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The Predictalator has already played the 2016 NCAA Tournament 50,000 times to create the Bracket Odds table with the chances of any team making it to any level in the tournament, as well as the Predictalated Bracket with the machine’s most likely outcomes. Here, we break down each region to look at the best teams, sleepers and Cinderellas.
See: How it Works, a Tournament Summary and Regional Previews: South, West, East and Midwest.
How it Works
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.
Tournament Summary
Michigan State, a two seed from the Midwest, is our most likely national champion at 19.8% likely to win it all despite playing in the toughest overall region. Last year, Kentucky was the most likely champion we have ever seen at 44.3% (Duke and Wisconsin were next and the “Field” was still greater than 50%). In 2014, no team won the title more than 11% of the time. This year may seem “wide open” in a relative sense, but it is right in the middle based on the previous 12 seasons’ simulations. Just three teams – Michigan State, Kansas (18.8%) and North Carolina (12.2%) are more than ten percent likely to win it all, while there are only four other teams – Virginia (9.5%), Oregon (7.5%), Kentucky (6.1%) and Villanova (5.0%) that have a five percent chance or better.
With Virginia getting a third straight attempt to make the Final Four from a region including Michigan State, the Cavaliers, who rank #3 in our final regular season power rankings, are in a tough spot yet again. The most likely Final Four for 2016 is Michigan State, Kansas, UNC and Oregon (three one seeds and a two seed). Due to the difficulty of the Midwest, Kansas is actually a little more likely to make the Final Four (49.0%) than Michigan State (48.2%), though they are the two clear favorites in this tournament. It’s important to keep in mind that this exact Final Four only happens 3.0% of the time. Virginia is next at 28.2% (the Midwest is won by Michigan State or Virginia 76.4% of the time), while only Kentucky (20.9%) and Villanova (20.0%) have a better than one-in-five chance at the Final Four otherwise.
In the most likely “Predictalated Bracket,” a quick review of the results may seem pretty boring. The most likely Elite Eight has four one seeds, three two seeds and a three seed (West Virginia). However, two five seeds – both from the incredibly underrated (by the committee) Big Ten – advance to the most likely Sweet 16. Seeds from 7 through 11 looks interchangeable. In fact, in the 7-10 and 8-9 games, the simulations advance the worse seeded team through in five of the eight matchups.
In recent years, we have felt that the selection committee “got it right” when it comes to seeding the top teams. This is not one of those years. In fact, this bracket is the least correlated we have ever seen with respect to the PredictionMachine.com team rankings (evaluating the “best” teams) and what the committee did with team inclusion, ranking and seeding. Even given the “pod” system that places priority on region and logistics as well the number of complex procedures governing the seeding process, we think this committee’s output is both disappointing for 2016 and a concern for future seasons. To a degree that does not seem justifiable or rational, considerable weight was given to strength-of-schedule, particularly for the conferences that have “gamed” the system of conference scheduling such as the Pac-12 (the Big 12 was first to this party, but the Pac-12 just did it better).
While we would actually prefer to reward resume over talent, some reasonable consideration needs to be given for talent and expected chances for success. For instance, in our updated Power Rankings, NINE teams got into the tournament as at-large teams despite being ranked 50th or worse. Those teams are Temple (#100), Tulsa (#60), Michigan (#59), Oregon State (a 7 seed at #57), Providence (#54), Notre Dame (a 6 seed at #53), USC (#52), Dayton (#51) and Colorado (#50).
Last year, no team got into the tournament as an at-large with a Power Ranking worse than #51 and no team was left out of the tournament with a ranking better than #44. With Dan Gavitt continuously using the terminology “best” with respect to adding at-large teams, it’s actually tough to argue with anything the committee did last season. Though we strongly believe that the committee should reward the “most deserving” teams as opposed to the “best” teams, putting such emphasis on “Power Five” conference teams by focusing on strength-of-schedule over anything else is worrisome. As a result, the 100th ranked team (Temple) gets in as an at-large, while Saint Mary’s (#29), Valparaiso (#37) and San Diego State (#39) were not included.
For what it’s worth, largely discussed Monmouth and St. Bonaventure rank #77 and #69 respectively in our Power Rankings, while ineligible teams Louisville (#16) and SMU (#18) would have both likely been five seeds or better.
Region placement does not seem to be of great importance to the committee this year, yet, according to Google Maps, to drive from Phog Allen Fieldhouse to the YUM! Center in Louisville it is actually TWO MILES SHORTER than to the United Center in Chicago (flying to Chicago is generally easier to get to than Louisville, but driving distance on fastest path-wise, Louisville is closer). So maybe it did factor more than it initially appears.
The Midwest region has the highest chance to win the championship at 33.1% and also has four teams – Michigan State (#1), Virginia (#3), Purdue (#9) and Iowa State (#13) – in the top 13 of our Power Rankings. The West, which is often weak due to regional placement of teams (and lack of elite teams in the West part of the country), is just 14.7% likely to win it all. The region does not have any team that currently ranks in the top six of our Power Rankings.
