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Separating Fact From Fiction in the NFL Playoff Picture

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The Green Bay Packers could miss the playoffs. That’s right. The Packers could be sitting at home on their couches come January, watching some 7-9 team from the NFC South host a playoff game. Just a few days ago, Green Bay was the de facto #1 team in the NFL. Then they were somehow beaten, convincingly, by the Buffalo Bills. Now the Pack find themselves looking up at the Detroit Lions in the NFC North standings needing to win out to secure a playoff birth. From top of the class to nearly failing in one day.

Welcome to the 2014 NFL Playoffs.

NFL Playoff Tickets are at the top of everyone’s Christmas list this year. But which fan bases will see their teams play in January? That’s anyone’s guess. The playoff picture is still incredibly murky with two weeks left. But let’s attempt to separate fact from fiction heading into Week 16.

A few teams – the Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Lions and Cardinals – have already punched their tickets for January. That covers three of the AFC’s divisions. The fourth, the AFC North, may not be sorted out until the final whistle of Week 17.

Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore are all bunched up in the three remaining playoff positions. Each team has nine wins, but Cincinnati, thanks to a sister-kissing tie with the Carolina Panthers, has a half game lead on the rest. The Bengals slim lead will be tested this week as they have Broncos tickets. With Denver this week followed by the Steelers, Cincinnati has a much tougher final pair of games than either division rival.

That leaves the door open for the sleeper in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a game back of the pack with a record of 8-6. But after their surprising yet dominant victory over Green Bay, it looks like Buffalo can beat anyone, including their Week 17 opponent, the Patriots. Buffalo’s defense is playing incredibly right now, so they definitely have a chance to win out and punch their playoff ticket. But a 4-6 conference record will almost certainly cost them all the tiebreakers, especially without a head-to-head win over any of the other wild card contenders.

AFC Prediction: The Steelers win the AFC North and the #3 seed. They host the Bengals in Round 1. The Ravens settle for the #5 seed and earn themselves Colts tickets the first week of the postseason.. New England takes the #1 seed while the Broncos have to settle for #2. Will the Broncos have to book Patriots tickets before they can make it back to the Super Bowl? We’ll have to wait to find out.

Over the in NFC, things are much less certain. Like the AFC, there are seven teams vying for six spots. But in the NFC, all six spots are still up for grabs. The Cardinals have continued to inhabit the top spot even though they are on their ninth string QB at this point. They have Seahawks tickets this weekend however. Their time at the top of the NFC and the division has most likely come to an end.

The Saints, Falcons, and Panthers are all vying for division title in the South, though none of those teams deserve a playoff spot. This division will likely be decided in the Superdome on Sunday. The Falcons will look for the season sweep of the Saints and the inside track to the postseason. There’s something so wrong about a team making the playoffs with a losing record. The Saints owe it to all of us to finish 8-8. At the bottom of the playoff picture, the Eagles are on the outside looking in thanks to a resounding loss at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys Sunday Night. The Eagles will need to win out to give themselves any kind of shot at grabbing a playoff berth. Is the world ready for Mark Sanchez in the playoffs once again? Most likely not.

The Cowboys are once again in control of their own playoff fate late in the season. The last three years, the Cowboys needed a Week 17 win to make the postseason. Each time, they failed to book a ticket. This year, the Cowboys are a light years better team, but they find themselves likely needing to win in Weeks 16 and 17 to make the playoffs. That doesn’t seem very fair especially when you consider the best running back in the game this season, DeMarco Murray, just had surgery to repair a broken hand.

The way the Cowboys make the playoffs with 11 wins is if the Eagles happen to falter on the road at New York or Washington, or if the Packers fall to the Lions on the last day of the season. The only tiebreak Dallas can hold is a better record in common games than Green Bay. This year’s NFC playoff seeding will be determined by observations that obscure.

NFC Prediction: Dallas holds onto the #3 seed and books themselves Lions tickets in the Wild Card round. New Orleans gets to 8 wins, but falls at home to the Cardinals’ Defense. Seattle takes the top spot thanks to their Week 1 win over #2 seed Green Bay.

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