NFL Buffalo Bills

NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: Buffalo Bills’ Scenarios

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By @GregSulik

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The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL this season, and the fact that they are sitting at 7-5 at this late point in the season has exceeded most expectations. The Bills are currently 8th overall in the AFC, missing out on the last Wild Card spot due to tiebreakers.

We’ll start with the division, where the Bills are two games behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East and have already lost once to the Pats. The Bills close the season in Foxboro, but the odds of that game determining the division title are very slim. The Bills play at the Denver Broncos and home against the Green Bay Packers the next two weeks, and it is vital they win at least one of those games. However, New England has a much easier schedule and could easily seal up the division before the Bills get a crack at them.

That leaves the Wild Card race, where the Bills currently trail the San Diego Chargers, Miami Dolphins, and Kansas City Chiefs while leading the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns. All of those teams except the 8-4 Chargers have a 7-5 record, so every game is crucial. There are still four games between AFC North teams this season, as well as four additional head to head matchups between Wild Card contenders (including the Houston Texans). Those games will create a lot of separation, and the Bills will be impacted by all of those results.

Obviously every team has their own challenges down the stretch, but the difficulty of the Bills’ schedule puts them in a tough spot. They face arguably the three best teams in the NFL over the final quarter of the season, with only the Oakland Raiders as a break. At a bare minimum the Bills are going to need to be 9-7 to make the playoffs, which means springing at least one big upset.

The Bills rank 5th in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense, and they are going to need their defense to be elite to win at least one of those games against the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots, all of whom rank in the top seven in total offense and top five in scoring offense. Offensively, the Bills have to play turnover free football and score above their average to get the wins they need.

As nice a story as the Bills have been this season, their late season schedule looks like it will be their downfall. The Bills simply aren’t equipped to compete with elite teams, and they’re more likely to finish 8-8 than get the wins they need to steal a Wild Card spot. Other teams in the AFC have easier roads, and the Bills will need at least one and probably two major upsets to stay in playoff contention.

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