After Michigan State, Kansas, UNC, Virginia, Oregon, Villanova and Kentucky, the list of teams with at least a one percent chance to win the championship also includes: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Miami, Purdue, Texas A&M, Indiana, Duke, Iowa State and Baylor.
Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Baylor and Iowa (the best 5+ seeds with respect to chances to make the Final Four) may be sleeper national championship contenders, but they do not really qualify as Cinderella candidates (double-digit seeds who could make a deep run into the tournament). There are some double-digit seeds with decent chances of making the Sweet 16 including: 11 seed Gonzaga (27.0%), ten seed VCU (21.9%), ten seed Pitt (16.5%) and 14 seed Stephen F. Austin (16.0%). The winner of the Wichita State/Vanderbilt game between 11 seeds (both ranked in our Top 25) has a 19.2% chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. We have previously seen a 16 as likely as 16.3% to win its game against a one seed, yet this year, no 16 seed has a better than 2.0% shot at winning over a top seed and there is a 93.2% chance that all four one seeds win their first games.
There are five predicted upsets in the Round of 64 (outlined below), yet a total of ten games in which the favored team wins two thirds of the time or less, so there should be quite a few good games. The most likely 12-over-5 upset is Yale with a 26.4% chance to win over Baylor. The five seeds have a 42.9% chance of all winning so at least 12-over-5 is likely to happen even if none of the 12 seeds are favored.
South Region
Kansas is the top overall seed in the tournament. The selection committee didn’t do the Jayhawks any favors loading the South Region with seven other Top 25 teams (Villanova, Miami, Wichita State, Maryland, Cal, Vandy and Arizona), plus Iowa which is No. 26. Despite the stiff competition, KU reaches the Final Four nearly 50 percent of the time followed by Nova (20.0%) and Miami (11.8%) – the only other seeds with better than a ten percent chance to win the region.
Most Likely Final Four team: Kansas (49.0%)
Final Four Sleeper: Maryland (5.1%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Wichita State (13.2% to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 28.3%
Three Most Important Players: Frank Mason (Kansas), Peter Jok (Iowa) and Diamond Stone (Maryland)
First Round Upset: No. 9 Connecticut over No. 8 Colorado (66.8%)
Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, No. 6 Arizona over No. 11 Play-In (52.9%)
The blue bloods of college basketball (North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana) will battle it out in the East. The Tar Heels, ACC regular season and conference tournament champions, are the most likely team to emerge from what could be the most watched region. Just because they are favorites doesn’t mean UNC will roll to the Final Four. West Virginia and Indiana are Top 10 teams and Kentucky ranks No. 11.
Most Likely Final Four team: North Carolina (38.1%)
Final Four Sleeper: Indiana (9.3%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Stephen F. Austin (16.0% to make to Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 23.8%
Three Most Important Players: Brice Johnson (UNC), Tyler Ulis (Kentucky) and Devin Williams (West Virginia)
First Round Upset: None
Closest First Round Game: No. 8 USC over No. 9 Providence (51.3%)
The West is weak. The teams in this region combine to win the championship just 14.7% of the time. Though the most likely winner isn’t expected to come from the West, picking the correct Final Four participant could be the difference in winning and losing your bracket pool. Five teams (Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Duke and Baylor) have some of the best odds to make it to Houston, each team’s Final Four chances rank among the top 15 in the simulations.
Most Likely Final Four team: Oregon (33.4%)
Final Four Sleeper: Baylor (8.7%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): VCU (21.9% to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 14.7%
Three Most Important Players: Brandon Ingram (Duke), Buddy Hield (Oklahoma) and Jalen Jones (Texas A&M)
First Round Upset: No. 10 VCU over No. 7 Oregon State (64.2%)
Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, No. 9 Cincinnati over No. 8 St. Joe’s (55.6%)
The committee snubbed Michigan State as many expected the Big Ten tournament champions to receive a No. 1 seed, yet the Spartans will have the last laugh. Tom Izzo’s squad is the most likely tournament champion. With Denzel Valentine, Big Ten Player of the Year, leading the nation’s most efficient offense, Sparty will make back-to-back Final Fours.
Most Likely Final Four team: Michigan State (48.2%)
Final Four Sleeper: Purdue (9.4%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Gonzaga (27.0% likely to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 33.1%
Three Most Important Players: Jakob Poeltl (Utah), Bryn Forbes (Michigan State) and Monte Morris (Iowa State)
First Round Upsets: No. 9 Butler over No. 8 Texas Tech (54.5%)
Closest First Round Game: No. 10 Syracuse over No. 7 Dayton (52.8%)
2016 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Analysis
Bracket Odds
Predictalated Bracket
Bracket Simulator
MLB Preview
Tournament Game Picks
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