Week 2 Mid-Major Top 15 Power Rankings
125 days ago by Ari Kramer
Mid-Major Top 15
The first full week of college basketball has given us a brief sample of teams across the country, and rather than evaluating the Indianas and Kentuckys let’s take a look at the top 15 mid-majors.
These power rankings are not solely based on a team’s performance because at this point plenty of teams that will finish around .500 for the year are off to hot starts. It wouldn’t make sense to include 3-0 William & Mary while Drexel sits on the periphery. So, as the above might imply, these rankings seek a balance between performance to date and expected performance.
In the preseason, a clear big two topped the charts. Creighton returned every player save Antoine Young from last year’s team, and Gonzaga had a solid core of returners as well.
Both teams are off to hot starts, with the Bulldogs’ being slightly more impressive.
But early on, the rankings are rather volatile. A few teams that narrowly missed the cut of my preseason rankings have made huge leaps into the top 10 while four teams who cracked the list — North Texas (preseason No. 3), LIU (preseason No. 11) Detroit (preseason No. 14) and Long Beach State (preseason No. 15) — now find themselves on the outside looking in.
For clarification, any team that doesn’t belong to the Atlantic-10, C-USA, MWC or a BCS conference counts as a mid-major.
Player of the Week: Kevin Foster, who averaged 28.5 points, seven assists and five steals in wins over Simpson and St. Louis.
Team of the Week: Bucknell, who beat Purdue and George Mason en route to a 5-0 start.
15. Cal State Northridge Matadors
Preseason rank: NR
Record: 6-0
Resume-building wins: None
Cal State Northridge may lack a resume-building win, but a 6-0 start cannot be overlooked with the Matadors averaging 82.2 points per game. Siena might be the best team they’ve beaten, and three of their wins have come by an average of four points. But take note of Cal State Northridge.
14. Santa Clara Broncos
Preseason rank: NR
Record: 2-0
Resume-building wins: at St. Louis
Santa Clara is off to a hot start, ranking No. 8 nationally with 90 points per game. Kevin Foster has been scorching the nets and the return of Marc Trasolini has given the Broncos a boost.
St. Louis presented a daunting task in Santa Clara’s first game against a Division I opponent, but the Broncos dismissed the Bilikens by double-digits on the road.
13. Valparaiso Crusaders
Preseason rank: 13
Record: 3-1
Resume-building wins: None
With its top two players returning, Valpo is off to a solid start. The Crusaders lost by two at Nebraska and beat Kent State in overtime after opening the year with routs of Georgia Southern and Northern Illinois.
12. Drexel Dragons
Preseason rank: 4
Record: 1-2
Resume-building wins: None
Drexel is two overtime losses away from a perfect start. With such high expectations entering the season, the Dragons could not fall out of the top 15 despite their 1-2 start.
One bright note for Drexel: Chris Fouch is averaging 16.7 points per game while shooting 48 percent from three.
11. Brigham Young Cougars
Preseason rank: 9
Record: 2-2
Resume-building wins: None
BYU squandered its opportunities to earn resume-building wins over Florida State and Notre Dame this week, but losing to two preseason top 25 teams won’t knock the Cougars out of the top 15.
10. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Preseason rank: 7
Record: 3-2
Resume-building wins: Marshall (neutral)
South Dakota State is very close to being 5-0, but the Jackrabbits lost by three to Alabama and Hofstra. As expected, Nate Wolters is off to a hot start.
South Dakota State should win its next three games with ease as a Dec. 4 date at Minnesota approaches.
9. Lehigh Mountainhawks
Preseason rank: 8
Record: 1-2
Resume-building wins: None
Lehigh hasn’t played in anything other than a rout this year, and unfortunately for the Mountainhawks, they’ve ended up on the wrong side twice. But the losses came to Baylor and Pitt, so you can’t really knock Lehigh.
8. Davidson Wildcats
Preseason rank: 5
Record: 1-2
Resume-building wins: None
Still searching for its first win over a Division I opponent, Davidson couldn’t hold on at New Mexico and fell at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. But the Wildcats did show their potential as they took the Lobos to the wire at the Pit.
7. Illinois State Redbirds
Preseason rank: NR
Record: 3-0
Resume-building wins: at Drexel
Averaging 93 points per game, Illinois State ranks No. 4 nationally in scoring. The Redbirds thrashed Santa Barbara and Delaware State and picked up what could be a crucial win down the road, beating Drexel in Philadelphia.
6. Ohio Bobcats
Preseason rank: 12
Record: 3-0
Resume-building wins: None
Ohio doesn’t have a quality win yet, but who cares? The Bobcats are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 30 points.
