Is New York Giants QB Eli Manning Now a Hall of Fame Quarterback?
Five years ago, the question would have been crazy. Nobody would have dared to ask it, because, well, it would have been a ridiculous proposal.
Eli Manning was nothing more than the younger brother of Peyton Manning, then a two-time Most Valuable Player and a Super Bowl champion.
But then Eli rebounded from a dismal 2007 season to lead the Giants to an improbable Super Bowl victory, highlighted by a last-minute game-winning touchdown to defeat the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
He produced his top statistical season in 2011, throwing for almost 5000 yards and 29 touchdown passes. In the postseason, he led the Giants to yet another improbable Super Bowl victory, highlighted by a last-minute game-winning touchdown to defeat the AFC’s top-seeded New England Patriots.
After eight seasons in the league, Eli has thrown for 27579 yards and 185 touchdowns. He’s led the Giants to the postseason five times, winning two Super Bowls. He’s played in two Pro Bowls and he has started every game since his rookie season (119 games in a row, the third longest streak by a quarterback in league history).
He’s no Peyton Manning but Eli has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
But will it be enough for him to eventually earn a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
Let’s say Eli Manning plays six more full seasons. He would need to average 3737 passing yards per season to reach 50,000, which would rank him about 6th to 8th in league history (based on projections for current quarterbacks). He’ll likely end with about 320 touchdowns, also good for a 5-7 all-time ranking.
Those numbers look very impressive, and given his two Super Bowl rings, should be enough for him to reach the Hall of Fame.
But here’s the other side of the argument.
Eli posted below average statistical seasons in each of his first four seasons. He was good in 2008, very good in 2009, mediocre in 2010, and very good in 2011. He’ll likely finish his career with a passer rating around 85 (he’s at 82.1 right now, so that’s a generous projection). He’s never earned an MVP vote (or even come close), and I’m not sure he ever will.
That’s not the resume of a Hall of Famer.
This is the era of the quarterback. Look at your big four quarterbacks in the league. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers are shattering records every season. They’ve all thrown for at least 45 touchdowns in a season. They regularly post triple-digit passer ratings. They’ll probably all end with well over 50,000 passing yards.
They’ve all played well regularly in the postseason (Peyton is the lone exception, but I don’t think anyone is questioning his Hall of Fame credentials).
Notice that I said played well. I didn’t say win.
Postseason wins and losses is what quarterbacks these days are judged on, which baffles me because football is such a team game that no quarterback can ever win or lose a game just by himself.
Eli Manning is a David Tyree and Mario Manningham drop (or an Asante Samuel interception or Wes Welker catch) away from having zero Super Bowl rings. Two plays and everything could be changed.
There are not two plays that could take Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees, and knock them out of Hall of Fame contention. (It’s too early to evaluate Aaron Rodgers.)
The same goes for the rest of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Steve Young, Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach. None of those is a pair of plays away from not even being in the Hall of Fame discussion. That’s because they performed year after year after year.
Eli has not.
In his career, Drew Brees has led his teams to an average of 30.6 points per game in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers is at 30.5 points per game. Kurt Warner is 29.6. Ben Roethlisberger is 26.2. Tom Brady is 24.6.
Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb are at 22.4 and 22.3, and both of those quarterbacks have reputations (whether fair or not) for coming up small in big games.
What about Eli Manning? Well he’s at 20.1 points per game.
In the four biggest games of his life, he led the Giants to 23, 17, 20, and 21 points. He’s led the Giants to more than 24 points in exactly one of his 11 postseason games.
Talk about Adam Vinatieri bailing Tom Brady out in two Super Bowl victories, and I’ll talk about a Giants defense that produced an overtime turnover in each of Eli’s two conference championship game victories, or wide receivers who made sensational grabs in the closing moments of the Super Bowl.
As for his record-tying eight fourth quarter comebacks this season, again, that doesn’t mean he’s a Hall of Famer.
Look at your top seasons ever for fourth quarter comebacks. Jake Delhomme in 2003. Dan Pastorini in 1978. Don Majkowski in 1989. Bernie Kosar in 1986. Peyton Manning in 1999 and 2009. Jake Plummer in 1998. Brian Sipe in 1979. Tom Brady in 2003.
