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AAC Football: October 18 Game Predictions

AAC Football: October 18 Game Predictions

American Athletic Conference
Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference football games are on tap in Tulsa, OK, Orlando, FL and Dallas, TX on Oct. 18. But only one home team will end up on the winning side of the ledger when the dust settles on Saturday evening.

South Florida (-1.5) at Tulsa, 12:00 PM ET, Sat Oct 18, ESPNEWS

South Florida Bulls
David Manning-USA TODAY Sports


South Florida (-1.5) at Tulsa, 12:00 PM ET, Sat Oct 18, ESPNEWS

South Florida Bulls
David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Tulsa (1-5, 1-1) hasn’t won a game since a double OT victory over Tulane in their home opener on Aug. 28. The Hurricane is giving up 41 points per game. USF (2-4, 1-1) is not lighting up the scoreboard much themselves this season (19 PPG), but a steady dose of RB Marlon Mack will put the Bulls over the top in a tight one.

Prediction: USF 21, Tulsa 20
USF win probability: 54 percent
USF cover probability: 46 percent

Tulane at Central Florida (-19.5), 12:00 PM ET, Sat Oct 18, ESPNU

Central Florida Knights
Daving Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane at Central Florida (-19.5), 12:00 PM ET, Sat Oct 18, ESPNU

Central Florida Knights
Daving Manning-USA TODAY Sports

UCF (3-2, 1-0), off a 31-24 OT home win over BYU, will have no trouble with a Tulane team (2-4, 1-1) that can't stop the run. Backup QB Nick Montana will start under center for the Green Wave. Montana is the son of legendary QB Joe Montana, but Montana magic won't be enough against a UCF team that has never lost an AAC game.

Prediction: UCF 31, Tulane 10
UCF win probability: 93 percent
UCF cover probability: 54 percent

Cincinnati (-13.5) at SMU, 3:30 PM, Sat Oct 18, CBS Sports Network

Cincinnati Bearcats
Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati (-13.5) at SMU, 3:30 PM, Sat Oct 18, CBS Sports Network

Cincinnati Bearcats
Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

The Bearcats (2-3, 0-1), routed by Miami FL 55-34 last week, have now lost three straight. QB Gunnar Kiel has lived up to his advanced billing, leading a UC pass offense ranked 11th in the nation. A porous Bearcat defense, however, has been an issue all year. Winless SMU (0-5, 0-1) has deeper problems.

Prediction: Cincinnati 40, SMU 28
Cincinnati win probability: 79 percent
Cincinnati cover probability: 41 percent

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