5. Bucknell Bison
Preseason rank: NR
Record: 5-0
Resume-building wins: at Purdue, vs. George Mason
Winning at Purdue is never easy, even in a down year for the Boilermakers, and Bucknell went in and came out victorious. Mike Muscala has been fantastic so far. As expected, he’s leading the Bison in scoring and rebounding, but he also has a team-best 2.5 assists per game.
4. Murray State Racers
Preseason rank: 10
Record: 3-1
Resume-building wins: Auburn (neutral), St. John’s (neutral)
Murray State won’t roll into 2013 with an undefeated mark, but the Racers cannot be disappointed in their start. Even though Auburn and St. John’s won’t be at the top of their respective BCS conferences, Murray State dominated each — Auburn from start to finish, St. John’s in the last 23 minutes.
3. St. Mary's Gaels
Preseason rank: 6
Record: 3-0
Resume-building wins: None
A Thursday tilt with Drexel is the Gaels’ only game this week. St Mary’s has played very well early on, with two routs and a nine-point victory at Utah State, always a difficult place to play.
2. Creighton Blue Jays
Preseason rank: 1
Record: 3-0
Resume-building wins: vs. North Texas
North Texas dropped from these rankings, but beating the Mean Green by 20 will definitely look good on Creighton’s resume in a few months. Doug McDermott and the Blue Jays haven’t boasted as high profile of an offense. However, they’re still averaging 74 points per game and beat Presbyterian 87-58.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Preseason rank: 2
Record: 3-0
Resume-building wins: vs. West Virginia
36.6. That’s Gonzaga’s average margin of victory through three games. The Bulldogs have beaten up on Southern Utah and South Dakota, but they proved they’re the real deal with an 84-50 rout of West Virginia.
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UMass Beats Buzzer, Harvard as Part of 24-hour College Basketball Marathon
131 days ago by Ari Kramer
Chaz Williams did what he had done all game — use his plus-quickness to get into the lane. As the Harvard defense collapsed in the waning seconds of a 64-64 game, the 5-foot-9 UMass point guard hung in the air and found Sampson Carter in the corner. Carter had his feet set, knowing he’d have [...]
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Pittsburgh Sophomore John Johnson to Transfer
131 days ago by Ari Kramer
John Johnson, who hasn’t logged a minute in either of Pittsburgh’s two games to start the season, has informed Jamie Dixon he intends to transfer. If you recall, this is the second straight fall semester in which a Panther has chosen to transfer, with Khem Birch leaving for UNLV last year. Rather than speculate, let’s [...]
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Gonzaga Basketball: Defense Will Be Key for Bulldogs in 2012-13
131 days ago by Ari Kramer
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College Basketball: Florida State and 5 Teams that Disappointed to Open Season
134 days ago by Ari Kramer
Disappointing Starts
College basketball tipped off its season on Friday night, and from a general fan’s perspective, the first slate of games did not disappoint.
UConn and Michigan State played an entertaining game overseas, with Kevin Ollie starting his head coaching career with a 1-0 mark. Later, Maryland stormed back and had No. 3 Kentucky on the brink.
However, if you root for a specific team, you might not have been thrilled with your squad’s effort or outcome. Some teams, as expected, came out flat. That happens at the beginning of a season, before players gel and shake off the rust of a long offseason.
So that said, a handful of teams had disappointing performances in their respective season openers.
Florida State, coming off one of its best seasons in recent history, fell at home. To South Alabama.
North Texas couldn’t stay close with Creighton in what was pegged as one of the best mid-major games of the year.
Despite opening on the road, Drexel was expected to handle a Kent State team that lost its best player. But the Golden Flash beat the Dragons in overtime.
And Purdue and Rutgers each lost to mid-majors at home. Purdue’s loss to Bucknell is more acceptable, given the Bison’s solid core. But St. Peter’s won’t even finish in the top half of the MAAC. And Rutgers fell to the Peacocks.
Even teams that won, like Miami (Fl.) and Arkansas, had lackluster season debuts.
So here’s a look at the five most disappointing performances of opening night.
North Texas Mean Green
Tony Mitchell is currently projected as a lottery pick in the 2013 NBA draft, and his North Texas team is pegged as one of the best mid-majors this year. I have them at No. 3.
But the Mean Green couldn’t even stick with Creighton in Omaha on Friday night.
Creighton built a double-digit lead in the latter stages of the first half, and North Texas ultimately fell by 20 points.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State should never lose to South Alabama. Maybe five years ago when the Jaguars were a formidable mid-major. But not now, even though the Seminoles lost some key pieces from last year’s team.