Those aren’t your all-time great seasons by quarterbacks. With the exception of Peyton in 2009, those are good seasons by quarterbacks who played for competitive teams that frequently found a way to win close games.
Why don’t Rodgers and Brees and Brady lead their team to as many fourth quarter comebacks? Because they’re so good that they have their team up by 21 entering the fourth quarter.
Find me a statistic for the amount of times a quarterback played well enough to get pulled before the end of the game. That’s a lot more heroic than a quarterback who wins a 17-14 game on a last-minute touchdown drive.
A win is still a win. But the all-time great ones win big. I don’t think there’s any denying that.
Now 2011 might have been the start of a statistical streak in which Eli Manning tops 4500 yards and comes close to 30 touchdowns every year until he’s 36 or 37.
If he does, then we’ll have to completely re-evaluate his Hall of Fame chances.
Although to be fair, I can’t ignore the fact that he has two of the top seven or eight wide receivers in the NFL, and perhaps the best third receiver in the league.
But regardless of what he does over the next few seasons, eight-year NFL veteran Eli Manning is not yet deserving of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
No way.
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Listing the average points per game for each quarterback is so relative to their situations….how bout mention the fact that Eli has almost exclusively been in a run first offense that chews up clock and lessens possessions? He hasn’t had to score a ton of points because of that AND his defense…and I’d argue that that has helped make his defense look so much better than it’s ever really been.
The fourth quarter comebacks is not so cut and dry as you seem to indicate…you contradict two arguments when you list all the points per game then say scoring a bunch of points is more impressive than 4th quarter comebacks…Your argument for the ppg all being higher than Eli’s is that those QBs are playing well and not winning championships and Eli has been lucky because of his defense, but then you say Rodgers and Brees don’t get fourth quarter comebacks because their teams are always way ahead…well which is it? you can’t have both…
Most of Eli’s comebacks were him bailing out his defense..not the other way around.
You say you cannot pick plays out of those guys’ careers…Well you can do that with Tom Brady, I’d say the tuck rule play and those three field goals hit by Vinatieri fall under that description.
Brady was not very impressive in terms of statistics until four or five years in to his career…you could say the same for Drew Brees, who spent five average seasons in San Diego, and Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t even play for the first three seasons of his career. How do you know how he would have held up if he was thrown in to the fire? This holds true for Joe Montana, John Elway, Steve Young…NONE of these quarterbacks had great numbers in their first several seasons…
Maybe he’s not a Hall of Famer at the moment…but pending a career ending injury he will be…..you seem to make the case that he will never be a Hall of Fame QB…then say at the end that he isn’t right now…and that shouldn’t be the question…obviously he’s not retiring tomorrow.
This is a little ridiculous. You shouldn’t get into hypotheticals. What if Tyree missed this or what if Manningham missed that, it’s a moot point. Sure Eli may have been a mistake or two away from having zero rings but the fact is he didn’t make those mistakes so they shouldn’t even be brought up in a hypothetical manner. You also bring up Manning’s inconsistency and how his stats aren’t up to par with some other QB’s but if you take a look at Rivers or Romo, they both have great stats but if we’re to take a look at their careers, I doubt you would say they have been more successful than Eli. You also go on to say that Eli has had the Bessie of the best wide receivers but Nicks and Cruz are very young and the argument could be made that if another QB was throwing the ball to them, it’s possible they may not have had the lucrative season/seasons that they’ve had. (look at Steve Smith) Eli also was the main factor in both of his superbowl wins and that is why he won two SBMVP’S. If you want to say the defense and running game got him his first one I would disagree. It was that hypothetical “what if he missed” play to Tyree you mentioned and the two td’s he had that got home the first one, and it was the 30 for 40 passing with a TD and no int’s that got him his second. Between Eli’s two superbowl wins, how many of the Giants made it to the pro bowl? I think it’s something like 3 and I’m talking about both the offense with some of the best wide receivers, and that great defense you say bailed him out. Eli prolly isn’t hall of fame bound yet but you make it sound like he hasn’t got a chance to make it. I’d say as long as Eli doesn’t turn into JaMarcus Russell and he is able to finish his career, he an absolute hall of famer
Congratulation Eli Manning and all team.Great PLAYER AND GREAT TEAM!!!