In the NFL, March 10, 2015, is one of the year’s most notable dates, marking the commencement of free agency featuring superstars such as Dez Bryant, Ndamukong Suh, DeMarco Murray and Jason Pierre-Paul.
But another significant, franchise-shaping window officially opened Sunday, when the 2014 regular season ended. Clubs earnestly contacted the agents of prospective head coaches and general managers, the men who will most dramatically impact where the aforementioned free agents and incoming rookies will land.
It’s arguably the most chaotic time of the year, with owners fervently creating openings and aggressively trying to fill them, although many candidates are under contract to playoff teams.
It’s trendy for a club with a coaching vacancy to bring in the “hot coordinator,” appeasing owners and fans that they’re serious about “changing the culture” and “identifying” the next Bill Belichick.
But that’s not reality.
There’s more to a good candidate than where his unit ranked, how many Pro Bowl players he coached, where he’s worked.
This offseason, for instance, clubs in need of a coach are enamored with Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn or Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
All three of those men could wind up being brilliant head coaches.
But they also could be colossal disappointments.
The challenge for owners is to discern whether Gase is truly an “offensive genius” or a beneficiary of Peyton Manning’s brilliance, whether Quinn’s elite defense is of his design or more due to general manager John Schneider’s crafty personnel moves.
Because not all successful assistants can cut it as a head coach.
The truth is, no one is really ready to become an NFL head coach. Each candidate puts together a binder or develops a PowerPoint to flesh out their leadership style, their practice philosophy and their credentials. But there’s nothing that can prepare them for the litany of decisions that come with being a head coach, from picking the date, time and even menu for a sponsorship luncheon, to what patches will be on the team’s uniforms. There’s also no simulator for critical in-game decisions, like when to go for it on fourth down or when to call that final timeout.
More often then not, the “hot coordinator” is less likely to be the next Mike Tomlin or Mike McCarthy, and more likely to be the next Marty Mornhinweg or Dennis Allen.
Oftentimes, a head coach makes mistakes and thrives on the second go-round, a la Belichick, Tom Coughlin and Pete Carroll. If he’s learned from his mistakes in Denver, for instance, Josh McDaniels could be the latest to make the most of a rare second chance.
So what should owners be focusing in on? Here are my three keys:
That’s a lot to ask, which is why so few enjoy success and fewer sustain success.
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