South Alabama basically did everything better than it should have. The Jaguars got to the line 32 times, tied the rebounding battle and connected on 9-of-15 threes.
Florida State, on the other hand, shot 5-of-21 from deep.
Drexel Dragons
Drexel returned most of its players from last year’s team that controversially missed out on the NCAA tournament. Kent State, on the other hand, lost some key pieces from last year’s team.
Vegas listed the Dragons as a 8.5-point favorite on the road.
But the Golden Flash stuck around the entire game and ultimately won in overtime.
Drexel can draw positives from its defense, which held Kent State to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor and 27.3 percent from long range. But the offense was woeful.
Chris Fouch, who scored 24 points, was the team’s only double-digit scorer, and he shot just 6-of-19. As a team, Drexel went 22-of-60 from the floor and turned the ball over 16 times.
Purdue Boilermakers
A bunch of new faces headline Purdue’s roster, so the Boilermakers’ loss to a solid Bucknell team isn’t as surprising as some of the other games to make this list.
The offense really wasn’t bad. Purdue shot 45.9 percent from the floor and turned the ball over just nine times.
The defense, on the other hand, wasn’t as stout as Purdue defenses in the past. The Boilermakers forced just eight turnovers and lost the rebounding battle, though they did hold a good three-point shooting team to 20 percent.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Mike Rice told Adam Zagoria this week that he needed a productive third season at Rutgers. But 2012-13 definitely started on a sour note for the Scarlet Knights. St. Peter’s won’t even compete in the MAAC race. But the smaller Peacocks forced 17 turnovers while handing the ball over just nine times, and despite getting killed on the glass — 40-19 — left Rutgers with a win.
The Scarlet Knights couldn’t buy a bucket and managed to score just 52 points. Eli Carter and Myles Mack, last year’s leading scorers, shot a combined 4-of-19 from the floor.
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Big East Basketball: 5 Teams Ken Pomeroy Projects to Rise
135 days ago by Ari Kramer
Big East Teams Looking to Improve
With Louisville, Syracuse and Notre Dame coming off successful campaigns and returning — or bringing in — enough talent to remain elite in the Big East, other teams have not received as much of the spotlight in the weeks leading up to the season.
But several Big East programs are expected to improve after down years.
Ken Pomeroy created a ratings system based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, among other factors, that tends to be a good indicator of a team’s style and their standing among other college teams.
Every year, KenPom releases his preseason projections based on a team’s tendencies from year’s past. It’s generally not as accurate as his final rankings churn out, but we can still look to the rankings to grasp a good idea of how a team might fare in 2012-13.
Several Big East teams struggled last year, ranging from down years to persistent problems climbing out of the conference’s cellar. Pittsburgh was a top 15 team early in the year, but the Panthers spiraled out of control and didn’t even make the NIT.
St. John’s, coming off its first NCAA tournament berth in several years, suffered without Steve Lavin on the sideline and a team of new faces.
After an impressive 2010-11 in Mike Rice’s first season, Rutgers took a step back in 2011-12.
And, despite having some of the league’s most talented players, DePaul and Providence couldn’t buck the losing trend.
For different reasons, all five of the aforementioned teams are expected to improve this year. At least according to KenPom’s preseason rankings.
Take them with a grain of salt, but here’s a look at the schools’ anticipated jumps.
Pittsburgh Panthers
2011-12 KenPom Rank: 63
Preseason 2012-13 KenPom Rank: 22
Jump: 41 spots
There’s no need to detail Pittsburgh’s 2011-12 struggles and underachievement.
But even though the Panthers lost Ashton Gibbs to graduation, Jamie Dixon has reason to believe he has a top 25 team. Tray Woodall is back and — hopefully — healthy, and Central Michigan transfer Trey Zeigler joins him in the backcourt. Dixon also brought in two top recruits in James Robinson and Steven Adams, the latter of which is projected as a lottery pick in June’s NBA draft.
Defense is the primary reason for Pitt’s jump in KenPom’s projections. With Adams’ shot-blocking ability and the defensive upgrade with Zeigler at the two — let’s face it, Gibbs wasn’t the best defender — the Panthers are expected to allow just 94.2 points per 100 possessions.
DePaul Blue Demons
2011-12 KenPom Rank: 144
Preseason 2012-13 KenPom Rank: 100
Jump: 44 spots
Coming off a 12-19 season, DePaul is expected to finish in the bottom of the Big East once again. But the Blue Demons have a solid quartet of players, highlighted by Cleveland Melvin, a conference Player of the Year candidate.
