Predicting the Final Score of Packers vs. Saints

By Justin Patrick @calling_allfans on October 24, 2014

The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will go head to head in New Orleans on Sunday Night Football this week. The Packers (particularly their offense) are hotter than Kate Upton right now, while the Saints are 2-4 and haven’t won a game on the road yet this season. Despite that, the Packers are one-point underdogs for Sunday’s game.

That line may seem insane given the fact the Packers have won their last four games (and five of their last six) averaging over 36 points per game in those four consecutive wins and given that New Orleans’ only two wins this season have come at home against the Minnesota Vikings (2-5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) in OT. Most fans would assume the Packers would run away with this game, because they have clearly looked like the better team this season, especially of late. But remember, picking against the Saints in the Superdome is usually not wise, and the Packers are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games against New Orleans. The Saints are 14-1 in their last 15 primetime home games, winning by more than 20 points per game in those 14 victories. Three of the Saints’ losses this season were by a combined six points: 37-34 in OT to the Atlanta Falcons, 26-24 to the Cleveland Browns and 24-23 to the Detroit Lions.

But the Packers’ offense seems to be able to do whatever it wants right now, and QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Jordy Nelson, WR Randall Cobb and RB Eddie Lacy look good.

One thing we know with certainty is there will be points aplenty Sunday night. In the last seven meetings between the Saints and Packers, the over is 7-0, and in Green Bay’s last eight away games prior to a bye week, the over is 8-0. The over/under is set at 55 points for Sunday night’s game. Expect these teams to combine for more than 55 points, but will the Packers continue their hot streak, or will the Saints continue their winning ways at home?

Both Rodgers and Saints QB Drew Brees (the Saints’ x-factor on Sunday) are more than capable of doing their part to put up points for their teams, even if Brees hasn’t been quite up to his usual standards this season. Brees has thrown for 1,916 yards this season (fourth most), but he also has thrown seven INTs (third most) with only 11 TDs (11th). Rodgers has thrown for less yards than Brees, 1,674 (14th), but he has only one INT (tied for fewest) and 18 TDs (third). Both QBs are certainly capable of playing great on Sunday.

More than likely the Saints will be missing two RBs for Sunday’s matchup. Pierre Thomas (rib/shoulder) sat out Thursday’s practice, and Khiry Robinson missed his second straight practice on Thursday because of a forearm injury he sustained on the road at Detroit. TE Jimmy Graham is expected to play (shoulder) but be limited again as he was against Detroit. Packers safety Morgan Burnett (calf) and CB Sam Shields (knee) both missed practice on Thursday, and RB James Starks (ankle) was limited. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players.

The Packers’ defense is giving up 362.7 yards per game (19th), and the Saints are allowing 373.7 yards per game (21st). The Packers are allowing opposing teams to score 21.0 points per game (tied for ninth,) and the Saints are giving up 27.5 points per game (28th). Green Bay is fifth against the pass and 31st against the rush, and the Saints are 28th against the pass and 11th against the rush. The Packers’ defense may not be great, but it is better than the Saints’ D.

The sexy pick is to take New Orleans in the kind of, sort of upset, and there are some valid reasons to think the Saints will win Sunday night; but don’t over-think this. The game will be close, but the Packers are the better team right now.

Prediction: Packers 35, Saints 31

Justin Patrick is a New England Patriots writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @calling_allfans, like him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. You can also email him at [email protected]