Minnesota Bowl Game Projection

The upstart Minnesota Golden Gophers‘ surprising 8-4 season ended with a minor thud, losing to rival Wisconsin in a de-facto Big Ten West championship. Regardless, Jerry Kill led the Golden Gophers to a remarkable season and the most wins at Minnesota since 2003. The 2014 season will also mark just the second time in school history that the team has reached bowl games in three consecutive seasons (previously a five bowl run from 2002 to 2006).

Minnesota is behind a trio of double-digit win Big Ten teams in the bowl pecking order, but it is very likely that at least two out of Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin reach “New Year’s Six” bowl games. With nine-win Nebraska and perhaps one of the top tier being the only teams rated higher than the Golden Gophers, Jerry Kill’s team is assured to reach one of the Big Ten’s “Tier One” bowl games. These games include the Citrus Bowl, Holiday Bowl and Outback Bowl.

Nebraska went to the Citrus Bowl in 2011 and 2012, making it unlikely that they would be sent to Orlando three times in four seasons. If Wisconsin falls to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game, they would still be at worst the third team in the top tier of Big Ten bowl tie-ins. The Badgers played in the Citrus Bowl a season ago, so that would increase the chances of Minnesota to get slotted into that bowl game.

The Citrus Bowl has historically pitted the top non-major bowl qualifiers from the Big Ten and SEC, yet with the Big Ten’s new tier system, the Golden Gophers may be the top choice for Orlando. Jerry Kill can expect a formidable foe as the SEC still intends to send one of, if not the best team remaining to square off with the Big Ten. This season, Alabama appears primed for the College Football Playoff and Mississippi State will likely make another of the “New Year’s Six” games. That leaves the SEC entrant a likely choice between SEC Champion Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss. As Georgia played in Orlando in 2012, the game will probably be decided between Missouri or Ole Miss. Considering the big Egg Bowl win and the fact that Missouri would be coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, Ole Miss is the best pick to represent the SEC against the Big Ten and Minnesota.

Projection: Citrus Bowl vs. Ole Miss