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For the second straight season, the Wisconsin Badgers find themselves in an NCAA tournament regional final. And for the second straight season, the Arizona Wildcats stand in the way of a bid to the Final Four.
The last time the two teams faced off, the result was a heart-pounding 64-63 overtime victory for Bo Ryan’s team that sent the Badgers off to college basketball‘s signature event for the first time since 2000. Could we see a repeat of that classic encounter on Saturday? Based on the two teams’ performances in the Big Dance of 2015, it seems inevitable.
In defeating North Carolina on Thursday, Wisconsin showcased the versatility that has helped them win 34 of 37 games this season. Even as both Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes scuffled early, Sam Dekker stepped to the forefront, allowing the Badgers to remain close through the first half. As matters wore on, Kaminsky became more aggressive, Hayes made a few key plays and reserve guard Zak Showalter came up with six huge points to help Wisconsin motor into the Elite Eight with a 79-72 win.
For the game, Ryan’s Badgers hit on 46.4 percent of their shots against the Tar Heels – a number that belies the level of difficulty Wisconsin experienced against Roy Williams’ team. North Carolina frustrated the Badgers for much of the evening with their ability to convert in transition and knock down three-point shots. But in true Badger style, Wisconsin weathered the storm and executed down the stretch when it mattered most.
More of the same will be required against the Wildcats. A 68-60 victor over Xavier in the other regional semifinal, Arizona possesses the makeup of a potential national champion. The Wildcats score at a high rate (76.6 points per game), are tough defensively (59 points per game against) and like the Badgers, are highly efficient on offense (48.6 percent shooting).
Arizona is big, athletic and deep. They have six players who average at least 9.1 points per outing. They outrebound the opposition by a full nine boards per game. And in a case of statistical irony, they sport an identical 34-3 record for 2015.
What will the difference be this time around? When they last met, Wisconsin eked out a win behind 28 points and 11 boards from Kaminsky. The 7-footer was unstoppable on that occasion, connecting on 11-of-20 shots from the field. Simply put, Arizona couldn’t match up with Kaminsky’s ability to play on both the inside and perimeter. We’ll find out if the Wildcats can gain a more favorable outcome this time around.
Of course, the Badgers have some worries of their own. Even as draft experts have raved about Duke‘s Jahlil Okafor, Wildcat freshman Stanley Johnson has put together a huge year of his own. A versatile performer, Johnson paces the Wildcats in scoring at 14 points per contest. The California native shots better than 44 percent from the field and has knocked down 37.4 percent of his threes this season. At 6-foot-7, Johnson can play either inside or out, making him a potential nightmare cover on defense. His impending matchup with Dekker, who scored a career-high 23 points against North Carolina, figures to be must-watch television.
The Wildcats also possess enough size to provide the Badgers with trouble inside. Both Kaleb Tarczewski and Dusan Ristic are physical centers who close off the middle defensively. Kaminsky will therefore need another big game from the outside to bolster Wisconsin’s hopes. When they last met, Kaminsky hit on 3-of-5 from long distance. He’ll need a similar performance on Saturday.
Add it all up and this contest can accurately be described as a toss-up. Rarely do two teams offer such striking similarities. Taking everything into account, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ryan and Sean Miller look at the opposite side and see a mirror-image of themselves.
The last time they met proved to be a classic. We should all expect the same this time around.
Matt Johnson is a Big 10 basketball writer for www.rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter at mattytheole or “like” him on Facebook.
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