Ohio State is a Dark Horse College Football Playoff Contender

By Sam Mattfolk @MattSamFolk on October 17, 2014

The Ohio State Buckeyes were counted out by most before the season even started.

Senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller was lost for the season in fall camp when he aggravated an injury to his throwing shoulder. Once considered a favorite to win the Big Ten alongside Michigan State, the Buckeyes expectations plummeted with redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett stepping into the starting role.

The Ohio State offense looked substandard against Navy and was even worse versus Virginia Tech as Barrett was tasked with carrying the whole offense and failed spectacularly, completing 9-of-29 attempts through the air with three interceptions (one of which was returned for a touchdown) and rushing 24 times for just 70 yards.

What a difference a month makes.

With the deflating home loss to the Hokies in the rearview mirror, the Buckeyes are back to playing the balanced-but-explosive offense typical of Urban Meyer’s very best teams, compiling 594 yards passing and 649 yards passing in blowout wins over Cincinnati and Maryland. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for the offense has been the decision-making of Barrett, who hasn’t thrown an interception in the last two weeks. If the Buckeyes can take care of the football, they will be tough to beat.

Ohio State is vulnerable through the air as the Bearcats and Terrapins both eclipsed 300 yards passing, but the Buckeye front seven has been stout against the run, giving up just 308 yards rushing on 107 attempts (2.88 YPC) since a rough outing against the Navy triple-option on opening weekend. Luckily for Meyer, the Big Ten doesn’t feature any particularly powerful passing teams.

Among Ohio State’s remaining opponents, only Rutgers and Michigan State have settled quarterback situations and steady results throwing the football, yet neither has a particularly dynamic passing game.

Ohio State and Michigan State appear to be on a collision course heading towards their big showdown in East Lansing on November 8th. The Buckeyes avoid the Big Ten West’s most dangerous teams during the regular season and have a very manageable schedule outside the matchup with the Spartans. Normally tricky games against Penn State and Michigan will feature a heavily favored Ohio State outfit against overmatched iterations of the two once-proud programs. Minnesota has an underrated defense and strong running game, but Ohio State has too much talent offensively for Minnesota to handle and should be able to bottle up Golden Gophers running back David Cobb.

The Buckeyes have a great chance to reach double-digit wins and are probably one swing game away from a trip to the Big Ten championship game. If Ohio State can beat Michigan State, they will quickly become a legitimate playoff threat. The Big Ten champion will probably need some help to be given serious consideration considering the national perception of the Big Ten as well as a lack of quality wins.

The winner of Florida State and Notre Dame will undoubtedly get a spot with no more than one loss, as would a one-loss SEC champion. To get into the playoff, Ohio State would probably need the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions to lose twice as well as no other one-loss SEC teams.

It’s very possible that the Buckeyes will miss out as the fifth or sixth team as a result of their limited resume, but college football is sure to surprise whenever things seem too predictable, and the right mix of upsets nationally could sneak an Ohio State team the entire country left for dead in September through the backdoor in the first college football playoff.

Ohio State’s march to Indianapolis continues against Rutgers Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EST.