Melvin is the league’s top returning scorer at 17.5 points per game. He also averaged 7.4 boards and 1.1 blocks per game as a sophomore, and DePaul’s status precluded him from the attention he’d receive on even a middle of the pack Big East squad.
If Melvin couldn’t receive adequate attention, imagine how much Brandon Young, the team’s point guard, has flown under the radar. The junior averaged 14.5 points, 4.7 assists and 1.6 steals per game last year.
KenPom anticipates a mild offensive improvement and a drastic spike in defensive efficiency from the Blue Demons.
Providence Friars
2011-12 KenPom Rank: 124
Preseason 2012-13 KenPom Rank: 78
Jump: 46 spots
Providence fans, this could be infuriating if you're of the glass half-empty breed.
With Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton and LaDontae Henton returning, the Friars have one of the Big East’s best trios. The problem is: they don’t have much else.
However, when Ed Cooley signed recruits Kris Dunn and Ricky Ledo last year, Providence had high hopes about 2012-13. But Dunn injured his shoulder and his level of potential production is in question. Then in Sept., the NCAA ruled Ledo a partial qualifier, meaning he can practice with the team but he cannot play in games.
Even if KenPom’s preseason ranking accounted for some production from Dunn this year, imagine how much the Friars would have catapulted in the rankings with an eligible Ledo.
St. John's Red Storm
2011-12 KenPom Rank: 152
Preseason 2012-13 KenPom Rank: 87
Jump: 65 spots
Moe Harkless left for the NBA, but Steve Lavin will return to the sidelines. With Lavin come Jakarr Sampson and several big men. In fact, St. John’s is anticipating such a loaded frontcourt that God’sgift Achiuwa, who averaged nine points and 5.6 rebounds last year, might redshirt to wait for one of the underclassmen to bolt for the NBA.
Additionally, D’Angelo Harrison, the league’s top scoring freshman last year, has a season under his belt and looks to build on his strong finish to 2011-12.
With more weapons both on offense and defense, St. John’s is expected to improve significantly on both fronts, according to KenPom.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2011-12 KenPom Rank: 119
Preseason 2012-13 KenPom Rank: 52
Jump: 67 spots
Yes, by KenPom’s projections, Rutgers is a top-68 team entering the season.
The promising freshman duo from St. Anthony — Eli Carter and Myles Mack — is back for its second year at Rutgers, and Kansas State transfer Wally Judge is eligible.
However, while Rutgers has reason to expect an improvement from last year, the jump might not be as big as KenPom projects. KenPom says Rutgers’ adjusted offensive efficiency will spike to 107 points per 100 possessions, up from 100.8.
With Judge’s added offense and better efficiency from Carter and Mack, both of whom didn’t shoot particularly well from the floor, perhaps Rutgers will improve offensively. But don’t expect the Scarlet Knights to take such drastic strides there.
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North Texas-Creighton: How Mean Green Can Upset Blue Jays
135 days ago by Ari Kramer
In what is being pegged as the best game you won’t see unless you live near Omaha, North Texas and Creighton are set to tip off on Friday night. The Blue Jays are widely regarded as the nation’s top mid-major, but the Mean Green are not far behind — I have them at No. 3 [...]
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Mitch Buonaguro Views Rakeem Brookins, Trenity Burdine Suspensions as Positive
136 days ago by Ari Kramer
It’s not always easy to stay positive when two of your key players are suspended, whether its for a full season or just three games. But Siena head coach Mitch Buonaguro told Mark Singelais of the Times Union Blog that he views the three-game suspensions of Rakeem Brookins and Trenity Burdine as an opportunity for [...]
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Todd Mayo Academically Ineligible: Marquette Guard Out Indefinitely
138 days ago by Ari Kramer
Marquette has announced Todd Mayo is academically ineligible and won’t practice or play for an indefinite time period. Andrew Gruman, a Marquette beat writer for FoxSportsWisconsin, was the first to tweet the news. The Golden Eagles already had to find a way to replace Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, who are no longer with the program. [...]
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Manhattan Basketball: Why Jaspers Kenpom Rank is Too Low
139 days ago by Ari Kramer
With Iona losing Scott Machado and Mike Glover and Loyola Md. losing some key pieces, Manhattan has emerged as a potential favorite to win the MAAC in 2012-13. The Jaspers won 21 games a year ago, good for a plus-15 win differential from 2010-11, and return almost every key player. Without Ashton Pankey — a [...]
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