Last week, I discussed the Miami Marlins’ Josh Johnson as a trade target that the New York Yankees may/should look into. While most of the signs point to the Miami Marlins retaining their ace, there are factors that suggest that a trade is not 100% out of the question. That was last week’s flavor. This week I want to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright. Read on…
Why Adam Wainwright?
This is simple. When healthy, Wainwright is the consummate starting pitcher. He gives you tons of innings (233 and 230.1 in 2009 and 2010, respectively), racks up K’s (8.19 and 8.32 K/9), keeps the ball on the ground (50.7% and 51.6%) and keeps the ball in the park (32 HR combined between ’09 and ’10). He’ll be 31 in August and while that is obviously less preferable than being in your mid-late 20′s, you still have to figure that he has another half decade of top-of-the-rotation production. One reason is that his game isn’t too reliant on pure power and the second is that the Major League mileage on his arm has yet to reach the 1000 inning mark. Oh yeah, by the way. his career walk rate sits at a tidy 2.56.
As I just touched on, Wainwright doesn’t achieve his results with a particularly overpowering fastball (average fastball over career has been 90.6 mph), but he mixes in a slider at 84.8 mph and a knee-buckling (Carlos Beltran’s knees are still wobbling) curve at 73.6 mph. He dabbles with a change up also but it only accounts for 8.1% of his offerings. Most importantly he commands his arsenal as well as just about anybody. You saw the numbers in the previous paragraph – piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes is a very good recipe for success even before anything else is added. It’s like eating the butter and sugar mixture before adding the rest of the ingredients to bake a cake. Maybe its not really like that at all, but its not like butter and sugar would taste bad. Anyway, back to baseball…
Why MIGHT the Yankees Be Able to Pry Adam Wainwright Away from the St. Louis Cardinals?
Well, unfortunately, Adam Wainwright seems even less likely to get moved than Josh Johnson. Not only is Wainwright making less ($21 million over the next two years) than Josh Johnson – for a team that might end up spending more than Johnson’s - but he also is recovering from a serious surgical operation. The Cardinals are not going to look to move him at this point when it would have to be at a discount. This may seem like the same situation as Josh Johnson, but while the Marlins could conceivably pull the trigger partially due to fear of a future shoulder injury, the Cardinals can probably look at Wainwright’s Tommy John surgery as a one time thing.
Let’s look at two things though. The first is Albert Pujols. The Cardinals have to have Phat Albert if they plan on contending for another banner in 2012 and beyond, but the cost is going to be big. Does Pujols’ contract eventually make it difficult for the Cardinals to pay Wainwright $9 million in 2012 and $12 million in 2013? Eh, probably not. Other than Matt Holliday, there isn’t really anybody else on the roster that is shaping up to become an albatross so the front office shouldn’t have too many financial hurdles to overcome.
The second consideration is that the Cards won it all this season without Wainwright. This isn’t to suggest that John Mozeliak is going to all of a sudden come to the false realization that his team doesn’t need Wainwright in the rotation, but doesn’t that make it a bit easier to pull the trigger if the right deal comes along? The 2011 rotation that was part of the World Series celebration probably won’t return fully intact, but there are a few options when it comes to replacing a guy like Edwin Jackson who may depart via free agency.
Final Thoughts
Admittedly, I thought that Wainwright’s options were worth more than they are – somewhere in the $20 million range each year. Even if Albert Pujols does get the ridiculous contract that he’s looking for and deserves, the Cardinals will still probably find a way to pay for Wainwright’s services. The St. Louis Cardinals have no reason to gauge the trade market for their ace.
From the New York Yankees perspective, Adam Wainwright is a guy that Brian Cashman and the front office should consider making a run at. There is risk because he is coming off of elbow surgery and even though the operation (and rigorous rehab process) seem to make pitchers more effective, you always have to be a bit concerned with how a guy will respond once he returns to the hill. If the Yanks are confident enough to take the gamble and willing to pay the price they could perhaps land the second ace that they’ve been looking for.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one though.
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There is absolutely zero chance that the Cardinals will trade Wainwright. Why? He’s a fan favorite. Carpenter is a year older. The rotation, as demonastrated in the playoffs, is not exactly a strength. The Cardinals just paid him a ton of money while he’s been recovering from Tommy John surgery. What do the Yankees have that would be of interest to the Cardinals. The Cardinal outfield is set, relievers are set and most of the infield is set. Starting pitching needs to be addressed and you can’t strengthen your starting pitching by trading your number #1 or #2. Cardinal fans would go nuts if Wainwright was traded.
I don’t really like trying to get into specific trade packages, but you’re probably right about the pieces not matching up too well. The Yankees wouldn’t even be able to dangle Jesus Montero if they were inclined to do so since the Cards have catcher locked up and will probably have 1B locked up as well. As I mentioned I don’t think this is a move that is likely to go down, but its definitely one that the Yankees should approach the Cardinals about. At least talk to Mozeliak and see what the price is.
Wainwright is an interesting option, I like the idea that both he and C.C can go deep into games. Now when the Yanks run through that bullpen because Burnett only went 3 innings, you can have some peace of mind knowing that you will have 2 days to rest them. I still like the idea of going after Josh Johnson, perhaps the most underrated pitcher because of those injuries.
Yea, that would be huge. And then if/when you get to the playoffs you know you have two horses taking the hill to open the series. Even though acquiring Josh Johnson would be a long shot, I still think the chances of that are better than the Yanks prying Adam Wainwright from the Cards.