Breaking Down the Kansas City Chiefs' Playoff Scenarios: Week 14 Edition

With back-to-back losses, including a humiliating defeat to the lowly Oakland Raiders, the Kansas City Chiefs now find themselves on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. With a 7-5 record, Kansas City is part of a six-way tie for the final Wild Card spot, meaning they are in the thick of the playoff hunt and have a realistic chance of returning to the postseason if they can get things turned around over the final four games of the season.

Any hope of the Chiefs winning the division is all but lost after last week’s loss to the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs would have to win all four of their remaining games while hoping the Broncos lose at least three of their final four, and that is an unlikely scenario considering the way the Broncos have played in recent weeks. That means Kansas City’s lone hope of making the playoffs will be as a Wild Card.

Currently, the Miami Dolphins hold the final Wild Card spot by virtue of winning a tiebreaker among the six AFC teams that are 7-5. However, if the Chiefs can make their way into a two-team tie with the Dolphins, they would win after beating Miami in a head-to-head meeting earlier this season. A win over the San Diego Chargers, who are currently 8-4, in Week 17 would give the Chiefs a tiebreaker advantage over the Chargers if those two teams end up tied at season’s end. Kansas City also owns a head-to-head win over the Buffalo Bills and has a chance to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, two other teams that also hold a 7-5 record. The Chiefs could potentially have a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over four of the seven other competitors for the two Wild Card spots, giving them a distinct advantage.

Of course, it may not be that simple if more than two teams are tied at the end of the season. Ideally, Kansas City would win all four games remaining, which would likely be enough to get them into the playoffs; however, that may not be possible. At the very least, the Chiefs need to beat Pittsburgh and San Diego in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively. A loss in those games would hurt Kansas City’s record and deprive them of a potential tiebreaker advantage with both teams, something they can’t afford in such a tight race. Those two games, as well as a Week 15 game against Oakland, take on added importance because they are conference games. Conference record is another potential tiebreaker in the playoff hunt and is actually the reason why Kansas City is currently No. 7 in the AFC, the first spot outside of the playoffs.

The bottom line is that the Chiefs need to finish strong and win games down the stretch, because every game during the final month of the season will be more important than the previous week. If there’s a game Kansas City can afford to lose and still reach the postseason, it’s this week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, as it’s out of conference. Even if the Chiefs don’t win out down the stretch, if they can at least win their games inside the AFC, they will put themselves in great position to win a Wild Card spot thanks to tiebreakers with several of their AFC competitors.

Bryan Zarpentine is a New York Mets writer at www.RantSports.com.  Like him on Facebook, follow him on twitter @BZarp and add him on Google.