Brian Losness-US Presswire
It is prediction time for the Mountain West Conference. In week three I was 5-1 in predicting winners. Against FCS competition the conference was 3-1 with the lone loss being the Wyoming Cowboys to the Cal Poly Mustangs.
What can we expect in week four? Several schools are beginning conference play and others are still in their non-conference slate. Who will win and who will lose? Let us take a peek at the upcoming weekend.
BYU Cougars (2-1) at 24 Boise State Broncos (1-1) Thursday 7pm Mountain
Both squads enter Thursday’s ballgame averaging only a shade over 14 points allowed. The major question for the Broncos is if their offense turned a corner in the win over Miami (OH) or if they are closer to the performance in East Lansing.
The Cougars will provide a stern challenge for Joe Southwick at QB. BYU is stingy against the run so a lot will be asked of running back D.J. Harper to help out his quarterback. Boise isn’t a slouch either on D, and that should be a cause for concern, as the Cougars struggled mightily in Salt Lake City.
Prediction: BYU 17 Boise State 24
Wyoming Cowboys (0-3) at Idaho Vandals (0-3) 3pm Mountain
Remember when Wyoming was a dark horse candidate to win the Mountain West? That horse is darker than the inside of a coffin at midnight. Quarterback Brett Smith was sorely missed in last weeks loss to the Cal Poly Mustangs. Unfortunately for the Pokes, Smith is out along with speedy receiver Robert Herron. Reserve running back Shaun Wick had a memorable three TD performance last week, but can he carry the load?
Against Idaho, another struggling program, he might be able to. Although the Cowboys are horrid against the run, but Vandals only average 44.3 a contest. Someone has to win this game. Right?
Prediction: Wyoming 24 Idaho 22
Utah State Aggies (2-1) at Colorado State Rams (1-2) 5pm Mountain
After an emotional win over the Colorado Buffaloes, the Rams have underwhelmed in losses to the North Dakota State Bison and San Jose State Spartans. The good news for coach Jim McElwain is that he gets running back Chris Nwoke back from an ankle sprain.
Offensive line is an issue for the Aggies but a trip to Ft. Collins shouldn’t expose too much against a CSU D that has been questionable. Senior corner and returner Momo Thomas is doubtful for the Rammies. Aggies QB Chuckie Keeton is dangerous running and passing.
Prediction: Utah State 31 Colorado State 20
San Jose State Spartans (2-1) at San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) 6pm Mountain
The days of assuming a win against San Jose State are over. A near miss against the Stanford Cardinal and two blowout victories, one agiainst CSU, and the Spartans have some swagger as they travel to San Diego.
Ryan Katz leads an offense that has primarily relied on running the football with an average of 239.67 a game. Both Aztec backs Adam Muema and Walter Kazee are as capable as the other at producing an effective running attack. Katz makes one or two more big plays than Spartans QB David Fales.
Prediction: San Jose State 29 San Diego State 34
New Mexico Lobos (1-2) at New Mexico State Aggies (1-2) 6pm Mountain
A battle over state bragging rights goes down in Las Cruces this weekend. The Rio Grande rivalry has been anything but with the Aggies taking the last three games. New Mexico hasn’t looked anything near effective against top tier competition. Fortunately for UNM, the Aggies do not qualify for the said label.
Quarterback B.R. Holbrook has adapted well to the run-first approach of new coach Bob Davie but the results have been lacking, especially after Holbrook was knocked out of the game in Austin. Even though the senior QB returned in week three, the results didn’t, as the offense produced only one scoring drive.
Andrew Manley leads a potent passing attack for NMSU and that might be the difference at home.
Prediction: New Mexico 24 New Mexico State 27
Cary Edmondson-US Presswire
Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-1) 6pm Mountian
It would be hard to imagine the Bulldogs would lack any confidence after a 69-14 wrecking of CU. Senior running back Robbie Rouse became the progam’s all time leading rusher in the process. The record was broken on a 94 yard scamper into the endzone.
Tulsa has averaged 44.7 a game behind a rushing attack that averages 285.7 yards a game. I give the edge to the versatility of the Dogs offense led by quarterback Derek Carr.
Prediction: Fresno State: 41 Tulsa 30
Air Force Falcons (1-1) at UNLV Rebels (0-3) 8pm Mountain
Until the Rebels show that they can actually find a way to win, it’s hard to pick them. Rebs quarterback Nick Sherry is coming off his most impressive game thus far where he threw for 351 yards three TDs and one pick.
While the Falcons have yet to face a team similar in talent level, the offense led by Connor Dietz at QB and Cody Getz at tailback had a solid showing at the Big House against Michigan. While I expect UNLV to keep this close and maybe pull off a win, I trust Falcons coach Troy Calhoun to get it done.
Prediction: Air Force 34 UNLV 27
Nevada Wolf Pack (2-1)at Hawaii Warriors (1-1) 8:30 Mountain
An old WAC rivalry continues in the Mountain West as two conference newcomers meet in Aloha Stadium. Hawaii is difficult to judge because they have been blown out by a much better USC Trojans squad, and smacked down the over matched FCS Lamar Cardinals.
The Pack struggle in the islands as they have lost past seven games played at Hawaii. Cody Fajardo has looked very comfortable in his second year at QB for head coach Chris Ault. Nevada’s issue is a propensity to give up big plays on defense.
UH Quarterback Sean Schroeder has plenty of different receiving options but the jury is out against stiffer competition. I’ll take the known commodity from Reno to win their first Mountain West game and break their losing streak in Oahu.
Prediction: Hawaii 34 Nevada 40
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James Gomez is a Pac-12 and Mountain West columnist for Rant Sports and member of the Football Writers Association of America
You can follow James on Twitter as well.
