It’s amazing that a player can be considered top 5 at his position, and still call his season a disappointment. Yet that’s exactly what happened to Alex Rodriguez. In 2011 A-Rod played in 99 games, hit 276/362/461 and ranked 4th among 3B in WAR with 4.2. In an era where offense is down, these are pretty impressive numbers for any hitter. But Rodriguez isn’t any player – he’s one of the greatest infielders of his generation, and possibly of all time.
It’s tough to believe that Rodriguez is already 36, as he made his debut back in 1994. You can see the signs of aging starting to affect him, as he’s no longer capable of playing 140+ games a season. His last 900+ OPS season was in 2009, and it’s unlikely he’ll come close to those numbers again. At least, that’s what I thought. Rodriguez, however, doesn’t think that’s the case :
For even Rodriguez thinks the key to Yankees self-improvement is not something general manager Brian Cashman can find in the marketplace.
“The Yankees made two big moves this offseason,” Rodriguez told The Post by phone. “Keeping CC, and I expect to be who I have been in the past.”
Can A-Rod return to hitting like he did in his prime? I don’t think so. We’ve seen a steady decline in his power – the past three years his ISO has dropped from 245, to 236 and finally down to 185. For the record, his career ISO is 265, and he hasn’t hit above that since back in 2008. So when you factor in A-Rod’s health, it’s unlikely he’ll come close to hitting 30 home runs.
The news isn’t all bad though, as Rodriguez still retains his excellent plate discipline. His walk and strikeout rates were similar to his career averages, so he should be excellent at getting on base. Between 09-11 he averaged a 277 batting average, and he should have no problem reaching that again in 2012.
Typically A-Rod’s defence at third has been below average, a result of him coming off various surgery. It’s unlikely he will be a plus defender at the hot corner this season, but he shouldn’t be a liability either.
The biggest factor is going to be how healthy Rodriguez is. If he can play in 130 games, he might be able to make good on his promise. Another injury shortened season, and the Yankees will begin cringing at the thought of A-Rod sticking with the team until 2017.
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