted in recent years, most notably by Virginia Tech. St. John’s should not rely on taking down Big East giants because, frankly, the Johnnies are not good enough. They’ll win a big conference game here and there, but Big East wins alone won’t land St. John’s a bid to the NCAA tournament.
In the end, St. John’s essentially needs to take care of business out of conference. If the Johnnies can do that and finish middle of the pack in conference play, they’ll stand a solid chance of dancing in March.
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