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NFL Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: Cincinnati Bengals’ Scenarios

By @GregSulik

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The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t been the most convincing team at times this year, but at this late stage in the season their 8-3-1 record has them atop the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns all have 7-5 records, and there are several other teams that could influence the Bengals’ hopes if they were to end up in the Wild Card race.

We’ll start with the division, where the Bengals put the Ravens in a tough spot by defeating them twice. The Ravens would need to finish with an outright better record than the Bengals to win the division, something Cincy can easily avoid by winning games (duh). However, the Ravens don’t have the hardest schedule in the world and could finish 11-5, which would win them the division over a 10-5-1 Bengals team (a very realistic record). More complex are the scenarios involving the Steelers, who the Bengals haven’t played yet, and the Browns, who the Bengals lost to.

Cincinnati plays at home against the Steelers this week, then at the Browns, home against the Denver Broncos, and at the Steelers. If the Bengals win two of those divisional games, they should be in pretty good shape in the AFC North. Two or more divisional losses, however, and Cincinnati could find themselves in the Wild Card race.

Given that it’s the only home game of the three, it is crucial that the Bengals beat the Steelers this week. That win would take away the risk of getting swept by the Steelers while ensuring at least a .500 record in the division. If the Bengals were to win the next two games, they would most likely win the AFC North. It is a little early to tell for sure whether the Bengals can actually win the division, but the next two weeks should give us a pretty concrete answer.

Looking at the hypothetical scenarios off that, let’s assume the Bengals win the division with a record of either 10-5-1 or 11-4-1. The issue would then become whether the Bengals could beat out the Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and New England Patriots for a bye. Given that the Bengals have already lost to the Colts and Patriots, a bye is very unlikely. When those losses are added to the difficulty of their schedule, the most likely scenario for the Bengals is the No. 4 seed and probable matchup with the San Diego Chargers.

The other hypothetical is that the Bengals only win one of their final four games to finish 9-6-1, or that they lose to the Steelers twice and don’t win the division despite a 10-5-1 record. The latter scenario would almost certainly lead to a Wild Card berth and a rematch with Pittsburgh, but the former would cast serious doubt on the Bengals’ playoff chances. There are four remaining games between AFC North teams as well as four additional head to head games between AFC Wild Card contenders. Some of those games will obviously end up being elimination games, and all of them will impact every team in the Wild Card race.

With eight legitimate Wild Card contenders in what is sure to be a very messy race, the Bengals obviously want to stay above the fray and win the AFC North. They have total control over their own destiny in that regard, and winning two of the three divisional games they have left would almost certainly win them the division, barring the Ravens scenario mentioned previously.

The Bengals may not have been dominating teams, but they have won five of their last six, including three straight on the road. When they play up to their abilities, the Bengals are clearly the best team in the AFC North. They need to find that extra level down the stretch, because they can’t afford to get dragged down into the Wild Card race. The next two weeks are absolutely crucial, and they will tell us quite a bit about the Bengals’ playoff aspirations.

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